On the 4th of October, 2009, the period set for the amnesty process will come to a close. A review of the process so far will reveal some modest success but there are a lot of challenges. First and foremost, It is clear that the amnesty process has been politicised. As Jide Ojo has argued.

Perhaps, the greatest threat to the amnesty deal is the frosty relationship and muscle flexing between two Timis. The administration of Timipre Sylva, Governor of Bayelsa State has accused the Honourary Special Adviser to the President on Niger Delta Matters, Mr. Ndutimi Alaibe of undermining his authority. The Secretary to the Bayelsa State Government had in a reaction to the disarmament that took place at Azuzuma, Bayelsa State accused Alaibe of introducing politics into the amnesty exercise. The SSG also said the protest in Yenagoa is politically motivated to erode the gains recorded by his governor in the amnesty programme. It is an open secret that Timi Alaibe has his eyes fixed on the governorship of Bayelsa State and would want to make capital political gain of his present position. However, the issue at hand needs to be dispassionately tackled so that the amnesty deal does not get scuttled. There is need for the two Timis to sheath their swords and work together in the larger interest of Nigeria and their Niger Delta region.

It would be recalled that on September 6, 2009, thirty-year-old South Wing Commander of the MEND, Mr. Kile Selky Torughedi, a.k.a ‘Young Shall Grow’ submitted a large cache of weapons to Timi Alaibe. They included assorted guns and rifles, grenade launcher chargers, grenades, dynamites, bombs and gun boats. He claimed he had 350 fighters and that he speaks French and has soldiers from Liberia and Gabon. In a footage of his village shown on one of the Africa Independent Television (AIT) on September 17, I saw a Nursery school founded and funded by Kile as well as old women he engages on environmental sanitation on N10,000 monthly salaries each. Talk of failure of governance!

Secondly, there has not been professional execution of the process. The laid down process of disarmament and demobilisation was not followed in all cases leading to demonstration by militants in Yenogoa, Bayelsa State on 4th, 7th and 25th September, 2009. The militants complained of being accommodated in dilapidated buildings in rehabilitation centres and non-payment of their allowances.

Thirdly, the root causes of the crisis in the Niger Delta have not been tackled. Peace requires justice. For the amnesty process to succeed, the injustice done to the Niger Delta people over the years must be redressed. Peace. without justice is peace of the graveyard and is not sustainable.

Furthermore, the level of participation of international and local observers, communities and stakeholders in the process is low. Peace process requires robust participation of stakeholders to increase confidence. In particular, the participation of women in peace building is key because women’s participation not only put new items on the agenda but also because women are perceived to be more empathetic which enhances their reconciliatory and political work as negotiators and possibility of fostering confidence and trust.

As has been alluded to above, disarmament and demobilisation without an effective reintegration programme will only produce “temporary peace” of the graveyard. A successful amnesty process or DDR should create the basis to right the wrongs of the past and help to create a just and equitable society. By the time that the amnesty period expired on 4th October, 2009, it was unlikely that majority of the militants had handed in their arms and ammunitions.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) had requested for extension of the deadline. At the expiration of the moratorium period, the Federal Government is expected to resist the temptation of launching a new military action against militants who may not have surrendered. That will only escalate the crisis and create a new wave of militancy. As General Luke Aprezi, a former Commander in ECOMOG and Force Commander for the African Union Force (now UN Force) has counselled,I can tell you point blank that the war is not winnable by the Nigerian Army. Military can never solve the problem in the Niger Delta. Because Sri Lanka fought the Tamil Tigers for 26 years and now they seem to have defeated the Tamil Tigers, but then, you win the war, have you won the peace? It is what will come out of winning the peace that will determine whether there would be further uprising or not.

I can categorically tell you that Nigerian army cannot win the war in Niger Delta. From my experience all over the world, at best military will carry out a holding action till a political solution is found.

Secondly, every effort must be made to avoid the politicisation of the re-integration phase of the amnesty process which will determine whether or not there will be reversion to violence.

Furthermore, the capacity of the relevant officials must be built to proper handle the reintegration process. The errors that led to the demonstration of militants in Yenogoa, Bayelsa State must be avoided.

Another important point is that states and local government areas in the Niger Delta must change their ways in terms of transparency and accountability to ensure that the vast amount of resources that have been flowing into the Niger Delta since 1999 can be translated into improvement in the lives of citizens. From 1999 to 2007, Delta State received the sum N463 billion from federal allocation. This amount is more than allocation to five states (Anambra, Gombe, Ekiti, Nassarawa and Plateau) put together. This is why Mr. Konyinsola Ajayi pointed out that “it is a shame that Delta State is not a mini-Dubai today, given the enormous resources that have been allocated to the state.” Until the people of the Niger Delta see politics as service to the people and not an avenue to “come and chop” either alone or in conjunction with others, there will be no meaningful progress in the region.

Igbuzor is a guest of the editor.

Otive Igbuzor