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Surviving Economic Realities In 2020s

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Heraclitus of Ephesus, a Greek philosopher of the late 6th Century, in his famous apothegm said, “The only constant is Change”. Literally, whether change is desired or not is inconsequential as it occurs independently; devoid of assents or prior notice. And the earlier people prepared their mind for it, the better as it is inevitable. This is thus, a clarion demand for reprogramming the minds to adapt as it occurs. Not even resistance deters it except to be left behind; an unhealthy option.
Typically, the major and fastest agent of change is civilization which everyone profoundly cherishes. Nobody in their right senses will kick against civilization due to the comfort, speed and productivity it offers. However, the bad side of it is, the same pace it opens new opportunities to the sensitive minds, is also how it pushes out the indolent and conservative minds out of jobs and businesses.
For example, the evolution of modern computers; Central Processing Units (CPUs) and laptops sent conservative typists and typewriter-merchants that were insensitive to upgrade out of jobs and businesses. Similarly, online shopping has become the most utilised medium across the world thereby affecting daily sales of shop owners. Arguably, technological advancement is moving fast.
Presently, foodstuffs including fresh tomatoes, potatoes, vegetables and even native cooked foods are ordered online and delivered with ease in Nigeria. Likewise, the usual taxi business which required people to board on the road is being overtaken by connected system which can access, negotiate variety of taxis in the comfort of the living rooms.
Churches are not left out as people in the comfort of their homes now actively participate in church services same way as onsite worshippers. In banking industry, higher volume of transactions are currently done virtual which reduces human activities in the banking halls alongside overhead costs. Of course, by design, banks are profit-oriented and not charity organizations, hence, will always switch over to most cost-effective system.
Conversely, the labour market is adversely affected as technology drops human activities thereby increasing unemployment ratios. Even those already in employment are likely to face more retrenchments as their services can be rendered cheaper and more efficiently through technological revolution.
For emphasis, on September 3, 2019, an energy firm, Oando Plc, sacked about 100 workers. Similarly, on November 21, 2019, First Bank of Nigeria recorded a mass sack of staff numbering over 1000 across the federation. The record goes on. The umbrella body of the workers; National Union of Banks, Insurance and Financial Institutions Employees (NUBIFIE) threatened fire and brimstone to reverse the action.
Though the solidarity was commendable, unfortunately, NUBIFIE forgot the employers’ obligation to discharge employees is to be laid off accordingly. The union overlooked to do a feasibility study vis-à-vis the management’s unflinching action, without any panic against possible collapse of the bank by the volume of the retrenchment. This is a critical oversight.
For instance, Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) can now withdraw and also collect deposits into customers account in few seconds. The implication is that scores of contract staff that mount the tellers may be drastically reduced to virtually zero. Believably, all banks are working in that directions which implies that more retrenchments are looming particularly in the banking sector in the new decade.
Realistically, NUBIFIE and other unions may not do much to counter the trend. This is because they cannot provide the funds to subsidize overhead costs; to secure their members’ jobs. Convincingly, the bank discovered an alternative mode to handle operations without such a crowd of employees. To call a spade, a spade, the sacks were no accidental discharge but necessitated by profit maximization which is its major goal.
Laudably, a leading financial institution, United Bank for Africa (UBA), recently recorded a massive recruitment drive of about 4000 new staff alongside promotion of 5000 existing staff members with inspiring increments. However, the truth must be told. Industrialized economy is rapidly succumbing to digitalized economy.
The top-secret is technological innovation that economically, efficiently handles human tasks. In other words, repositioning is crucial. A stitch in time they say, saves nine. Sensibly, those not considering modern economy are vulnerable to be victims of the contemporary economic dynamics. Another bitter truth is that government alone cannot provide the much needed jobs for the high number of unemployed population.
However, governments must obligatorily provide the enabling environments for businesses to thrive. Economy must be stimulated and made attractive for investors. And essentially, insecurity must be unrelentingly wrestled not merely by empowering security agents but creating jobs for unemployed populations alongside empowerment with skills acquisitions. Government must meet these critical demands.
Interestingly, the most striking feature of the new economic direction is that it can empower distressed persons from zero level to financial independence without capital unlike the phasing-out industrialized economy. Above all, it creates secure incomes alongside conventional vocations. Instructively, most of the capitalists in the developed economies do not survive by commonplace hustling but connected economy.
Thus, whilst it is ideal to have exciting new year resolutions, big dreams and accept nice predictions, efforts must be put in top gear to think outside the box. People should expediently, ardently consider realignment. By the rapidity of technological advancement in the world, it is obvious a lot of employments may be in danger.
The way out is to embrace the modern economy to run with the changes against the challenges. Connected economy, distinctively, thrives by merely building relationships and fostering connections, rather than assets (money) and stuffs as exists in industrialized economy. However, extreme caution is required as scammers have infiltrated digitalized economy knowing it is the new face of the world economy.
Umegboro is a public affairs analyst.

