Opinion
Kwankwaso’s Tea Leaves
In a recent TV interview, the Presidential Candidate of New Nigeria’s People’s Party (NNPP), and former Governor of Kano State, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso attributed the collapse of his party’s merger negotiations with the Labour Party, and its Presidential Candidate, former Governor of Anambra State, Mr Peter Obi, to the ‘Mood of the North’. In his words, “What I’m telling you is that if anybody from the South-East now, under this circumstance, becomes the presidential candidate of our party or any other party, the implication is that because of the activities and other issues that are really on ground, northern voters will certainly go for their northern candidate and another party. So, the thinking is not whether I like it or I don’t, the fact remains that everybody will lose. He will lose and I will lose.”
To support his position, the former governor gave a brief lesson from political history to the effect that pursuing any other political maneuvers in the current electoral cycle would be politically inexpedient. According to him, “there is what we call ‘mood’ at any election cycle. In fact, if you look at it in 1992/1993 when MKO Abiola contested to be president of this country, the mood at that time was for us to support the South and that was exactly what we did. In 1999, I was governor-elect when Obasanjo, Ekwueme, and others contested. Abubakar Rimi was there and he wanted to become president. We all believed that he was qualified but the mood was for the presidency to go to the South. We went to the Jos convention and we voted 100 percent for Obasanjo.
The same thing in 2003. At the moment, the mood in the North today is that the presidency should be in the North. That is why I couldn’t accept to be his running mate.”
For most political pundits, Kwankwaso’s recent remarks indicate the early signs of regret for the loss of a huge political opportunity, given his cult-like following in the North. But, for others, this writer inclusive, it is either his Tea Leaves are falling, or he is suffering from a case of bad political stew, prepared with two unyielding political vices of inordinate ambition and self-interest. Maybe, the potency of his political stew has attenuated his political sight.
A common code of most Nigerian politicians of the current era, is that politics is a game of interest, but my question is, what interest should be overriding – the interest of one, or the interest of all? Sadly, the interest of one is the mainstay of Nigerian politics. Earlier this year, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and now presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, held a meeting with the PDP’s Board of Trustees to discuss the imperative of winning the 2023 presidential election; and while alluding to imminent candidacy, he said, “Your excellences, friends, brothers and sisters, we are now at a crucial moment in this country. Many of you here, it is either we retire together or we move on together.”
As a former vice president on the platform of the PDP, and as a founding member of the party, he was fully aware of the provision, and the spirit of Section 7(2) (c) of the PDP’s constitution which states thus: “ In pursuance of the principle of equity, justice, and fairness, the party shall adhere to the policy of rotation and zoning of the party and public elective offices.’ Apparently, most political elites of the North are also studying the same Tea Leaves, including the National Chairman of PDP, Senator Iyorchia Ayu. This may have accounted for his early romance with the former vice president, according to Kassim Afegbua, a PDP chieftain and spokesman for former Nigerian military president, Ibrahim Babangida, who alleged that “the Ayu-led executive had been working for the realisation of Atiku Abubakar’s ambition right from the inauguration.”
That was chiefly why the sales of forms for the presidential ticket took off even when the 37-man panel on zoning was yet to arrive at a decision on the issue. Besides, if not for the disingenuous reading, and interpretation of the PDP’s constitution, the issue of zoning could not have arisen, considering the fact that the current President is from the North, and a Fulani for that matter. How hard is it for Atiku, and his inner circle to work out the difference between 62 and 41, and 41 being the total number of years the North has ruled since independence?
The desperation of a select few in the North has dislocated the PDP’s constitution that was midwifed by the G.34 which Senator Iyorchia Ayu was a member. It is political duplicity, and I feel sorry for the PDP National Chairman who was part of the team that drafted that very inclusive document of the G.34, that tried to lay the groundwork for a better Nigeria, where no one is left out. The desperation of the PDP that has brought to its current impasse was succinctly described by a former Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, when he opined that “the PDP is desperate to return to power and Nigerians also want a change of government. So, the PDP out of desperation is prepared to have anybody from anywhere as long as the person would win the presidency. Sometimes, they are overlooking the justice of the matter.”
Northern oligarchs like Atiku Abubakar, regularly advance the idea of a monolithic North in pursuit of a homogeneous political destiny. Of course, everyone knows it is in their best interest to hold this line of thought, even if Nigeria burns to ashes. Unfortunately for them, the current political posture of a sizable voting bloc in the Middle-Belt does not support the next president coming from the North. More so, of Fulani extraction, especially after the mayhem of the past seven years. Nigeria as a nation would be on its way to extinction if indeed, Kwankwaso’s reading of the Tea Leaves were to be correct. Because, the clear message to the South would have been, “ to your tents O Israel.” It would mean that the people of the North were actually born to rule. Thankfully, this is not the case, in fact, it is the opinion of an endangered few in the PDP, and other political parties, like Kwankwaso’s NNPP.
It is sad that the politics of lies, personal interest, and exclusion has replaced that of truth, fairness, equity, justice, and nation-building. This style of politics is unethical and completely void of patriotism, it breeds cronyism, corruption, and incompetence; and the result is the collapse of trust among the populace, and weak institutions that are unable to serve the needs of the people, or to fulfil the primary duty of government, which is to protect lives and property.
Under President Buhari’s government, the days of good tidings have been very few, and a report released last week by Jihad Analytics, an international research/ analysis group that specialises in collating data on terrorists’ activities worldwide has added to the bad news. According to their half-year report, from January to June, Nigeria is now ranked as the second most terrorised nation, after Iraq. The report questions the credibility, truth-telling, and the claim by the Buhari administration that terrorists in the country have been degraded. In fact, alluding to the ‘Mood of the Nation’ in a recent speech in Lagos, at the Never Again Conference, organised by the Nzuko Umunna and Ndigbo, Prof Banjo Akintoye noted that the mood in Nigeria today is similar to what it was in the months leading to the 1967 civil war.
He said, “The government is being managed in ways that make it look like an exclusive preserve of a particular minority. There seems to be an agenda being pursued to establish this minority in all positions of command in the executive, administrative, judicial, and security services of the country.” “The voices of the majority register protests continually and are continually disrespected and ignored. The state of the law is patently being subsumed to the needs of that agenda, with seriously damaging effects on human rights. These situations are inevitably fostering, among the peoples of the Middle Belt and South of the country, the feeling that they are being reduced to the status of conquered peoples of Nigeria.”
The current mood of the country does not overlook the issues of equity, fairness, and justice; rather, it is more concerned with the capacity, competence, and credibility of whoever becomes the next president. The mood in the nation is for a president who is able to bend to every religion, tribe, and tongue, yet stands firm to defend the territorial integrity of this nation; and to turn the economic fortunes of this nation around come 2023.
By: Raphael Pepple
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo