Politics
2015 Presidency: The Odds
As the February 14
Presidential election draws nearer by the day, and parties put finishing touches to their strategies to either retain or gain power, permutations as to which party waxes more or gains more ground are rife. As events unfold, there is little doubt that the race will be between the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the leading opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC).
Following the emergence of incumbent president, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and former Head-of-State, General Mohammadu Buhar (GMB), as the candidates of the PDP and APC respectively, the battle for Nigeria’s presidency has begun in earnest.
As expected, both presidential candidates have as much chances of emerging victorious as their followers chose to portray or make keen observers believe. One certainty, however, is that at the end of the day, only one aspirant will emerge. So, what are the odds against, or in favour of the two presidential gladiators.?
For GEJ, there is no doubt that the catch phrase, “A breath of fresh air” that was the crux of his pre-2011 campaign that saw him coast to victory in the 2011 election seem to have fizzled out. So have all the goodwills and promises of a better Nigeria.
Pundits have expressed the belief that the disillusionment trailing the GEJ presidency garnered so much momentum because it basically originated from what is largely seen as within the inner chambers of the PDP, the very heart of the party caucus.
Key areas in which GEJ has been identified to have given a lackluster attention and hence deemed to have failed could be summerised into corruption and insecurity, and a major advocate in this wise is former president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
Being a key figure in PDP, whatever the former president says cannot be dismissed as mere frivolity. Comparatively, there is the belief that no matter what can be said about former President Obasanjo, he at least made some efforts against corrupt officials when he was in charge, even if such efforts were often viewed as sectional and tokenistic.
In his recent autobiography titled “My Watch”, Obasanjo said of corruption in GEJ’s first tenure; “under Jonathan we seem to have gone from frying pan to fire. If in the past corruption was in the corridors of power, it would seem now to be in the sitting room, dinning room and bedroom of power”.
The former president further drove his point when he alleged that incremenating corruption-related documents against a former governor was ordered to be removed from a file because the culprit was close to GEJ.
As a result of his perceived inability to address issues of corruption, therefore, many Nigerians, as amplified by the opposition, do not see GEJ as ready to fight corruption, which no doubt, has over the years proven to be the bane of Nigeria’s woes, both within and outside the shores of Nigeria.
The same reason is given for GEJ’s inability to secure lives and properties in his domain, as exemplified by the increasing and more deadly activities of the terrorist sect, Boko Haram, which had sent thousands to their early grave, and has held over 200 Chibok secondary school girls hostage since April 15, 2014.
In a summarizing manner, the founder of Adoration Ministry, Enugu Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, during his end-of-year mass on the eve of 2015, said GEJ had surrounded himself with very corrupt officials. As a result, the President, he said, has turned a blind eye to their corrupt activities while millions of Nigerians wallow in abject poverty and endless insecurity.
According to Mbaka, “Jonathan has ruled for six years. We need a change. NEPA (electricity) is not working because of corruption. The privatization of public companies has not yielded any fruit because of corruption.
“Jonathan surrounded himself with very corrupt officers who advise him. Nigerians are sick and tired of wasting innocent lives without government doing enough to stop the destruction.
“Up till now, nobody knows the whereabouts of the innocent Chibok girls kidnapped by Boko Haram and we say we have a government that cannot guarantee the welfare, safety and security of the citizens.
“Nigerians are calling for change. We need change. We don’t want to move from bad luck to bad luck. Nigerians want to move from bad luck to good luck”, he said.
While acknowledging the stand by the opposition in a piece titled “Can Jonathan survive this blitzkriegs?” in This Day, Simon Kolawole identified four categories of GEJ’s critics: Opposition figures and other political opponents; those who lost out in the political game; those northerners who are still bitter that Jonathan “hijacked” power after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010; and those who have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan as they are sincerely critical of certain aspects of his stewardship.
Kolawole had no qualms with opposition figures and other political opponents because they must do their bidding.
“There is no way APC would come out and praise Jonathan; that is political suicide. They want power. They want his job. Theirs is to say Jonathan or PDP has not done well and that if Nigerians give them a chance, they would do much better.
