Oil & Energy
Supermajors Bet Big on Long-Term Oil Demand
The world’s largest international oil firms are ramping up production even as crude prices have weakened this year and global supply growth continues to outpace the demand increase, setting the stage for a glut in the coming months.
The European majors are back to investing in exploration and new oil and gas field developments after years of trying – and mostly failing – to generate profits and good returns from low-carbon energy projects, including renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and biofuels.
The U.S. supermajors, ExxonMobil and Chevron, are pumping record oil volumes in the top shale region, the Permian, while betting on international project expansions in Guyana and Kazakhstan, for example. The U.S. giants both reported in the second quarter record-high production in the Permian and worldwide, following Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron’s buying of Hess.
France’s TotalEnergies expects higher oil and gas production to have boosted earnings for the third quarter, despite a $10 per barrel decline in oil prices since last year.
Production at the other European supermajors, Shell and BP, is also rising as the European giants shifted focus back to their core oil and gas business. The pivot took place after the energy crisis made energy security and affordability more important than sustainability, while high interest rates and supply chain issues further reduced already meager returns from clean energy projects and made many new energy ventures uncompetitive.
The supermajors are confident they can withstand the current weaker prices and the surplus on the market, to which they have contributed, alongside the national oil companies of the OPEC+ producers, which have been reversing the production cuts this year.
Big Oil is looking beyond the short-term fundamentals and glut noise, having decided to invest more in oil and gas to meet solid demand until at least the mid-2030s.
Unlike the International Energy Agency (IEA), which earlier this year doubled down on its forecast of peak oil demand by the end of this decade, Big Oil companies don’t see any peak by 2030.
BP, which said last year that global oil demand would peak as early as this year, ditched this view in its new annual Energy Outlook last month, in which it now expects oil demand to rise through 2030 amid weaker-than-expected efficiency gains.
Most majors have put the peak at some point in the 2030s, but none expect a rapid decline afterwards, and all say that oil and gas will remain essential for global economic growth and development in 2050.
“Oil and natural gas are essential. There’s no other viable way to meet the world’s energy needs,” ExxonMobil said in its 2025 Global Outlook.
“Our Global Outlook projects that oil and natural gas will make up more than half of the world’s energy supply in 2050. We project that oil demand will stabilize after 2030, remaining above 100 million barrels per day through 2050,” the U.S. supermajor reckons.
“All major credible scenarios include oil and natural gas as a dominant energy source in 2050.”
All three scenarios analyzed in Shell’s 2025 Energy Security Scenarios found that upstream investment of around $600 billion a year “will be required for decades to come as the rate of depletion of oil and gas fields is two to three times the potential future annual declines in demand.”
Exxon and now the European majors are playing the long game—invest in new oil and gas supply, at the expense of renewables, to offset with new production the accelerating natural decline of producing oil and gas fields.
Even the IEA admitted last month that the world needs to develop new oil and gas resources just to keep output flat amid faster declining rates at existing fields, in a major shift in its narrative from 2021 that ‘no new investment’ is needed in a net-zero by 2050 scenario.
Exploration is also back at the top of the agenda for Big Oil, as the companies appear confident their product will be in demand for decades to come.
The expected massive overhang later this year and early next year is not putting off the supermajors’ plans to increase production. They are slashing costs via cutting thousands of workforce numbers to protect shareholder payouts at $60 per barrel oil. Companies have pledged billions of U.S. dollars in cost savings and slimmer corporate structures. That’s to eliminate inefficiencies and excessive costs while keeping payouts to shareholders at much lower prices compared to the 2022 highs.
This year, higher oil and gas production is partly offsetting the weaker prices.
Increased output also positions the world’s biggest companies for rising profits when the glut clears within a year or so, analysts say.
“All the supply coming to the market is shrinking OPEC’s spare capacity — so there’s a light at end of the tunnel,” Barclays analyst Betty Jiang told Bloomberg this week.
“Whether that’s second half of 2026 or 2027, the balance is going to tighten. It’s just a matter of when.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova
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The Niger Delta Power Holding Company Limited (NDPHC) has commenced a major electricity project aimed at ending a 15-year blackout in Rigasa community, Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State.
The General Manager, Corporate Communication and External Relations, NDPHC, Nazo Agim, made this known in a statement, in Abuja, at the weekend.
Agim said that the project, facilitated by the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Ideological Group (BAT-IG), comprises a two-kilometre 11kV line, a 1.5-kilometre 33kV line and a 7.5MVA, 33/11kV injection substation.Access Services
According to him, the project is designed to strengthen electricity distribution and improve power supply to residents and businesses in the community.
He said that the Rigasa project underscored NDPHC’s commitment to extending critical electricity infrastructure beyond generation to bridge distribution gaps.
He also said that the project would stimulate socioeconomic development and improve the quality of life in underserved communities across Nigeria.
Agim disclosed that a groundbreaking ceremony was performed earlier on Friday, by the Kaduna state Deputy Governor, Dr. Hadiza Balarabe, who represented Governor Uba Sani.
According to him, Balarabe, while speaking during the ceremony commended NDPHC for the intervention, describing it as a life-saving initiative that would address the community’s longstanding electricity challenges.
The NDPHC Managing Director, Jennifer Adighije, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to addressing the community’s electricity challenges.
Represented by the Executive Director, Networks, Babayo Bello, Adighije also reiterated NDPHC’s commitment to supporting President Bola Tinubu’s vision of improving electricity supply across the country.
