The recent Abuja-Kaduna train attack has finally brought to a halt speculations regarding Boko-Haram’s expansion into the North-West territories of Nigeria. Although warnings sounded as far back as two-three years ago suggested such an active expansionist agenda, it was not until January 2022 that I saw what I consider to be the first official acknowledgement of the expansionist efforts.
This acknowledgement was contained in Kaduna State Ministry of Internal Security and the Home Affairs’ annual security report which included observations regarding the escalating relationship between Boko-Haram groups and bandits. .
Recall that Boko-Haram ceased to exist as a single entity since 2014/2015 when factionalism befell the central entity. This factionalism yielded three different groups distinguishable by certain ideological and tactical contrarieties. They are the Shekau-led Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad (JASLWJ), the Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) supported Jama’atu Ansaril Muslimina fi Biladis Sudan (Ansaru) and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). And they have been fighting one another for influence and jurisdiction ever since.
Interestingly, establishing an influential presence in North-Central and North-West Nigeria has always constituted a major aspect of these groups’ grand agenda. But for years, it had proven hard for this objective to be achieved by any of the groups even after staging several operations in the subregions, as none of them was able to establish the desired level of hegemonic presence and influence.
Last year, Nigeria’s terror network experienced heightened volatility due to the escalation of the conflagration between the two major terrorist organisations —the Shekau-led Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) and Al-Barnawi-led Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) — operating in the North-east and Lake-chad basin. This resulted in the death of Abubakar Shekau by suicide which sparked serious disarray within the network and rendered the JAS somewhat defenceless.
Consequently, ISWAP issued an ultimatum to all JAS commanders and fighters to either defect to ISWAP and pledge allegiance to Al-Barnawi or vacate all former JAS territories which now fell under their control. Some commanders and fighters complied and defected while many others surrendered to the Nigeria Army with the aim of becoming beneficiaries of the Nigerian government’s amnesty programme (Operation Safe Corridor).
A third group of JAS commanders and fighters who neither defected nor surrendered to the Nigerian army were thought to have migrated to the North-West to forge alliances with bandit groups. By implication, while Ansaru continues to remain the closest to Nortg-West bandits, ISWAP and former JAS fighters might have also re-ignited links with bandit groups. While ISWAP might have taken over control of the vast network of bandit groups that were formerly affiliated to Shekau-led JAS due to the carpet-crossing of JAS commanders (some of whom are the keepers of the link between JAS and the bandit gangs in the North-West just as Adamu Bitri) to the ISWAP side, JAS fighters that refused to surrender to both ISWAP and the Nigerian Army might however have also migrated to NW to forge alliances with bandits and escape ISWAP’s wrath.
Now, the changing dynamics, improved weaponry and renewed offensive tactics seen in recent attacks thought to be staged by bandits are testimonials to an improved alliance between bandits and members of Boko Haram groups. These attacks which carry Boko Haram signatures all over from attacks on public infrastructure(as in the case of the train attacks) to attacks on military formations(e.g NDA and the Birnin Gwari Army Forward Operational Base) and the efficient use of IEDs for offensives have increased in frequency in North West states.
The recent video tape that was released in the aftermath of the release of Bank of Agriculture’s MD also signals this unholy alliance. At this pace, North-West Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a more deadlier terror zone than the North-East ever was. This is because we are dealing with two groups with complementary terror/criminal expertise synergy which holds the potential for the establishment of the most sophisticated terror network Nigeria has ever seen.
The bandits indubitably boast of an unmatched knowledge of the local terrain and geography of the North-West’s forests and other ungoverned spaces while Boko Haram groups, be they Ansaru or ISWAP, boast of a very deadly extremist-ideological core with a sophisticated array of terror-based expertise and affiliation to global terror networks through Islamic State(IS) African subsidiaries(for ISWAP) and Al-Qaeeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) (for Ansaru) that allows them access to global terror resources and funding.
The bandits also have the numbers sourced from a rich population of child-soldiers. Their numerical preponderance, non-ideological-cum-uneducated nature and relatively young base make them extremely vulnerable to indoctrination and a suitable source for terror-manpower.
Sadly, the use of child-soldiers for terror activities is attributed to both ISWAP and Ansaru, but ISWAP has gone further to institutionalise child recruitment and indoctrination using international terror recruitment standards.
Hence, ISWAP might leverage this rich child-soldier manpower source opportunity more effectively. As I write this piece, I must confess to experiencing an overwhelming shockwave of fear since I discovered ISWAP’s new recruitment and indoctrination strategy through open source terror watch networks. And here is why: the largest bandit-manpower source is predominantly the forsaken, uncivilised and uneducated population of forest-based Fulani. Several testimonies from victims of kidnapping further affirms that the bandits are mostly young boys aged 14-18.
They have been adjudged to be tremendous in terms of population and now Boko Haram groups(ISWAP, ANSARU, fmr JAS) have infiltrated the vast bandit network due to the government’s avoidable mismanagement of the entire situation which metamorphosed from farmer-herder crisis. Unfortunately, the continued mismanagement of this crisis now holds the potential of further transfiguring into an implosive generation-long extremist insurgency.
ISWAP has instituted a new recruitment and indoctrination initiative. This initiative aimed at recruiting an army they term “The Empowerment Generation” focuses on training and indoctrinating children aged 8-16 as seen in a propaganda video released by the group. The implementation of this training and indoctrination exercise is done through the instrumentality of a well structured educational institution named “Khilafah Cadet School”. Cadets, otherwise called “Cubs of the Caliphate”, are drilled in extremist Islamic education; tactical military, arms and infantry training; and Jihad and enemy execution techniques. This school boasts of a well-structured curriculum consistent with global terror standards and a strict entry requirement as students have to pass an entrance exams before getting admitted. The school is well-funded and resourced. The most scary aspect of the video is the scene that shows the cadets practicing special force warfare tactics. In the scene, the cadets are shown entering a building in special force style to extract enemies. The enemies used for this drill were Nigerian soldiers captured by ISWAP. After the extraction, the three soldiers were made to kneel and they were all shot in the head by three different child-soldiers barely aged 15. The precision, the tact and the efficiency in execution are consistent with that which is usually seen in war movies.
The “Cubs of the Caliphate” are a product of a long-term strategy envisioned by ISWAP to continue the ideologically-driven war for another generation, serving as a formidable and inexhaustible manpower source for the terrorist army.

By: Abdulhaleem Ringim
Ringim wrote from Port Harcourt.