“This is a universal characteristic of opposition politics. You can argue that they do not always work with facts, but what is politicking? PDP would do the same if APC was in power”, he said.
For those who lost out in the political game, the writer observed that many politicians, who supported GEJ in 2010 and 2011, feel abandoned, “they feel like a deflated orange: squeezed, sucked and dumped. They feel Jonathan treated them to a one-night stand, whereas they wanted an affair.
“Some wanted appointments; others simply desired respect and recognition. But they are bitter that Jonathan jilted them after getting what he wanted. In no time, they became his sworn enemies”, he said.
The northerners who are embittered that GEJ hijacked their right after the death of President Yar’Adua feel so because they say when they conceded power to the South in 1999, they did it with the understanding that Obasanjo would do only one term. But he did the maximum two terms.
Consequently, PDP, as the ruling party, agreed to north/south power rotation every eight years. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died prematurely.
“Jonathan took over and refused to let so. To some northerners, there is nothing Jonathan can do to make them happy. Even if he turns Nigeria to Dubai, their message is clear; Thank you and just get out of here”, he said.
The last category, which have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan are merely genuinely bothered at his handling of critical issues such as corruption and Boko Haram.
“In truth, Jonathan lost a lot of sympathizers with the Chibok School girls’ saga, which turned into the ‘Na only you waka come’ tragicomedy in the corridors of power”, Kolawole concluded.
As a word of advise, and in seeming appreciation of the political scenario, Kolawole noted: “It is not in the best interest of President Jonathan to lump all his critics together. As a leader, he has to sit down, analyse his critics and their criticisms, and work out his actions and reactions appropriately.
“He sure has millions of critics, like any other leader. People criticize with different motives. People have different agenda even when they are saying the same thing. Unfortunately, you will miss the massage when you lump everyone together and respond to every critic and criticism with cynicism and antagonism”.
As is usual with incumbency and opposition in politics, the weakness of the ruling government is what opposition latches upon to score its points, and the APC, seem to be doing a good job of it.
Against an allegedly “weak” GEJ, the APC, which is the leading opposition party, has fielded a perceived “strong” candidate in GMB, based on his track record. One key factor that constitutes a plus to GMB is his brief tenure as Military Head of State from the 1st of January 2004 to August 2005.
Alongside his second in command, late Major-General Tunde Idiagbon, GMB launched the popular War Against Indiscipline (WAI), through which they attempted to set a new road-map for the country’s politics.
They introduced strict economic and political policies that have been widely described as “Buharism”. It saw him refuse to adopt the IMF conditionality to devalue the naira. While his critics blamed him then for the resultant job losses, closure of some businesses, and decline in living standards, his admirers commended him for adopting unique economic measures that enabled his government to reduce inflation, curb import of needless goods and curtail crude oil theft.
Given his history as a leader with a strong character, GMB is also described as incorruptible and hence seem as the messiah that Nigeria needs to combat the ailing corruption-infested Nigerian economy.
Ironically, GMB’s critics also consider his strong personality as a minus, saying that he would not be a listening president like GEJ. But his followers have expressed strong feelings that the former Army General’s popularity is increasing by the day, and before February 14 where the pendulum for the presidency will swing to will be too glaring not to see in favour of the APC candidate.
Moreso, as is popularly said,There is little doubt that Nigerians want to change, one that would loosen the stranglehold of corruption in the nation’s polity. What is, however, in contention is who represents that change so yearned for. Is it a repented GEJ, or a brand new GMB?
Soibi Max-Alalibo
Prof. Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman
Operating under the umbrella of the Coalition of Civil Society Network, the group described the ruling delivered by Justice Obiora Egwuatu as unfair and contrary to the spirit of democracy, urging the judiciary to consider the will of the people in its final determination of the matter.
Justice Obiora Egwuatu of the Federal High Court, Abuja, had on Thursday, October 30, sacked Gummi for defecting from the PDP, which sponsored his election, to the APC.
