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A Renewing Optimism For Naira

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Quote:”……in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.”
Nigeria’s national currency, the Naira, is creating a new buzz as it sets on rising trends following years of astronomical slides in the recent past. Just within a few months ago, naira’s trajectory charted almost a straight course, strengthening from N1,636.71/$ on April 10, 2025, to N1,465.68/$ on October 2, 2025. But financial analysts appear divided over the future fate of the local legal tender.While analysts like the Forbes and Renaissance Capital Africa (RENCAP) deride naira’s current trends as being unsustainable, Bloomberg sees a sunnier side. However, evolving economic landscapes strongly suggest that the naira might be charting a sustainable path of resilience. For more than four decades, the naira had never experienced favourable Foreign Exchange (FX) tussles.
Suffering under skewed supply and demand tensions against foreign currencies, the value of the naira had procedurally depreciated. It got worse when, at the height of subsidized petroleum products import-dependence, subsidies got suddenly withdrawn in May 2023 as the present government took over office. Barring local production of the products, coupled with poor export earnings, demands for scarce foreign currencies surged at all FX windows as product importers competed to make overseas payments. The result was cataclysmic. The naira depreciated rapidly against the dollar, falling from N460.7/$ in May 2023 to N1,706/$ in 2024. Hardships propagated across the entire Nigerian economy in ripples of hyper-inflation as is still being felt. The initial response from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was knee-jerk and unsustainable, as the regulator kept throwing its store of foreign reserve into FX markets to quench the ensuing inferno.
 Though the naira showed buoyancy at the expense of depleting reserves, the CBN was criticized against the hopelessness and unsustainability of such artificial floats. Thankfully for the local currency, after months of fire-fighting, the CBN, aided by other lucky developments, may have stumbled unto some formulae to weather the storms. Emerging econometrics now suggest that the economy may be in recovery, and the naira appears to be charting a more optimistic course, even as the apex bank still prods it. The lower oil production data of around one million barrels per day as at May 2023, has improved to around 1.51 million barrels per day at the moment. Surely, the fight against oil thefts is rewarding the economy with surpluses unencumbered by Nigeria’s debt-mortgaged oil futures.bSecondly, a changed petroleum products sourcing landscape, berthed by new-found local refining capacity at Dangote Refinery, if not strengthening the naira, must be tipping the balance of FX pressures in its favour.
While asserting its ability to fully satisfy local demands, the Dangote Refinery also hit a remarkable milestone when it shipped its first cargo of gasoline to the United States of America last month, drawing-in huge FX. Earlier, the refiners had shipped to Asia and West Africa, in a significant shift that has transited Nigeria from being a net-importer of petroleum product, to a net-exporter. Also, improvements in the non-oil exports are increasing the inflow of foreign currencies to Nigeria. Nigerian cocoa and other agro-products especially, got higher demands as crop diseases resulted in poor crop yields in neighboring West African countries. It should be noteworthy that CBN’s experiments with Naira-Yuan trade swaps with China may not have been of much favour. Though on-going trade swap arrangements between Nigerian and China which enable some settlement in naira and yuan, may ease dollar pressures, the huge trade imbalance between Nigeria and China may replace any gains with new yuan pressures.
 According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.
However, the CBN could be given credits for its bold reforms at the Foreign Exchange market that created a single Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) in October 2023, which replaced the former Investors’ and Exporters’ window, and later adopting the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) in December 2024. These steps successfully narrowed the gap between official FX rates and the black market. Even as the measures may not directly detect the balance of currency demands and supplies, improved transparency and liquidity raised confidence that is boosting foreign remittances via official channels. Added to improved exports, it is evident that the extra liquidity gives spontaneous buoyancy to the naira, in ways CBN’s panicked throwing-in of dollar into FX markets could not have.
This is why, when the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced during the 302nd monetary policy committee meeting that, “The second quarter 2025 current account balance recorded a significant surplus of $5.28 billion compared with $2.85 billion in first quarter of 2025,” there is need for him to identify significant drivers. The CBN deserves commendation also, for incrementally growing Nigeria’s Foreign Reserve savings from $34.39 billion as at May, 2023 to $42.40 as at October 2, 2025. The strength of a nation’s reserves reflects its ability to meet international payment obligations without straining the stability of its legal tender, and also serves as part of risk assessment criteria that determines its borrowing costs. Increasing reserves is projecting greater external resilience for Nigeria, which reflects in Moody’s upgrading, this year, of Nigeria’s rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3.’
With renewed investor confidence, foreign investments may be heading towards Nigeria as ripples from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) suggest. Following recent interest rate cuts in the US, foreign investors appear to be shifting appetites towards Nigerian portfolios. Improved reserve is also helping Nigeria at the Eurobond market, where the yield rates Nigeria pays on its loans, have fallen from above 8 percent in early 2024 to just over 5 percent by mid-2025. However, even as the N1,706/$ exchange rate of last year, compared to the current N1,465.68/$, may seem cheery, it is still a far cry from the N460.7/$ of May 2023, when this administration took over. Government and the CBN need to push further to shore-up greater reserves, and to build local and international assurances that attract job-creating investments for local production. Comparatively among its pairs, South Africa’s reserve is $70.42 billion, Algeria’s, $64.574 billion and Egypt’s, $49.04 billion.
Nigeria, which is being projected for a $1 trillion economy by 2050, should be focusing on $100 billion external reserves. Apart from reserves, Dangote local refining shows that local production is pivotal to the value of local currencies. Nigeria needs to improve security and infrastructure to reassure subsisting industries, and improve ease of doing business, in order to attract industries. Though Naira’s path of recovery this time is sustainable, the factors that aid it need to be sustained.
By: Joseph Nwankwor
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Opinion

