Opinion
On Forex Restriction Policy
When on June 23, 2015, the immediate past federal government, through a circular from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, placed a ban on forex in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market for 43 items, some Nigerians raised concern on the possible effect of such restriction on the nation’s economy.
They advised that forex restriction on rice, cement, margarine, palm kernel, palm oil products, vegetable oils, meat and processed meat products, vegetables and processed vegetable products; poultry and processed poultry products; tinned fish in sauce (geisha)/sardine; toothpicks and many more could contribute to inflationary pressures as there would be limited availability of foreign exchange for these essential goods, adding that when businesses face higher costs for imports, these costs often get passed on to consumers through increased prices for locally produced goods and services.
It could be recalled that some economists appeared on interview programmes on the media, educating that forex restrictions could create instability in the foreign exchange market, as the demand for forex may exceed its supply. This they said could lead to multiple exchange rates, with a significant gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate, which can deter foreign investors and distort the economy.
Some people in the manufacturing sector warned that forex restrictions could lead to shortages of imported goods, including essential commodities and critical inputs for manufacturing and that businesses might struggle to maintain production, leading to supply disruptions and affecting employment and economic growth.
They warned that the policy would impact negatively on businesses as industries that rely heavily on imported raw materials or machinery could face operational difficulties, reduced production, and increased costs, which could lead to job losses and lower economic growth
Some other citizens were worried that forex restrictions would lead to the growth of black markets, where foreign exchange is traded at unofficial rates and could create opportunities for illegal activities and capital flight; that the policy could discourage foreign investors, as they could find it challenging to repatriate their profits and may be concerned about the business environment’s unpredictability; that over time, forex restrictions can deplete a country’s foreign exchange reserves, making it more vulnerable to external shocks and economic instability.
Incidentally, the government paid a deaf ear to these warnings. They claimed that restricting the items from accessing FX from investors and exporters (I & E) window was aimed at reducing foreign exchange demand for products that could be locally produced, improve employment generation and conserve foreign reserves as well as protecting and growing the local industries.
Today, eight years later, amidst the constant downward sliding of the nation’s currency, scarcity of forex and a collapsing economy, the forex restriction is lifted by the same apex bank that said the forex restriction policy was the ultimate and would take the nation’s economy to Eldorado.
Sometimes, it is difficult to understand the reasons behind some government’s actions and policies. Could it be for their selfish reasons, religious, political, tribal considerations or what? Is it in the interest of the nation and the citizens as they always claim? What has the general masses benefitted from the constant policy summersault other than economic hardship, increased poverty, hunger and the likes?
It is good that the House of Representatives had resolved to invite the Governor of CBN, Olayemi Cardoso, to give clarifications on the forex lifting policy and its implications on the economy. Let him go and explain to the nation how the latest policy will improve the nation’s economy and better the lots of the people. What will the increased demand for dollars, an inevitable result of the policy, do to our local economy?
What will be his answer to the fears expressed by the law makers and indeed many other Nigerians that the policy will impact negatively on the indigenous industries? Will it put more pressure on the scare forex, impact negatively on the indigenous industries and have an adverse effect on the already poor economy generally? Will it make it difficult for Nigeria to be competitive in the African Continental Free Trade Area because the markets will be flooded with imported finished goods as the law makers opined?
However, much as one identifies with the reason for some people’s pessimism over the lifting of the forex ban, it is imperative that we interrogate the gains of the ban while it lasted from 2015 till two weeks ago. How much changed throughout the period of banning of those items? Did it lead to the growth of the local industries as envisaged? How much attention and financial support was given to these industries to reinvigorate them?
Yes, it could be said that the policy led to the drive to bolster the production of local rice. The commitment of Muhammadu Buhari’s administration towards ensuring self-sufficiency in rice was very visible. The partial closure of the western border with Benin to curb rice smuggling, the anchor – borrowers programme of the CBN were some of the government’s attempt to boost local production even though it did not result in rice pyramid as Buhari and former CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele claimed.
Apparently, these interventions did not lead to the availability of rice and at affordable price. We recall the former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Audu Ogbeh, boasting in 2019 that the price of 50kg bag of local rice will crash from N18,000 to N13,000. That was never to be. Today, it goes for between N45,000 to 52,000 depending on the brand and your location.
