Oil & Energy
Supermajors Bet Big on Long-Term Oil Demand
The world’s largest international oil firms are ramping up production even as crude prices have weakened this year and global supply growth continues to outpace the demand increase, setting the stage for a glut in the coming months.
The European majors are back to investing in exploration and new oil and gas field developments after years of trying – and mostly failing – to generate profits and good returns from low-carbon energy projects, including renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and biofuels.
The U.S. supermajors, ExxonMobil and Chevron, are pumping record oil volumes in the top shale region, the Permian, while betting on international project expansions in Guyana and Kazakhstan, for example. The U.S. giants both reported in the second quarter record-high production in the Permian and worldwide, following Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron’s buying of Hess.
France’s TotalEnergies expects higher oil and gas production to have boosted earnings for the third quarter, despite a $10 per barrel decline in oil prices since last year.
Production at the other European supermajors, Shell and BP, is also rising as the European giants shifted focus back to their core oil and gas business. The pivot took place after the energy crisis made energy security and affordability more important than sustainability, while high interest rates and supply chain issues further reduced already meager returns from clean energy projects and made many new energy ventures uncompetitive.
The supermajors are confident they can withstand the current weaker prices and the surplus on the market, to which they have contributed, alongside the national oil companies of the OPEC+ producers, which have been reversing the production cuts this year.
Big Oil is looking beyond the short-term fundamentals and glut noise, having decided to invest more in oil and gas to meet solid demand until at least the mid-2030s.
Unlike the International Energy Agency (IEA), which earlier this year doubled down on its forecast of peak oil demand by the end of this decade, Big Oil companies don’t see any peak by 2030.
BP, which said last year that global oil demand would peak as early as this year, ditched this view in its new annual Energy Outlook last month, in which it now expects oil demand to rise through 2030 amid weaker-than-expected efficiency gains.
Most majors have put the peak at some point in the 2030s, but none expect a rapid decline afterwards, and all say that oil and gas will remain essential for global economic growth and development in 2050.
“Oil and natural gas are essential. There’s no other viable way to meet the world’s energy needs,” ExxonMobil said in its 2025 Global Outlook.
“Our Global Outlook projects that oil and natural gas will make up more than half of the world’s energy supply in 2050. We project that oil demand will stabilize after 2030, remaining above 100 million barrels per day through 2050,” the U.S. supermajor reckons.
“All major credible scenarios include oil and natural gas as a dominant energy source in 2050.”
All three scenarios analyzed in Shell’s 2025 Energy Security Scenarios found that upstream investment of around $600 billion a year “will be required for decades to come as the rate of depletion of oil and gas fields is two to three times the potential future annual declines in demand.”
Exxon and now the European majors are playing the long game—invest in new oil and gas supply, at the expense of renewables, to offset with new production the accelerating natural decline of producing oil and gas fields.
Even the IEA admitted last month that the world needs to develop new oil and gas resources just to keep output flat amid faster declining rates at existing fields, in a major shift in its narrative from 2021 that ‘no new investment’ is needed in a net-zero by 2050 scenario.
Exploration is also back at the top of the agenda for Big Oil, as the companies appear confident their product will be in demand for decades to come.
The expected massive overhang later this year and early next year is not putting off the supermajors’ plans to increase production. They are slashing costs via cutting thousands of workforce numbers to protect shareholder payouts at $60 per barrel oil. Companies have pledged billions of U.S. dollars in cost savings and slimmer corporate structures. That’s to eliminate inefficiencies and excessive costs while keeping payouts to shareholders at much lower prices compared to the 2022 highs.
This year, higher oil and gas production is partly offsetting the weaker prices.
Increased output also positions the world’s biggest companies for rising profits when the glut clears within a year or so, analysts say.
“All the supply coming to the market is shrinking OPEC’s spare capacity — so there’s a light at end of the tunnel,” Barclays analyst Betty Jiang told Bloomberg this week.