Trans-Kalabari  Road:  Work In Progress 

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Quote:”This Dream project  is one of  the best things that have happened  to the people and residents of Degema, Asari Toru and Akuku Toru Local Government Areas in recent times.”
This is the concluding part of this story featured in our last edition.
Good road network helps farmers to convey their agro-allied products to  commercial hubs where buyers and sellers meet periodically to transact business. Road network engineers and motivates people resident in unfriendly geographical terrains, like riverine areas,  to own property and shuttle home with ease. Some people will prefer living in their own houses in a more serene and nature-blessed communities to living in the city that is fraught with  pollution, and other environmental, social and economic hazards. Prior to the cult epidemic that ravaged parts of Rivers State, the Emohuas, Elemes, Ogonis, and Etches were known for rural dwelling. Most public servants from these areas do their official and private transactions from  their villages. For them it was comparatively easier to live in the village and engage in a diversified economic endeavours through farming, fishing or other lucrative business without outrageous charges and embarrassment associated with doing business in Port Harcourt, where land is as scarce as the traditional needle.
That is why the decision to construct the Trans-Kalabari Road by the administration of Dr. Peter Odili was one of the best decisions that administration took. When Dr. Odili vacated office as the Rivers State Governor, Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi took over and awarded contracts for continuation of the road project which in my considered view is the felt need of  the people of Degema, Asari Toru and Akuku Toru Local Government Areas. Unfortunately, Rt. Hon. Amaechi’s efforts to drive the project was sabotaged by some contractors some of whom are Kalabari people. The main  Trans-Kalabari Road is one project that is dear to the people and residents of Degema, Asari Toru and Akuku Toru Local Government Areas of Rivers State. This is because through the road commuters can easily access several communities in the three local government areas. For instance, the road when completed will enable access to eight of the ten communities in Degema Local Government Area,  namely: Bukuma, Tombia,  Bakana, Oguruama, Obuama, Usokun, Degema town  and the Degema Consulate. It will also link 15 of the 16 communities in Asari Toru Local Government Area. The communities are: Buguma, the local government headquarters, Ido, Abalama, Tema, Sama, Okpo, Ilelema, Ifoko, Tema, Sangama, Krakrama, Omekwe-Ama, Angulama. The road will also connect  14  of 17 wards in Akuku Toru Local Government Area, and other settlements. It is interesting to note that It is faster,  and far more convenient and economical for the catchment Communities on the Trans-Kalabari Road network to go to the State Capital than the East West Road.  The people of the three local government areas will prefer  to work or do their transactions in Port Harcourt from their respective communities to staying in Port Harcourt where the house rent and the general cost of living is astronomically high.
 Consequently, development will seamlessly spread to the 28 out of 34 communities of Degema, Asari Toru and Akuku Toru Local Government Areas. The only Communities that are not linked by the road project are Oporoama in Asari Toru,  the Ke and  Bille Communities in Degema Local Government Area and the “Oceania” communities of Abissa, Kula, Soku, Idama, Elem Sangama of Akuku Toru Local Government Area. But because of the economic value of the unlinked Communities to Nigeria, (they produce substantial oil and gas in the area), the Federal, State Governments and the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), can extend the road network to those areas just as Bonny is linked to Port Harcourt and the Lagos Mainland Bridge is connecting several towns in Lagos and neighbouring States.Kudos to previous administrations who  had constructed the Central Group axis.
 However, what is said to be the First Phase of the Trans-Kalabari Road project is actually a linkage of the “Central Group” Communities which consists of Krakrama, Angulama, Omekwe. Ama, Omekwe Tari Ama, Ifoko, Tema, Sangama. It is the peripheral of the Trans-Kalabari Road. The completion of the  Main Trans Kalabari project will free Port Harcourt and Obio/Akpor areas from congestion. It will motivate residents and people of the three local areas to contribute to the development of their Communities. If the Ogonis, Etches, Emohuas, Oyigbos, Okrikas, Elemes can feel comfortable doing business in Port Harcourt from home, residents and people whose communities are linked to Port Harcourt through the Trans-Kalabari Road will no doubt, do likewise. The vast arable virgin land of the Bukuma people can be open for development and sustainable agricultural ventures by Local, State and Federal Government.
It is necessary to recall that the Bukuma community was host to the Federal Government’s Graduate Farmers’ Scheme and the Rivers State Government moribund School-to-Land Scheme under Governor Fidelis Oyakhilome. Bukuma was the only community in Degema, Asari Toru and Akuku Toru Local Government Areas that has the capacity to carry those agricultural programmes. However the lack of road to transport farm produce to Port Harcourt and facilitate the movement of the beneficiaries of the scheme who lived in the community which is several miles away from the farms, hampered the sustainability of the programme. The main Trans-Kalabari Road remains the best gift to the people of Degema, Asari Toru, and Akuku-Toru Local Government Areas. Kudos to Sir Siminilayi Fubara.
By: Igbiki Benibo
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Opinion