In his ruling, Justice Egwuatu held that it was morally wrong for a politician to transfer votes from one political party to another, stating that “political prostitution must not be rewarded.”
He declared that voters elect candidates based on the manifestos and ideals of their political parties. Therefore, it was both legally and morally unacceptable for an elected official to abandon that platform without relinquishing the mandate.
The court also restrained the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, from recognising Hon. Gummi as a member of the House, and ordered him to refund all salaries and allowances received from October 30, 2024, to the date of judgment.
Justice Egwuatu further directed the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct a fresh election within 30 days to fill the vacant seat.
The suit, marked FHC/ABJ/CS/1803/2024, was filed by the PDP and its Zamfara State chairman, Jamilu Jibomagayaki, who argued that Hon. Gummi’s defection violated Section 68(1)(g) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), as there was no division within the PDP to justify his action.
But convener of the coalition, Lukman Muhammad, who addressed journalists at a press conference in Abuja on Saturday, said Hon. Gummi’s defection was a direct result of the unresolved internal crisis within the PDP, which, according to him, crippled the lawmaker’s ability to effectively represent his constituents.
He said: “We believe the court’s decision was unjust and failed to consider the circumstances surrounding Hon. Gummi’s defection. Gummi’s decision to join the APC was necessitated by the unresolved internal crisis within the PDP, which hindered his ability to effectively represent his constituents.
“We affirm that Hon. Gummi’s right to choose his political affiliation is protected by the Constitution and should be respected. We stand for democracy and the rule of law, while also urging the judiciary to consider the will of the people and the greater good”.
He urged Justice Egwuatu to review the judgment, stressing that the ruling could set a dangerous precedent that undermines the principle of fair representation and the rights of elected officials.
The coalition further noted that the judgment has broader implications for Nigeria’s democratic process, as it raises questions about the extent to which lawmakers can exercise their constitutional freedom of association without fear of losing their mandate.
The parties stated that the APC was on the verge of collapse following the recent wave of defections from opposition parties into its ranks.
In separate interviews with The Tide source, spokespersons for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) —Debo Ologunagba, Oladipo Johnson, and Mark Adebayo – respectively, said an implosion was imminent in the APC.
But the APC Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, stated that recent defections to the party were voluntary and inspired by the ruling party’s achievements, not through coercion. He added that the APC was well-structured, capable of managing its internal affairs effectively, and therefore would not experience any internal crisis.
In recent months, the ruling APC has continued to receive several high-profile politicians from opposition parties, particularly the PDP. Among those who have joined the APC are Akwa Ibom State Governor, Umo Eno, Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, and the PDP’s 2023 vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa.
Most recently, members of the Enugu State Executive Council defected to the APC, a move followed by Governor Peter Mbah’s official declaration for the ruling party on October 14 in Enugu.
On October 15, Bayelsa State Governor, Douye Diri, announced his resignation from the PDP. Although he has yet to join another party, speculation is rife that he is on his way to the APC.
Similarly, Taraba State Governor, Agbu Kefas, confirmed last Wednesday that he would be joining the APC.
Numerous other politicians, including several lawmakers, have also abandoned their parties to align with the ruling APC.
In his reaction, Hon. Ologunagba predicted an imminent crisis within the APC, expressing confidence that those who defected would eventually return to the PDP.
He stated, “This is the major political party (PDP), and it is the only democratic party in the country. It has structures cutting across all the local governments, all the wards, and of course all the states. In every home, there are members of the PDP, and that is why the APC are jittery, and that is why they are coercing our members, using state resources and state agencies to force members of opposition parties to join the ruling party.
“But in all this, we are sure and confident that very soon, the APC will implode because it is a multipurpose political vehicle that is not going to last. It is going to implode.
“Many Nigerians will see through it and know that the party is not a political party that protects the interests of the citizens. So, they are going to leave the party and move to the major political party, which is the PDP. We are optimistic that before 2027, many Nigerians will join us because this is the truly democratic party and the only party that is out there to protect their interests.”
On his part, Mr Johnson of the NNPP lamented that the wave of defections posed a serious threat to the country’s democracy.