The familiar problems of insecurity, high cost of energy, poor infrastructure, near nonexistent power, inadequate funding, irregular taxes, high exchange rate, unfavourable government policies and many more, made and still make the cost of production of the previously forex banned items very high. You can imagine farmers in some northern states paying bandits up to N1.7million annually as tax and harvest fees before they can have access to their farms and avoid being abducted as reported in the media.
The President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Francis Meshioye, recently disclosed that the unrelenting increase in production costs is posing a serious threat to the existence of the manufacturing sector. He said, “Currently, the cost of manufacturing is daily rising, owing to scarce and unavailable manufacturing inputs that continue to shrink profitability and threaten the existence of the critical sector of the economy.
“More worrisome is the fact that the sector that should propel job creation, productivity, and economic growth is enmeshed with a series of challenges that constantly limit its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product.”
Therefore, the law makers should not stop at inviting the CBN governor. They should come up with good legislations that will help in tackling these challenges. They should collaborate with the executive arm of government to save the economy from collapsing.
The legislators should also demonstrate their desire to see the economy bounce back by sacrificing some of their luxuries. They should discourage the executives from obtaining foreign loans to be shared to them and to buy exquisite cars for them or to be shared to the so called 15 million families for feeding for three months.
These monies should be channelled into subsidising power, provision of infrastructure, quality health care to the poor masses and in other avenues that will boost the economy.
Someone recently said that the government does not need advice on how to revive the nation’s economy and that is true. The economy is currently being driven by renowned economic experts. They have launched the 8-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu in addition to other policy reforms and beautiful ideas on how to make the economy vibrant again. What is needed now is for them to walk the talk.
By: Calista Ezeaku
Opinion
Fighting Insecurity: Shagari’s Model
What we see across the country today can only be surmounted through a decisive Presidential agenda devoid of politics and sentiments. Alhaji Shehu Shagari, faced with similar security threats, wasted no time in restoring order.
Shagari was still in his first year in office when Islamic fundamentalists, led by Muhammadu Marwa, better known as Maitatsine, visited terror on Kano. Domiciled in the Yan Awaki area, the man who originally hailed from Cameroon, began to create an empire of terrorists.
Kano was under the control of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) while the National Party of Nigeria ( NPN) controlled the Federal Government. Shagari, a Muslim, did not want to be politically correct because Kano was involved. He placed national security above everything else.
Realising that the terrorists had overwhelmed the police, killing about 100 of them including a Commissioner who was moved from Aba, the president applied military force. It took just two days for soldiers to crush Maitatsine and his followers. At the end, 5,000 civilians died and the Army lost 35 souls.
That was in 1980. Shagari set up a Judicial Commission headed by Justice Anthony Aniagolu. Hundreds of the trouble makers were sent to jail. And it turned out that among them were fighters from Chad, Niger Republic, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Mali.
On May 16, 1981, there was a skirmish at the Nigeria – Cameroon frontier. Second Lieutenant Seyiveh Sewhenu Amosu of the Nigerian Army, leading a patrol on the Akpa Yafe River, was killed in an ambush by Cameroonian forces. Four other soldiers, Felix Bemigho, Emmanuel Kasar, Joseph Imaja and Emmanuel Akpan also died.
Shagari wasted no time in showing Cameroon the power of Nigerian forces. His Service Chiefs had tasted battle during the Civil War. Chief of Defence Staff, Gibson Jalo, was a General Officer Commanding (GOC). Army Chief, Mohammed Wushishi, was part of the First Division, Chief of Naval Staff, Akin Aduwo, commanded a warship, his Air Force counterpart, Dominic Bello, was one of the few Federals that flew jet bombers.
The world watched as Nigerian forces moved to the border for war on Cameroon, whose troops had never seen battle anywhere. Having frightened the aggressor, Shagari diplomatically halted the planned assault.
In October 1982, some of Maitatsine’s loyalists, regrouped in Bulunkutu, Maiduguri. Among them were many released from jail, like what we see with Boko Haram fighters today. They burnt mosques, churches and humans, using body parts as charm. Again, Shagari acted decisively to decimate the terrorists.
On April 18, 1983, one Idris Debby, led Chadian troops to seize 21 Nigerian fishing villages. Shagari showed his stuff, once again. As Commander – in – Chief of the Armed Forces, he chose seasoned fighters, after consulting with his Defence Team.