“Whether that’s second half of 2026 or 2027, the balance is going to tighten. It’s just a matter of when.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova
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Oil & Energy
Global Energy Crisis Is Reviving Green Hydrogen
The global energy crisis has reshaped global energy priorities seemingly overnight. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to virtually all commercial traffic for well over a month now, severely restricting global flows of oil and gas. As a result, global energy prices have skyrocketed, and supplies have tightened, pushing many countries to explore alternative energy pathways in a big hurry. This has led to an unfortunate resurgence of coal-fired power, especially in Asia – but it is also set to supercharge the clean energy industry on a global scale. And one of the unlikely benefactors of this groundswell of new investment may be the green hydrogen industry.
China, the world’s top hydrogen producer, is planning to ramp up production of hydrogen, and especially green hydrogen, more quickly than previously planned in order to shore up its energy security as import-dependent Asian markets are rocked by skyrocketing oil and gas prices. China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has referred to hydrogen as a “strategic lever” for national energy autonomy and resilience, and has pledged to accelerate the development of the domestic sector accordingly.
China’s 15th five-year plan, released last month, flagged hydrogen as a “future industry.” But, apparently, the future is now. According to a recent report from the South China Morning Post, the rhetoric around hydrogen coming out of China signals a shift away from research and toward rapid practical development of the sector.
Last year, the NEA earmarked 41 projects in nine regions across the country to lead hydrogen pilot projects all along the value chain “from production and transport to storage and application.” Now, leadership is pushing to bring those projects out of demo phases and into industrial applications as quickly as possible.
European leaders, too, are pivoting to embrace green hydrogen production with renewed enthusiasm. Earlier this month, ministers from Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain petitioned the European Union to loosen production regulations to encourage investment into the sector. And Italy successfully approved a €6 billion state aid plan to support renewable hydrogen.
Even the United States is getting on board. This week, the Trump administration instructed the Department of Energy to save $5 billion worth of hydrogen hubs that were slated for closure. The hydrogen projects – though not green hydrogen ventures – were funded under the Biden administration in order to promote cleaner-burning fuel sources.
Hydrogen could potentially be a critical pathway for decarbonization, as it combusts at high heat like fossil fuels. But, unlike fossil fuels, when it burns, it leaves behind nothing but water vapor. This could make it indispensable for the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors like steelmaking and shipping. However, the vast majority of commercial hydrogen is made with fossil fuels. Green hydrogen, by comparison, is made using renewable energies.
But while hydrogen, and especially green hydrogen, could be a key part of the global clean energy transition, research and development in the sector had been cooling for years, as commercial and cost-effective green hydrogen production methods largely failed to materialize. “Even if production costs decrease in line with predictions, storage and distribution costs will prevent hydrogen from being cost-competitive in many sectors,” Roxana Shafiee, a postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard University Center for the Environment, told The Harvard Gazette in 2024. Shafiee led a study that found cause to believe “that the opportunities for hydrogen may be narrower than previously thought.”
But the economics of energy are changing as we speak, and the global hydrogen market is likely about to see a windfall as the world rushes to replace geopolitically risky fossil fuels, which have become prohibitively expensive overnight. Clearly, global leaders are already reembracing the fledgling sector as part of an all-of-the-above approach to energy security and independence. While hydrogen may not be a silver bullet solution, it could be a critical part of a more diverse and therefore more resilient global energy landscape going forward.
By Haley Zaremba
Oil & Energy
PETAN Tasks Indigenous Oil Firms On Investments Attraction … Global Engagement Sustenance
The Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN) has urged indigenous oil and gas companies to deepen global engagement and attract investment.
The Association urged intending participants to leverage the forthcoming 2026 Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in the U.S. to expand their access to new technologies and partnerships.
PETAN said its participation at the global event would be driven by a deliberate strategy to position Nigerian firms as competitive players within the international energy value chain.
In a statement issued by the Association’s Publicity Secretary, Dr Joan Faluyi, In Lagos, at the weekend, PETAN would anchor its activities at the Nigerian Pavilion, with the theme: “Africa’s Energy Transformation: Scaling Investment, Technology, and Local Capacity for Sustainable Growth”.