That  U.S. Capture of Maduro

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Quote:”Strategic convenience does not nullify sovereignty. Political frustration does not authorise military abduction.”
The first part of this story was published in our last edition.
 
In Africa and the Middle East, regime change—whether by invasion, proxy warfare, or sanctions—has often left behind fractured states, weakened institutions, and prolonged instability. Washington’s motivations in Venezuela are widely understood: vast oil reserves, alliances with U.S. rivals, and symbolic defiance of American influence in the Western Hemisphere. But none of these reasons confer legal or moral legitimacy. Strategic convenience does not nullify sovereignty. Political frustration does not authorise military abduction. If every powerful nation acted on its grievances in this manner, global chaos would inevitably follow. International law provides mechanisms for accountability. Under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), individuals accused of crimes against humanity or other grave offences are subject to investigation and prosecution through judicial processes.
Likewise, extradition treaties, mutual legal assistance agreements, and Interpol mechanisms exist to ensure accountability while respecting due process. These frameworks were designed precisely to prevent unilateral enforcement of “justice” by military force. The most profound consequence of America’s action may not be in Caracas, but in the precedent it sets. If the world accepts that a superpower can unilaterally depose another country’s president, then the foundation of the international system is weakened. Sovereignty becomes conditional—no longer a right, but a privilege tolerated at the discretion of the powerful. Going forward, if another country invades its neighbour, will the United States retain the moral authority to impose sanctions or demand restraint? Some analysts already warn that parallels between Russia’s actions in Ukraine and America’s conduct in Venezuela risk further eroding global norms. Selective adherence to international law breeds cynicism and accelerates the drift toward a world governed by force rather than rules.
Power—military, economic, or political—should serve human progress and collective well-being, not domination and destruction. For African nations, many of which emerged from colonial rule through bitter struggle, this precedent is especially alarming. Sovereignty is not an abstract legal concept; it is a hard-won shield against external domination. Any erosion of that principle anywhere weakens it everywhere. Africa’s painful history of foreign interference makes this lesson especially urgent.  For me, the real issue is not whether Nicolás Maduro is a good or bad leader. That judgment belongs, first and foremost, to the Venezuelan people. The larger issue is whether the international system still operates on law—or has quietly reverted to hierarchy. If America insists it is defending global order, it must ask itself a difficult question: can an order survive when its most powerful guardian feels entitled to violate it? Until that question is answered honestly, the capture of a foreign president will remain not a triumph of justice, but a troubling symbol of a world drifting from law toward force.
If the United States felt so strongly about the allegations of terrorism, drug trafficking  against Maduro, were there no other lawful options? Judicial accountability, diplomacy, regional mediation, and multilateral pressure may be slow and imperfect, but they reflect respect for international law and sovereign equality. Military seizure is a blunt instrument. It humiliates institutions, radicalizes populations, and hardens resistance. It may remove a leader, but it rarely resolves the underlying crisis. History teaches that military interventions seldom result in stable democratic outcomes. More often, they breed resentment, resistance, and long-term instability. For the sake of global order and the rule of law, the United States should reconsider this path and recommit to diplomacy, legal cooperation, and respect for the sovereign equality of states. Former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly described the invasion of Venezuela as “unlawful and unwise,” warning that such actions “do not make America safer, stronger, or more affordable.” Her words reflect a growing recognition, even within the United States, that force without legitimacy undermines both moral authority and global stability.