 

Carl Umegboro

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Oil & Energy

Resource Wars Are Here and Oil Is the First Casualty

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In just over a year, the world saw several instances of a choked supply of commodities indispensable for today’s economies and military capabilities.
From China’s restrictions on rare earths and critical minerals supply to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, policymakers and analysts began to realize that the control of oil, critical minerals, rare earths, and magnets is as important as building and maintaining stockpiles of advanced weapons. It also became clear that without these resources, defense and military capabilities could be weakened. The actual arms race goes hand in hand with the new battle for the resources that underpin economic, manufacturing, and advanced military development.
“Great-power competition has returned to basics: who controls the physical resources that modern economies and militaries run on,” Alice Gower, a partner at London-based political-risk advisory firm Azure Strategy, told the Wall Street Journal.
“Energy, critical minerals and industrial capacity are leverage, not just economic assets,” Gower added.
The war in the Middle East and the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz laid bare the reality of choked energy supply. The world’s most vital oil and LNG chokepoint, through which 20% of daily global trade flowed before the Iran war, has been essentially closed for most tanker traffic for more than three weeks.
The massive supply shock, the worst disruption in the oil market in history, showed that the world is dependent on energy resources, and that geography and actual physical supply matter. With so much oil and gas stranded in the Middle East, oil prices spiked to above $100 per barrel, natural gas prices in Europe doubled, and Asian spot LNG prices hit multi-year highs.
The precarious situation in the Middle East is reverberating across Asia, the region most dependent on oil and LNG supply from the Persian Gulf. Asian refiners pay sky-high premiums for non-Middle Eastern crude, many are considering cutting or have already cut processing rates, and countries have started to enact fuel-preserving measures, from four-day work weeks to bans on fuel exports.
In Europe, the gas refilling season will be the toughest yet, as Asia is outbidding Europe for spot LNG supply after Qatar’s LNG is effectively sidelined and full capacity may not return for up to five years following Iranian missile attacks last week.
Even the ‘energy independent’ United States, the world’s top oil producer, is not independent when it comes to global supply shocks of such magnitude.
The national average price of gasoline is approaching $4 per gallon nationwide, more than $1 a gallon compared to a month ago, before the start of the war.
Oil is a global resource, traded on a global market, and prices reflect fundamentals, although they have been driven by hectic trading activity on geopolitics in recent weeks. But the fundamentals show that there is no resource available to plug the gap that has opened in Middle Eastern supply. Producers are slashing output due to a lack of storage capacity, which further delays a rapid recovery in supply when this mess ends.
All this goes to show that whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz has enormous leverage on inflicting global economic pain.
While the world is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the race for rare earths and critical minerals continues, with the U.S. and Western countries scrambling to dent China’s dominance.
Since China restricted exports of rare earth elements early in 2025, Western countries have raced to create mine-to-magnet supply chains to reduce dependence on Chinese supply in the key military and automotive industries.
China holds a 59% share of the mining of rare earths, 91% in refining, and a whopping 94% in magnet manufacturing, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.
The U.S. has responded by taking stakes in minerals mining companies, the launch of a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, known as Project Vault, and is leading efforts to break the Chinese stronghold on the pricing of these minerals critical for the defense and auto industries and national security.
Chinese dominance could be eroded, but it would take years.
Still, rising neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) supply from countries like the U.S. and Australia is set to reduce China’s market share to 69% by 2030 from 90% in 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) said in new research this month.
“We’re seeing a surge in rare-earth investment as modern technologies demand more critical materials,” said Jack Baxter, Global Metals & Mining Analyst at BI and co-author of the report.
“That said, we anticipate a significant shortfall in supply due to trade uncertainties, with lead times as long as 10 years to get new material out of the ground,” Baxter added.
“This will give pricing power to the few producers that currently are able to supply critical materials outside of China, fracturing the globalized market.”
Amid fractured markets and high geopolitical uncertainty, one thing is certain – the next arms race, alongside the actual arms race, will be for control of key resources such as oil and critical minerals.
By Tsvetana Paraskova
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Oil & Energy