Faluyi noted that the conference, scheduled for May 4 to May 7 in Houston, Texas, remained a leading platform for offshore energy dialogue, partnerships and innovation.
According to her, PETAN’s participation goes beyond routine attendance and reflects a focused effort to strengthen Nigeria’s visibility and influence in global energy discussions.
“At OTC 2026, PETAN is returning with stronger alignment and a clearer objective, to ensure Nigerian companies are not just present, but actively engaged and recognised as credible global partners,” she said.
Faluyi explained that the association had consistently showcased the capabilities of indigenous oil and gas service providers at previous editions of the conference, reinforcing their capacity to compete internationally.
She added that the Nigerian Pavilion would serve as a strategic hub for investment discussions, technical exhibitions and direct engagement with global stakeholders.
The association is also scheduled to participate in key engagements, including the African Energy Forum, the NCDMB–OEM Investment Forum and the PETAN Golf Tournament slated for May 7 at Quail Valley Golf Course, Texas.
Faluyi described OTC as a critical gateway for Nigerian companies seeking international opportunities, noting that visibility and engagement at the event often translate into commercial partnerships.
“In an increasingly competitive energy landscape, securing a seat at the global table is essential. Through sustained participation, PETAN continues to assert Nigeria’s place in that conversation,” she said.
Also speaking, PETAN Chairman, Mr Wole Ogunsanya, said the Association’s focus was to ensure that indigenous capacity is fully integrated into global energy decision-making processes.
“We have seen firsthand how global energy decisions are shaped at OTC. This year, we are returning to ensure indigenous Nigerian capacity is not just present but recognised, engaged and heard.
“We are taking our businesses to the table where real partnerships are formed,” he said.
Faluyi added that under Ogunsanya’s leadership, PETAN was prioritising strategic positioning to ensure Nigerian companies are not only visible but considered credible partners in major international energy projects.
Oil & Energy
Solar Panels Imports Ban: Experts Recommend Phase -out Approach
Stakeholders in Nigeria’s energy sector have warned that an abrupt restriction on solar panels imports would undermine electricity access.
The experts called for a gradual phase-out of imports over several years rather than an outright ban.
Recall that the federal government had announced plans to halt solar panel imports after investing more than N200 billion to encourage domestic production.
Speaking at the Solar Power Media Training, in Abuja, last week, the Campaign Director, Secure Energy Project (SEP), Joseph Ibrahim, said stakeholders support the goal of building local manufacturing capacity but cautioned against sudden policy shifts.
“Let me be clear, we wholeheartedly support local manufacturing of solar panels”.
“We want to see factories in our states, jobs for our youth, and a supply chain that begins and ends on our soil”, he stated.
Ibrahim insisted that the most effective path forward is a carefully managed roadmap implemented over three to five years to give investors and workers time to adjust.
“If we rush this, we risk making solar power too expensive for the millions who currently rely on it for survival.
“By taking a phased approach, we allow time for investors to build their plants, for our workers to learn specialised skills, and for our economy to adjust without losing power”, he said.
The SEP director said policy stability, access to financing, and strict quality standards are essential to building a sustainable local solar manufacturing industry.
“To make local manufacturing a reality, we don’t just need new laws; we need an enabling environment. This means stability — policies that don’t change with the wind,” he said.
Also speaking, Tosin Asonibare, said renewable energy has become a critical solution to Nigeria’s persistent electricity supply challenges.
He cited findings by the Global Initiative for Food Security and Ecosystem Preservation, indicating that many Nigerians remain unaware of the proposed import restrictions and their potential implications.
According to him, respondents in the report largely favoured a phased ban supported by incentives for importing raw materials needed for local production.
“The report also shows that infrastructure for locally manufactured panels is not fully available, so there is need for foreign direct investment improvement in government policy.
“So that the local manufacturers and assembling companies can have higher capacity to meet demand. If that is not done, the price of solar panels will go up”, he said.
He warned that affordability could become a major concern for consumers if restrictions are implemented without adequate preparation.
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