Should what happened in Venezuela serve as a wake-up call for corrupt African leaders who undermine the people’s right to choose their leaders? The answer is yes. The capture of Maduro should alarm African leaders who manipulate elections, weaken institutions, suppress opposition, undermine citizens’ rights, or cling to power at all costs. Venezuela faced widespread criticism over disputed elections and repression long before this episode, and that context shaped how the world reacted. This does not justify foreign military intervention, but it highlights an uncomfortable truth: prolonged democratic decay isolates nations and invites external pressure—from sanctions to diplomatic censure. Global opinion matters, and legitimacy at home strengthens sovereignty abroad. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and several African leaders have rightly condemned the events in Venezuela, invoking the principles of sovereignty and non-interference enshrined in international and regional law.
Beyond condemnation, however, African leaders must look inward. The continent’s future cannot be built on repression, constitutional manipulation, and personal greed. Leadership must reflect the will of the people, not desperation for power. Two days ago, a social commentator on a radio station argued that Trump’s action—though condemnable—demonstrates how far a leader can go for his country’s interest. According to this view, he did not intervene in Venezuela for personal enrichment, but to strengthen his nation. In stark contrast, many African leaders plunder their own countries. They siphon public resources, impose crushing taxes and harmful policies, and leave their citizens poorer—all for selfish gain. That contradiction is the deeper lesson Africa must confront.True sovereignty is protected not only by international law, but by accountable leadership at home.
 By:  Calista Ezeaku
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Opinion

Kudos  Gov Fubara

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Please permit me to use this medium to appreciate our able governor, Siminalayi Fubara for the inauguration of the 14.2-kilometre Obodhi–Ozochi Road in Ahoada-East Local Government Area.  This inauguration marks a significant milestone in the history of our communities and deserves commendation. We, the people of Ozochi, are particularly happy because this project has brought long-awaited relief after years of isolation and hardship.
The expression of our traditional ruler, His Royal Highness, Eze Prince Ike Ehie, JP, during the inauguration captured the joy of our people.  He said, “our isolation is over.”  That reflects the profound impact of this road on daily life, economic activities, and social integration of the people of Ozochi and other neighbouring communities. The road will no doubt ease transportation, improve access to markets and healthcare, and strengthen links between Ahoada, Omoku, and other parts of Rivers State.
The people of Ahoada, Omoku, and indeed Rivers State as a whole are grateful to our dear governor for this laudable achievement and wish him many more successful years in office. We pray that God endows him with more wisdom and strength to continue to pilot the affairs of the state for the benefit of all. As citizens, we should rally behind the governor and support his development agenda. Our politicians and stakeholders should embrace peace and cooperation, as no meaningful progress can be achieved in an atmosphere of conflict. Sustainable development in the state can only thrive where peace prevails.
Samuel Ebiye
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