Transcorp Energy, Renewvia Partner On Renewable Energy Gap

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Transcorp Energy Limited and Renewvia Solar Nigeria Limited have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly develop renewable energy projects across Nigeria.
The move is aimed at addressing the persistent power deficit that has crumble businesses in the nation.
The agreement also outlines a longer-term plan to expand operations across Africa, positioning both firms to tap into growing demand for clean and reliable electricity.
The partnership would target commercial, industrial and residential consumers, as well as underserved communities, through a mix of off-grid and grid-connected energy solutions.
Beyond electricity provision, the collaboration would explore the aggregation and monetisation of Renewable Energy Credits generated from the projects, adding a commercial layer to the clean energy rollout.
The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Transcorp Energy, Chris Ezeafulukwe, said the initiative aligns with the company’s broader strategy to expand access to sustainable power.
He noted that combining grid and decentralised energy systems would enable the company to deliver reliable electricity directly to end-users across different segments of the economy.
Chief Executive Officer of Renewvia, Trey Jarrard, described Nigeria as a critical market for the company’s African ambitions.
According to him, the partnership provides a platform to scale operations rapidly by leveraging established infrastructure and local expertise, while delivering cost-effective and resilient energy solutions.
Both companies said the agreement lays the foundation for a scalable pan-African renewable energy business, capable of supporting diverse markets and accelerating the continent’s transition to cleaner power sources.
The collaboration comes amid increasing pressure on governments and private sector players to deploy sustainable energy solutions to bridge electricity gaps, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and support economic growth across Africa.
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Oil & Energy

IYC Tasks Niger Delta Governors On  Oil Field Bidding  ….Decries Exclusion of Host Communities

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The Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) Worldwide has raised concerns over the continued exclusion of host communities from the governance of oil resources, urging Niger Delta governors to take decisive steps by bidding for oil blocs and marginal fields.
The council warned that failure to act would allow external interests to continue dominating the region’s oil assets, despite their location within host communities.
Secretary-General of the council, Maobuye Nangi-Obu, started this at the stakeholders’ meeting organised by the Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited , with participants drawn from Rivers, Abia and Imo States, in Port Harcourt, recently.
“It is time for state governments in the Niger Delta, especially Rivers State, to form oil companies that can bid for marginal fields within their territories”, he said.
Nangi-Obu expressed concern over the reported listing of about 25 marginal oil fields for allocation, noting that many were located in host communities but allegedly being assigned to non-indigenes.
In his words “They sit in Abuja and decide what happens in our region, yet we are not part of the oil governance of our own resources”.
He explained that marginal fields, though considered uneconomical by major oil firms, remain viable for indigenous operators, adding that their allocation had continued to fuel grievances in the Niger Delta.
The IYC scribe also warned of the implications of directional drilling, describing it as a growing threat to host communities.
“There could be oil wells in your community, and somebody elsewhere could be drilling that oil without your knowledge,” he cautioned.
On environmental concerns, Nangi-Obu condemned the persistent gas flaring in the region, blaming both international and local operators for failing to invest in gas processing infrastructure.
He, however, commended Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited for its engagement with host communities.
“Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited is doing the right thing by engaging stakeholders. Not all companies are doing what they are doing,” he stated.
Traditional rulers at the meeting, further acknowledged improvements linked to the company’s activities in their areas.
The Eze Ekpeye-Logbo, King Kevin Anugwo, represented by Dr Patricia Ogbonnaya, noted that “aquatic life that disappeared due to pollution is gradually returning,” attributing the development to improved environmental conditions.
Similarly, Chairman of the K-Dere Council of Chiefs, Chief Batom Mitee, said, “There is now peace in our community,” stressing,  increased oil production must translate into tangible benefits for host communities.
By: King Onunwor
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