Muhammadu Buhari, GOC of the 3rd Amoured Division was given the task of clearing the intruders. As the first governor of Borno State, the general knew the terrain so well. His mother was Kanuri, whose people knew much about Debby and the Zaghawa.
To support Buhari, Chris Ugokwe, a seasoned warrior and Commander of the 21 Armoured Brigade, led the battle. Ugokwe commanded Biafra’s 52 Brigade during the Civil War and was the officer who led 13 Armoured vehicles, under Ibrahim Babangida in 1976, to flush Bukar Dimka out of Radio Nigeria.
Ugokwe and Buhari were friends and Nigeria Military Training College (NMTC) course 5 mates. Babangida was their junior by one Course. It was because of Biafra that Ugokwe lost seniority but he was trusted by PMB and IBB. Ugokwe and Babangida were together in Kaduna during the January 15, 1966 coup.
Ugokwe drove Debby out of Nigeria and led troops into Chad. To show the strength of his Brigade, he planned to capture Ndjamena and was going to accomplish that task when Shagari, again, turned to diplomacy. The president called on Buhari to stop his troops.
That war with Chad gave the Armed Forces so much respect. The Air Force had men like Ben Ekele and Adamu Sakaba. Ekele was so good in all his training abroad that he was nicknamed ‘Air Hooligan’. His friend, Isaac Alfa, was known as ‘Air Warrior’.
Ekele played with the MiG fighter jets, like a toy. Some admirers gave him another name, ‘Ben The MiG’. Unfortunately, the officer was executed with Sakaba, in March 1986. Both were found guilty of treason by the Charles Ndiomu Military Tribunal, for their alleged roles in the Mamman Batss plot of 1985.
Shagari pushed our best into battle. Second Lieutenant Amosu, who was killed by Cameroonians, belonged to the Nigerian Defence Academy Regular Course (RC) 22. That RC later produced a Chief of Naval Staff, Dele Ezeoba, a governor, Inua Bawa, a Senator, Austin Akobundu and other prominent officers like Brigade of Guards Commander, J. O. Shoboiki, Task Force Commander, Sarkin Bello and Paul Izukanne. Another Amosu, Nunayon, became Chief of Air Staff.
President Bola Tinubu should follow Shagari’s footsteps. Nigeria is in trouble and there must be no consideration of tribe, tongue or party. Our Armed Forces can do better. We have many saboteurs in and out of power. What is paramount now is a new strategy.
The bloodletting is unprecedented. Citizens are slaughtered like chicken, daily all over the country. We call them bandits, in the North – West, killer herdsmen in the North – Central, terrorists in the North – East and Fulani herdsmen, in the entire South.
There is only one President and Commander – in – Chief. Tinubu is a strong man, cowardice is not part of his profile. He was part of the NADECO battalion that waged war on Sani Abacha. This is another war. Tinubu can and must fight like a Field Marshal.
Emeka Obasi
Obasi is an online journalist and analyst.
Opinion
Flood Disaster In Nigeria: Predictable Tragedy
Each year, Nigeria is struck by a disaster that has become so routine it barely shocks the national conscience anymore: devastating floods that displace thousands, destroy livelihoods, and cost the country billions in damages. From Lagos to Lokoja, Borno to Bayelsa, the story is the same—swollen rivers, submerged homes, lost farmland.
Children drop out of school as their homes or schools are flooded. Health crises follow, as stagnant water breeds Cholera and other waterborne diseases. Women and children bear disproportionate burdens, from increased caregiving duties to heightened vulnerability in overcrowded displacement camps.
Just last week, the country woke up to another flood disaster. Mokwa, a commercial hub in Niger State was swept away. About 200 lives were lost, 3,000 people were displaced, bridges washed away, families left heart broken.
The painful thing is that the meteorological agencies, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) and Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) usually issue annual warnings about impending floods but little or nothing will be done by both the authorities and the citizens to avert the disaster until it happens and everybody starts running helter skelter. At a press conference in Abuja on Tuesday, June 3, the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Utsev, clearly stated that flood warnings were given but they were not adhered to.
Speaking against the speculations that Mokwa flood was caused by the release of water from Kainji and Jebba Dams, he said, “Nigerians would recall that the Federal Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation through the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency in the 2025 Annual Flood Outlook on the 10th of April, 2025 predicted flooding in 19 LGAs of Niger State including Mokwa LGA.”