She said that although NDPHC’s primary mandate was power generation, the company’s interventions also extended to transmission and distribution infrastructure to address critical gaps and expand electricity access.
According to her, the Rigasa project represents a worthwhile investment that will ease residents’ hardship and demonstrate the impact of targeted infrastructure development in underserved communities.Access Services
NDPHC Executive Director, Strategy and Commercial, Patrick Obahiagbon, commended the Kaduna state government and the community for their cooperation and support for the project.
The District Head of Rigasa, Mohammed Idris, also commended NDPHC’s management for its commitment to expanding electricity access in the community.
As the federal government intensifies efforts to strengthen Nigeria’s power infrastructure, it has commissioned 640 megawatts (MW) of electricity transmission capacity to the national grid with an additional six transmission substations in Kano and Katsina states, respectively.
The projects comprise four substations at Walalambe, Kumbotso, Dakata and Dan-Agundi in Kano State, which collectively add 544MW of transmission capacity, and two 60 megavolt amperes (MVA) substations in Kankia Local Government Area of Katsina State, contributing another 96MW.
The additional capacity is expected to improve the transmission network’s ability to evacuate and deliver available electricity to distribution companies and consumers in the two states.
The Ministry of Power announced the developments in a statement issued at the weekend.
According to the statement, the additional capacity is expected to improve the transmission network’s ability to evacuate and deliver available electricity to distribution companies and consumers in the two states.
The projects, however, increase transmission capacity rather than electricity generation, implying that their impact on supply would depend partly on the availability of power from generating plants and the capacity of downstream distribution networks.
Speaking at the commissioning of the Kankia substation, the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, said the projects reflected President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to improving the country’s electricity infrastructure.
“Mr. President’s Renewed Hope Agenda recognizes that economic ambition requires dependable infrastructure,” Tegbe said.
He added that investments in electricity infrastructure would strengthen the foundations for business expansion, employment and economic growth.
The Kankia substations comprise two 60 MVA, 132/33 kilovolt (kV) facilities designed to strengthen the transmission network serving Katsina State and neighbouring areas.
Tegbe said the infrastructure would improve the network’s ability to distribute available electricity, supporting commercial activities and household welfare.
He also urged residents to protect the facilities against vandalism and other activities that could disrupt electricity infrastructure, asking them to report suspicious activities to TCN or security agencies.
Katsina State Governor, Dikko Umaru Radda, described the project as a significant investment in the state’s electricity infrastructure.
Radda stated that improved electricity supply could support industrial development, economic growth and public service delivery.
He further commended the President, the Federal Ministry of Power and TCN for completing the project.
It would be noted that the latest projects come amid a broader government’s drive to address bottlenecks in Nigeria’s electricity transmission network, which has constrained the amount of electricity that can be delivered to distribution companies and end users.
The National Board for Technology Incubation (NBTI) has unveiled an investment and development-finance pipeline exceeding $600 million, alongside a proposed solar energy programme targeting one million micro and small businesses across Nigeria.
The Director-General, NBTI, Dr Kazeem Raji, disclosed this while presenting the outcomes of the 2026 NextGen Innovation Challenge at a World Press Conference, Abuja.
Raji said the investment pipeline comprised a proposed $500m solar energy programme for universities and polytechnics, which would be developed in partnership with Gigawatt Global, and a $100m financing opportunity linked to the Tinubu Light Initiative under a memorandum of understanding with Financial Innovation for Impact, UK, also known as Cambridge Investors.
He, however, clarified that the funds had not been fully secured or disbursed, stressing that their realisation would depend on due diligence, financing arrangements, contractual commitments, regulatory approvals and implementation requirements.
“These figures represent proposed investment and financing opportunities and should not be interpreted as $600m already received, disbursed or fully deployed in Nigeria,” he said.
According to Raji, the initiative was designed to connect Nigerian innovators with international investors, business leaders and development partners to accelerate the commercialisation of indigenous technologies.
He said the challenge attracted 298 Nigerian innovators from all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, up from 105 participants in 2025.
The innovations showcased covered artificial intelligence, robotics, agriculture, healthcare, education, renewable energy, telecommunications, digital technology, enterprise software, 3D printing and advanced manufacturing.
“Our message is straightforward: Nigeria’s innovators deserve visibility, our enterprises deserve opportunities to grow, and our technologies deserve pathways to the marketplace,” Raji said.
He added that NBTI’s priority was to move beyond showcasing ideas to helping innovators develop commercially viable products, establish sustainable businesses and create jobs.
The proposed Tinubu Light Initiative is expected to support one million micro and small businesses through access to solar energy solutions, with a proposed target of training and deploying 10,000 field marketers and creating 50,000 direct youth employment opportunities.
The initiative also targets N30bn in blended financing for its first phase and estimates annual economic benefits of about N12bn, subject to its underlying assumptions and implementation outcomes.
Raji said the programme was conceived to address the energy challenges facing small businesses, including high operating costs associated with unreliable electricity and dependence on petrol and diesel generators.
Tailors, barbers, hairdressers, pharmacies, food vendors, neighbourhood retailers, printing businesses and digital-service providers, he stated, are among the potential beneficiaries.
He said the initiative also envisaged opportunities to promote business formalisation and financial inclusion, particularly among informal enterprises, where appropriate arrangements could be established.
However, the NBTI director-general acknowledged that the programme’s success would depend on sound financing, transparent beneficiary selection, reliable equipment, maintenance arrangements and measurable delivery.
“Our vision is to make clean-energy access an enabler of enterprise development, not merely an infrastructure intervention,” he said.
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