Mr Johnson said, “This is bad for democracy. For our type of democracy, it is important to have a proper and effective opposition. Already, we’ve seen a blurring of lines between the legislature and the executive; some would even say the judiciary. I hope not. I think many people are observing the trend and are unhappy. However, we need to be a bit more patient and see what happens soon.
“When the PDP was in power for 16 years, it was the party many people rushed into. Over time, it imploded, and many of those who joined it turned against it. So, I see that happening to the ruling APC. Definitely. This is because of the nature of Nigerian politicians; many are driven by personal interests. I always say that Nigeria can never truly be a one-party state. Even if only one party exists, it will become factionalised, with different interests and power blocs. Those pushing the country toward a one-party system may not have studied Nigeria’s political history carefully.”
In his remarks, CUPP’s Adebayo stated that the pattern of defections among politicians, particularly governors and lawmakers, was a deliberate strategy by the ruling party to transform the country into a one-party state.
Mr Adebayo said, “It is not accidental; it is a deliberate and strategic effort to entrench a one-party dictatorship. Whether these defections are forced or coerced, one thing is clear: it is an intentional action driven by the ruling party, particularly the President.
“This development is unhealthy for our democracy. It is shameful and stands against everything democratic principles represent. It is inimical to the growth and development of Nigeria as a democratic nation and poses a grave threat to our political stability.
“The implosion of the APC will come before or once it loses power. Most Nigerian politicians lack ideological grounding or principles; their loyalty lies only with the party in power. Political affiliation is tied to ideology and conviction, not convenience. However, the ideology of most politicians is simply the ruling party. If tomorrow the ADC, Labour Party, or SDP wins the presidency, many of these same politicians will abandon the APC overnight. They have no shame, no conviction, and no conscience. Their only motivation is proximity to power.”
In response, Mr Ibrahim of the APC maintained the APC would not face any internal crisis, asserting that it has the capacity to effectively manage its affairs, unlike the opposition.
He stated, “The fact that the opposition are not organised and they cannot organise primaries, neither can they manage their parties, does not mean we are on the same boat with them. Our party, the APC, has been conducting primaries successfully and rancor-free.
“So, the fact that they don’t know how to manage their party does not mean that is the way we run our own party. The APC does not coerce anyone to join. Those joining are doing so willingly because of President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope achievements. Our party is fully prepared. It’s not going to implode; it’s not going to have any issues similar to the issues they have been having.”
Senator Ndume, in a statement on Saturday in Abuja, accused both the executive and legislative arms of complacency, saying their failure to proactively engage the United States government on the alleged persecution of Christians in Nigeria led to the development.
The senator recalled that he had earlier sponsored a motion in the Senate on “Christian genocide” in the country. The motion, he said, led to resolutions mandating the Nigerian government to engage the U.S. with verified facts and figures.
President Trump, last Friday, announced the designation of Nigeria as a ‘Country of Particular Concern’ over alleged persecution of Christians.
President Trump made the announcement via a post on his Truth Social platform, which was also shared on the official White House X handle.
“Thousands of Christians are being killed. Radical Islamists are responsible for this mass slaughter,” President Trump wrote.
But the Nigerian government swiftly rejected the claims, insisting that President Trump’s assessment did not reflect the true situation in the country.
However, Senator Ndume accused the President Tinubu’s administration and the Senate of treating the allegation raised by US lawmaker, Riley Moore, with complacency, prior to President Trump’s declaration, and urged the federal government to take urgent steps to engage the US government with facts and figures on the activities of terrorists organisations which, he noted, were blind to faith.
“I have alerted the government, I even moved a motion. Nigeria is a sovereign state, it isn’t about what the United States can do to us, but about the misconception and the ripple effects of classifying us as a country of concern.
“We should engage the American government by presenting facts and figures. By engaging the US government, we should demand that they hear the other side of the story from the Nigerian government and the Muslim community. Muslims have been killed too. The genocide isn’t against Christians but Nigerians generally,” he said.
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