He also referred to the report of 2025 AFO, which indicated that 1,249 communities in 176 Local Government Areas in 33 States and the FCT fall within the High Flood Risk Areas, while 2,187 communities in 293 LGAs in 31 States, including the Federal Capital Territory, fall within the Moderate Flood Risk Areas.
Indeed, the floods in Nigeria are no longer unpredictable phenomena. Reports have it that in 2022, for example, over 600 lives were lost, 1.4 million people displaced, and over 200,000 homes damaged.
Crop-lands were washed away, leading to spikes in food prices and food insecurity. Infrastructure—already fragile—was further crippled. Subsequent years had similar reports. And yet, each year, State governments and citizens alike act surprised when the waters rise.
The causes of these floods are not mysterious. Climate change plays a role, with increasingly intense rainfall and rising sea levels. However, much of the devastation has been traced to human failings: poorly planned urban development, inadequate drainage systems, deforestation, and the mismanagement of river basins and dams.
For instance, the release of water from Cameroon’s Lagdo Dam annually inundates many States across the country, especially when the Dasin Hausa Dam, meant to contain the excess flow, remains incomplete decades after it was conceptualised. Similarly, urban expansion in many cities of the country often encroaches on natural floodplains and wetlands, replacing them with concrete that prevents water absorption and channels run-off into homes and roads.
Experts have claimed that at the heart of the flood disaster in the nation lies a deeper governance problem. Environmental policy is fragmented, implementation is weak, and coordination between federal, state, and local governments is almost non-existent. Flood response is often reactive—focused on rescue and relief—rather than preventive. Agencies like the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and State Emergency Management Agencies (SEMAs) are underfunded and overwhelmed. There is no better truth.
How many government agencies whose job is to prevent floods and other disasters do their jobs? Just like past floods in Nigeria, Mokwa flood has been largely attributed to unregulated buildings and construction activities, poor drainage infrastructure and the likes. And the question is, whose responsibility was it to ensure that these illegal buildings were not erected in the first place? Whose duty is it to ensure that refuse is disposed of properly and that defaulters are punished?
Of course, citizens are not to be exonerated from the blame. Many Nigerians find it difficult to obey rules. Many care less about the environment and they will be the first to cry woes when a disaster occurs. But the point remains that if the regulatory authorities do not wake up to their duties of ensuring that people comply with building codes and urban development guidelines, if they would rather collect money from developers and look the other way when water channels are covered with buildings, then, the floods so far seen might just be a child’s play.
It is high time the governments at all tiers and across all levels stopped seeing floods as seasonal inconveniences rather than existential threats. These authorities are quick to make promises in the aftermath of a flood, but once the waters recede, so does the urgency. Reports are written, funds are pledged, but structural action is rare. The cycle continues: warnings, inaction, disaster, aid appeals, and then silence—until the next year. How can this help the situation?
There is an urgent need for the completion of the Dasin Hausa Dam project in Adamawa State. Experts say that this dam, if functional, would serve as a buffer for the Lagdo Dam releases from Cameroon. The same goes with the need for rehabilitation and expansion of the country’s drainage systems, especially in urban centres. Most existing systems are outdated, clogged, or simply inadequate for today’s volume of rainfall.
Building codes and urban development guidelines must be enforced without compromise. State governments must stop the unchecked development on floodplains and demolish illegal structures that obstruct natural drainage. New developments must include adequate drainage systems, and environmental impact assessments must be mandatory and rigorously enforced.
Government should carry out resettlement programmes for people living in high-risk zones. It is not enough to announce that people living along river banks and flood prone areas should move to higher lands. Are provisions made for them to move and to settle on higher lands?
Also, early warning systems must go beyond press releases and scientific bulletins. They must translate into community-level awareness and preparedness. NEMA and SEMAs should partner with local governments, traditional institutions, and civil society to educate the public on flood risks and evacuation plans.
Community-based disaster response teams can be trained and equipped to act swiftly when floods occur. More importantly, simulations and drills should be conducted periodically, not just after disasters strike.
It is also important that the government, both state and federal, collaborate with the private sector to introduce subsidised flood insurance scheme, especially for farmers and small business owners who bear the brunt of flood damages.
Climate change is no longer an abstract threat; it is a daily reality. Federal and state governments must integrate climate resilience into all development policies. Ministries of Environment, Works, Water Resources, and Agriculture must collaborate to build climate-smart infrastructure.
