Oil & Energy
World’s Recoverable Oil Resources Shrinks By 9%
Every year and following the publication of the BP Statistical Review, Rystad Energy releases its own assessment to provide an independent, solid and clear comparison of how the world’s energy landscape changed last year. Our 2021 review deals a major blow for the size of the world’s remaining recoverable oil resources, but it also shows that oil production and consumption can align with climate goals.
Rystad Energy now estimates total recoverable oil resources at 1,725 billion barrels, a significant reduction of last year’s estimate of 1,903 billion barrels. Out of this total, which shows our estimate of how much oil is technically recoverable in the future, about 1,300 billion barrels are sufficiently profitable to be produced before the year 2100 at a Brent real oil price of $50 per barrel.
“In this scenario, global production of oil and natural gas liquids will fall below 50 million barrels per day by 2050. Exploring, developing, processing and consuming this amount of commercially extractable oil will lead to gross greenhouse gas emissions of less than 450 gigatonnes of CO2 from now until 2100. This is compliant with IPCC’s carbon budget for global warming limited to 1.8?C by 2100,” says Rystad Energy’s Head of Analysis, Per Magnus Nysveen.
This year’s review of global recoverable oil resources is based on resources modelled at well level rather than field level. This more detailed approach has removed 178 billion barrels from the expected accounts as the confidence level for decline rates has increased with the amount of new information gathered.
Our updated report also includes revisions for proved reserves. Here Rystad Energy applies a consistent set of conservative probabilities, as opposed to official reporting by authorities which is deemed less consistent. Among other findings, we see significant differences among OPEC members on the longevity of proved reserves, ranging from well below 10 years for some members to almost 20 years for Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In terms of absolute volumes removed from non-OPEC producers, remaining recoverable resources in the US are now reduced to 214 billion barrels, losing 30 billion barrels from last year’s estimate. China suffers the second-largest loss with its remaining recoverable resources now limited to 50 billion barrels, a down wards revision of 26 billion barrels. Mexico’s recoverable resources are third on the loss list, downgraded by 12 billion barrels to 26 billion barrels. Most of this year’s revisions are driven by lower upside potential from shale oil drilling due to complex geology and the need for extensive exploration campaigns and improved fracking technologies.
The remaining recoverable resources of OPEC countries are reduced by 53 billion barrels to 741 billion barrels. Iran and Saudi Arabia have the largest revisions, losing 11 billion barrels each, with Saudi recoverable oil volumes now calculated at 288 billion barrels and Iranian volumes at 101 billion barrels. Iraq follows in third place, seeing its recoverable resources shrink by 8 billion barrels to 110 billion barrels.
In this revision, Saudi Arabia keeps the throne as the producer with the largest volumes of recoverable oil resources (288 billion barrels). The US follows second (214 billion barrels), Russia third (149 billion barrels) and Canada fourth (138 billion barrels).
In Central and South America, Brazil remains first in recoverable resources, sitting on 83 billion barrels (down 2 billion barrels from last year’s update). In Europe, with 19 billion barrels (down by 1 billion barrels in this update), Norway remains ahead of the UK, whose volumes have shrunk by 2 billion barrels to 10 billion. In Africa, resource leader Nigeria lost 6 billion barrels and its recoverable resources are now estimated at 20 billion barrels.
Unlike most countries in our analysis, Australia’s estimated recoverable oil resources are now seen higher by 2 billion barrels at 23 billion barrels.
The time stamp of Rystad Energy’s newest resource assessment is 1 January 2021. In other words, our analysis illustrates where the remaining recoverable resources of each country stood at the beginning of this year.
Culled from Rystad Energy
The Federal Government has offered explanation with regard to recent changes to fuel sulphur content standards for diesel.
The Government said the change was part of a regional harmonisation effort, not a relaxation of regulations for local refineries.
The Chief Executive, Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, told newsmen that the move was only adhering to a 2020 decision by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) which mandated a gradual shift to cleaner fuels across the region.
Ahmed said the new limits comply with the decision by ECOWAS that mandated stricter fuel specifications, with enforcement starting in January 2021 for non-ECOWAS imports and January 2025 for ECOWAS refineries.
“We are merely implementing the ECOWAS decision adopted in 2020. So, a local refinery with a 650 ppm sulphur in its product is permissible and safe under the ECOWAS rule until January next year where a uniform standard would apply to both the locally refined and imported products outside West Africa”, Ahmed said.
He said importers were notified of the progressive reduction in allowable sulphur content, reaching 200 ppm this month from 300 ppm in February, well before the giant Dangote refinery began supplying diesel.
Recall that an S&P Global report, last week, noted a significant shift in the West African fuel market after Nigeria altered its maximum diesel sulphur content from 200 parts per million (ppm) to around 650 ppm, sparking concerns it might be lowering its standards to accommodate domestically produced diesel which exceeds the 200 ppm cap.
High sulphur content in fuels can damage engines and contribute to air pollution. Nevertheless, the ECOWAS rule currently allows locally produced fuel to have a higher sulphur content until January 2025.
At that point, a uniform standard of below 5 ppm will apply to both domestic refining and imports from outside West Africa.
Importers were previously permitted to bring in diesel with a sulphur content between 1,500 ppm and 3,000 ppm.
It would be noted that the shift to cleaner fuels aligns with global environmental efforts and ensures a level playing field for regional refiners.
The Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution (PHED) plc says it has commenced implementation of the April 2024 Supplementary Order to the MYTO in its franchise area while assuring customers of improved service delivery.
The Supplementary order, which took effect on April 3, 2024, emphasizes provisions of the MYTO applicable to customers on the Band A segment taking into consideration other favorable obligations by the service provider to Band A customers.
The Head, Corporate Communications of the company, Olubukola Ilvebare, revealed that under the new tariff regime, customers on Band A Feeders who typically receive a minimum supply of power for 20hours per day, would now be obliged to pay N225/kwh.
“According to the Order, this new tariff is modeled to cushion the effects of recent shifts in key economic indices such as inflation rates, foreign exchange rates, gas prices, as well as enable improved delivery of other responsibilities across the value chain which impact operational efficiencies and ability to reliably supply power to esteemed customers.
“PHED assures Band A customers of full compliance with the objectives of the new tariff order”, he stated.
Ilvebare also said the management team was committed to delivering of optimal and quality services in this cost reflective dispensation.
The PHED further informed its esteemed customers on the other service Bands of B, C D & E, that their tariff remains unchanged, adding that the recently implemented supplementary order was only APPLICABLE to customers on Band A Feeders.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL) has announced the signing of an agreement with African Refinery for a share subscription agreement with Port-Harcourt Refinery.
The agreement would see the co-location of a 100,000bpd refinery within the Port-Harcourt Refinery complex.
This was disclosed in a press statement on the company’s official X handle detailing the nitty-gritty of the deal.
According to the NNPCL, the new refinery, when operational, would produce PMS, AGO, ATK, LPG for both the local and international markets.
It stated, “NNPC Limited’s moves to boost local refining capacity witnessed a boost today with the signing of share subscription agreement between NNPC Limited and African Refinery Port Harcourt Limited for the co-location of a 100,000bpd capacity refinery within the PHRC complex.
“The signing of the agreement is a significant step towards setting in motion the process of building a new refinery which, when fully operational, will supply PMS, AGO, ATK, LPG, and other petroleum products to the local and international markets and provide employment opportunities for Nigerians.
By: Lady Godknows Ogbulu
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