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Economist Group Faults Crude Supply Delay To Dangote … Says Its Risky To Nigeria’s Economy’
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EiU), the research and analysis division of the Economist Group, has warned that further delays in crude oil feedstock to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals could jeopardise Nigeria’s economic recovery, putting more pressure on the Naira, the local currency.
It noted that the Dangote Refinery, which began production in January, has encountered setbacks in petrol production due to a shortage of crude oil feedstock.
The $20 billion facility, it stated, has successfully exported various products, including fuel oil, naphtha, nitrogen fertilisers, gasoil, jet fuel, and diesel, but has been unable to ramp up petrol production due to challenges in sourcing adequate crude oil.
The delays are expected to have significant economic repercussions for Nigeria, and likely to worsen the already strained relationship between public finances and the management of the Naira.
Acknowledging that the government had previously scrapped the official petrol subsidy in June 2023, the report said the practice of unofficially subsidizing petrol continues, with substantial implications for the national budget.
It further noted that this has led to increased currency losses, contributing to a widening budget deficit that has become increasingly difficult to manage and could force the Central Bank of Nigeria to revert to stronger management of the currency.
“As the Federal Government unofficially subsidises petrol (the official subsidy was scrapped in June 2023), currency losses feed into a widening budget deficit that is becoming more challenging to finance.
“This provides extra incentive for the central bank to revert to stronger management of the currency, as we already expect, but the degree of market intervention could become heavier.
“Meanwhile, ongoing fuel imports would reduce the current-account surplus from the 1.9% of GDP that we currently project for 2025, potentially leading to lower foreign reserves and the return to a more rigid and unstable foreign-exchange system”, it said.
The delay in securing a reliable pipeline of affordable crude oil feedstock was attributed to low crude production due to oil theft and underinvestment, and using crude oil to repay outstanding loans.
“The refinery has encountered a range of problems, both practical and political in nature. The most publicly discussed issue is how the refinery can secure a reliable pipeline of crude oil feedstock at affordable prices.
“NNPC, the state oil firm, has not been able to provide enough volume. The government has promised to deliver 450,000 b/d of oil to the refinery through NNPC in a pilot scheme, sold in Naira, but the state oil company is not in a position to make this a reliable arrangement.
“Crude production in Nigeria is stubbornly low, as a result of oil theft and underinvestment. Output was 1.31m b/d in July, against an OPEC+ target of 1.38m b/d.
“NNPC receives a varying minority share of this and, moreover, a sizable quantity (about 90,000 b/d) is being committed as loan collateral”, it stated further.
Accordingly, it said, the situation has been worsened by International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in Nigeria, which demand a premium of $3-$4 per barrel over the prices they receive elsewhere.
It noted that regulators are hesitant to enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO)—which requires IOCs to sell crude to local refineries—out of concern that such enforcement might lead to divestment.
The report emphasised that producing fuel locally would significantly benefit Nigeria’s fiscal position and currency, given that petroleum products account for 15% to 20% of the country’s goods import bill.
The Dangote refinery, hailed as a transformative development, is expected to resolve the paradox of Nigeria being a major crude oil producer yet still dependent on fuel imports.
With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d), the refinery is expected to potentially eliminate the need for fuel imports and shield local fuel prices from exchange-rate fluctuations.
“The Dangote fuel refinery is potentially transformational for Nigeria, which has always been an oil exporter and fuel importer.
“This fact is often regarded as a failure and an embarrassment by politicians, businesses and the media alike, but the new refinery has the ability to change this”, it stated.
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Kenya made it a clean sweep at the Berlin Marathon with Sabastian Sawe winning the men’s race and Rosemary Wanjiru triumphing in the women’s.
Sawe finished in two hours, two minutes and 16 seconds to make it three wins in his first three marathons.
The 30-year-old, who was victorious at this year’s London Marathon, set a sizzling pace as he left the field behind and ran much of the race surrounded only by his pacesetters.
Japan’s Akasaki Akira came second after a powerful latter half of the race, finishing almost four minutes behind Sawe, while Ethiopia’s Chimdessa Debele followed in third.
“I did my best and I am happy for this performance,” said Sawe.
“I am so happy for this year. I felt well but you cannot change the weather. Next year will be better.”
Sawe had Kelvin Kiptum’s 2023 world record of 2:00:35 in his sights when he reached halfway in 1:00:12, but faded towards the end.
In the women’s race, Wanjiru sped away from the lead pack after 25 kilometers before finishing in 2:21:05.
Ethiopia’s Dera Dida followed three seconds behind Wanjiru, with Azmera Gebru, also of Ethiopia, coming third in 2:21:29.
Wanjiru’s time was 12 minutes slower than compatriot Ruth Chepng’etich’s world record of 2:09:56, which she set in Chicago in 2024.
The Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) has officially ended passport production at multiple centres, transitioning to a single, centralised system for the first time in 62 years.
Minister of Interior, Dr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, made the disclosure during an inspection of the Nigeria’s new Centralised Passport Personalisation Centre at the NIS Headquarters in Abuja, last Thursday.
He stated that since the establishment of NIS in 1963, Nigeria had never operated a central passport production centre, until now, marking a major reform milestone.
“The project is 100 per cent ready. Nigeria can now be more productive and efficient in delivering passport services,” Tunji-Ojo said.
He explained that old machines could only produce 250 to 300 passports daily, but the new system had a capacity of 4,500 to 5,000 passports every day.
“With this, NIS can now meet daily demands within just four to five hours of operation,” he added, describing it as a game-changer for passport processing in Nigeria.
“We promised two-week delivery, and we’re now pushing for one week.
“Automation and optimisation are crucial for keeping this promise to Nigerians,” the minister said.
He noted that centralisation, in line with global standards, would improve uniformity and enhance the overall integrity of Nigerian travel documents worldwide.
Tunji-Ojo described the development as a step toward bringing services closer to Nigerians while driving a culture of efficiency and total passport system reform.
According to him, the centralised production system aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda, boosting NIS capacity and changing the narrative for improved service delivery.
The National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) has announced plans to roll out Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) and the Nigerian Data Exchange (NGDX) platforms across key sectors of the economy, starting in early 2026.
Director of E-Government and Digital Economy at NITDA, Dr. Salisu Kaka, made the disclosure in Abuja during a stakeholder review session of the DPI and NGDX drafts at the Digital Public Infrastructure Live Event.
The forum, themed “Advancing Nigeria’s Digital Public Infrastructure through Standards, Data Exchange and e-Government Transformation,” brought together regulators, state governments, and private sector stakeholders to harmonise inputs for building inclusive, secure, and interoperable systems for governance and service delivery.
According to Kaka, Nigeria already has several foundational elements in place, including national identity systems and digital payment platforms.
What remains is the establishment of the data exchange framework, which he said would be finalised by the end of 2025.
“Before the end of this year and by next year we will be fully ready with the foundational element, and we start dropping the use cases across sectors,” Kaka explained.
He stressed that the federal government recognises the autonomy of states urging them to align with national standards.
“If the states can model and reflect what happens at the national level, then we can have a 360-degree view of the whole data exchange across the country and drive all-of-government processes,” he added.