This also includes reforestation projects, sustainable agriculture practices, and policies to reduce carbon emissions. Nigeria’s national climate adaptation plan must be updated and fully implemented, with budgetary allocations that reflect the seriousness of the problem.
Transparency in the use of emergency funds and infrastructure budgets is essential. Anti-corruption agencies should investigate diversion of funds meant for disaster preparedness and flood mitigation.
Nigeria’s flood disaster is now a national emergency that requires urgent, collective, and sustained action. We can no longer afford the complacency that treats annual floods as inevitable. The science is clear, the patterns are consistent, and the solutions are known. What is missing is the will to act.
A flood-resilient Nigeria is possible. It begins with planning, continues with investment, and is sustained by accountability. We must break the cycle of annual disaster and move toward a future where the rainy season is a blessing, not a curse.
President Bola Tinubu must be commended for approving the release of ?2 billion, 20 trucks of rice for victims. That will go a long way in helping them if they are not diverted by those in the chain of their release and distribution.
Calista Ezeaku
Opinion
AI And Transformation of Nigeria’s Education
The increasing advent of technology is slowly, but evidently taking over major sectors in the world today, but not so much in Nigeria. Education is the backbone of any country, especially if it is one that hopes for the better future of its youths and the growth of the country at large.
Despite the known fact that education is key to national development, Nigeria’s education sector seems to be buckling under pressure ranging from a limited access to quality learning resources, poor school infrastructure, and overcrowded classrooms, among others.
It does not end there as many educators lack the digital literacy to properly use these tools. Proper strategies, digital literacy training and a focus on providing proper infrastructure in schools are the barriers that need to be tackled to surmount this challenge. Addressing these issues first would pave way for Artificial Intelligence (AI) integration in schools.
Though, AI is more than technical jargon, it just might be what Nigeria needs to level the playing field, especially since it looks like we are being left behind with all the innovation technology has brought along. With its personalised features, teachers can tailor lesson plans based on each student’s weaknesses which would positively affect learning outcomes. Imagine a school in Kano, where students learn English through AI-powered applications and resources. It would give better opportunities for the teacher to have more time to give them more personal attention.
However, to fully realise these benefits, there are certain underlying issues that AI can easily tackle, especially those in rural areas, where there is lack of electricity, proper ICT tools, and internet connectivity.
A United States based publication, EdTech, noted that there is an increasing strain in the ability of teachers to carry out their occupational demands with planning lessons, meeting parents and guardians, and other administrative responsibilities.
However, according to Carnegie Learning, teachers who have embraced AI have seen notable changes in students’ outcome and their work flow. In their research, 42 per cent found out that using AI reduced time spent on administrative duties, 25 per cent noted that AI was particularly useful in assisting with personalised learning, and 18 percent of them reported an increase in students’ engagement. Only one percent could report no change at all with the use of AI in the classroom.
Notably, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), highlighted the potential of AI to address challenges in education, and its ability to innovate teaching and learning, as long as it is deployed safely and ethically. This connotes that every good innovation has a negative downside, and Artificial intelligence is not without.
According to UNESCO, well thought out strategies to maximise the use of AI in classrooms is what our education sector needs. I believe that as a nation we need to set policies that are channelled towards AI integration into the education system, and more importantly, all hands should be on deck to facilitate its process.
Teachers as well as students have a role to play in ensuring that it is not misused and rendered a vice. If we do not integrate AI soon enough, the learning gap between Nigeria and other nations will continue to widen, as it is already the case for most sectors of the country. This gap would not only widen, but it would go on to affect our youths who will be left behind in the global workforce.
Though, schools are known to be institutions of socialisation, where teachers play a major role in shaping the minds and outlook of the students in the classroom, I do not see AI as a replacement for teachers and evidently cannot take the job of educators. Additionally, the World Economic Forum noted that while AI can enhance the learning processes, it cannot replicate the human element that is needed by every student – that which is provided by teachers.
Therefore, AI is not a threat to teachers; rather it is a partner that benefits not just the teachers, but the students as well. It is important that policy makers move to develop and implement policies that integrate AI into the education system in Nigeria. The earlier we embrace this innovation, the better it will be for the future of every child.
Eniola Shobiye
Shobiye, a student, writes from the University of Ilorin.
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