Opinion

A Renewing Optimism For Naira

Published

7 months ago

October 27, 2025

Quote:”……in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.”

Nigeria’s national currency, the Naira, is creating a new buzz as it sets on rising trends following years of astronomical slides in the recent past. Just within a few months ago, naira’s trajectory charted almost a straight course, strengthening from N1,636.71/$ on April 10, 2025, to N1,465.68/$ on October 2, 2025. But financial analysts appear divided over the future fate of the local legal tender.While analysts like the Forbes and Renaissance Capital Africa (RENCAP) deride naira’s current trends as being unsustainable, Bloomberg sees a sunnier side. However, evolving economic landscapes strongly suggest that the naira might be charting a sustainable path of resilience. For more than four decades, the naira had never experienced favourable Foreign Exchange (FX) tussles.

Suffering under skewed supply and demand tensions against foreign currencies, the value of the naira had procedurally depreciated. It got worse when, at the height of subsidized petroleum products import-dependence, subsidies got suddenly withdrawn in May 2023 as the present government took over office. Barring local production of the products, coupled with poor export earnings, demands for scarce foreign currencies surged at all FX windows as product importers competed to make overseas payments. The result was cataclysmic. The naira depreciated rapidly against the dollar, falling from N460.7/$ in May 2023 to N1,706/$ in 2024. Hardships propagated across the entire Nigerian economy in ripples of hyper-inflation as is still being felt. The initial response from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was knee-jerk and unsustainable, as the regulator kept throwing its store of foreign reserve into FX markets to quench the ensuing inferno.

Though the naira showed buoyancy at the expense of depleting reserves, the CBN was criticized against the hopelessness and unsustainability of such artificial floats. Thankfully for the local currency, after months of fire-fighting, the CBN, aided by other lucky developments, may have stumbled unto some formulae to weather the storms. Emerging econometrics now suggest that the economy may be in recovery, and the naira appears to be charting a more optimistic course, even as the apex bank still prods it. The lower oil production data of around one million barrels per day as at May 2023, has improved to around 1.51 million barrels per day at the moment. Surely, the fight against oil thefts is rewarding the economy with surpluses unencumbered by Nigeria’s debt-mortgaged oil futures.bSecondly, a changed petroleum products sourcing landscape, berthed by new-found local refining capacity at Dangote Refinery, if not strengthening the naira, must be tipping the balance of FX pressures in its favour.

While asserting its ability to fully satisfy local demands, the Dangote Refinery also hit a remarkable milestone when it shipped its first cargo of gasoline to the United States of America last month, drawing-in huge FX. Earlier, the refiners had shipped to Asia and West Africa, in a significant shift that has transited Nigeria from being a net-importer of petroleum product, to a net-exporter. Also, improvements in the non-oil exports are increasing the inflow of foreign currencies to Nigeria. Nigerian cocoa and other agro-products especially, got higher demands as crop diseases resulted in poor crop yields in neighboring West African countries. It should be noteworthy that CBN’s experiments with Naira-Yuan trade swaps with China may not have been of much favour. Though on-going trade swap arrangements between Nigerian and China which enable some settlement in naira and yuan, may ease dollar pressures, the huge trade imbalance between Nigeria and China may replace any gains with new yuan pressures.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.

However, the CBN could be given credits for its bold reforms at the Foreign Exchange market that created a single Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) in October 2023, which replaced the former Investors’ and Exporters’ window, and later adopting the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) in December 2024. These steps successfully narrowed the gap between official FX rates and the black market. Even as the measures may not directly detect the balance of currency demands and supplies, improved transparency and liquidity raised confidence that is boosting foreign remittances via official channels. Added to improved exports, it is evident that the extra liquidity gives spontaneous buoyancy to the naira, in ways CBN’s panicked throwing-in of dollar into FX markets could not have.

This is why, when the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced during the 302nd monetary policy committee meeting that, “The second quarter 2025 current account balance recorded a significant surplus of $5.28 billion compared with $2.85 billion in first quarter of 2025,” there is need for him to identify significant drivers. The CBN deserves commendation also, for incrementally growing Nigeria’s Foreign Reserve savings from $34.39 billion as at May, 2023 to $42.40 as at October 2, 2025. The strength of a nation’s reserves reflects its ability to meet international payment obligations without straining the stability of its legal tender, and also serves as part of risk assessment criteria that determines its borrowing costs. Increasing reserves is projecting greater external resilience for Nigeria, which reflects in Moody’s upgrading, this year, of Nigeria’s rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3.’

With renewed investor confidence, foreign investments may be heading towards Nigeria as ripples from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) suggest. Following recent interest rate cuts in the US, foreign investors appear to be shifting appetites towards Nigerian portfolios. Improved reserve is also helping Nigeria at the Eurobond market, where the yield rates Nigeria pays on its loans, have fallen from above 8 percent in early 2024 to just over 5 percent by mid-2025. However, even as the N1,706/$ exchange rate of last year, compared to the current N1,465.68/$, may seem cheery, it is still a far cry from the N460.7/$ of May 2023, when this administration took over. Government and the CBN need to push further to shore-up greater reserves, and to build local and international assurances that attract job-creating investments for local production. Comparatively among its pairs, South Africa’s reserve is $70.42 billion, Algeria’s, $64.574 billion and Egypt’s, $49.04 billion.

Nigeria, which is being projected for a $1 trillion economy by 2050, should be focusing on $100 billion external reserves. Apart from reserves, Dangote local refining shows that local production is pivotal to the value of local currencies. Nigeria needs to improve security and infrastructure to reassure subsisting industries, and improve ease of doing business, in order to attract industries. Though Naira’s path of recovery this time is sustainable, the factors that aid it need to be sustained.

By: Joseph Nwankwor

Opinion

Confronting National Development In Chinese Style

Published

3 days ago

May 13, 2026

The Tide

Quote: “China’s rise was not a miracle. It was the result of deliberate planning, disciplined execution, and a national determination to make poverty reduction the foundation of national development.”

A short TikTok video by @ancientchinaforever recently offered a compelling summary of China’s remarkable transformation from one of the world’s poorest nations to a global economic powerhouse. In just a few minutes, it captured a lesson that developing countries like Nigeria cannot afford to ignore: meaningful development does not happen by chance. It is the product of vision, consistency, and a deliberate commitment to confronting poverty. In 1981, according to the World Bank, nearly 88 percent of China’s population lived in extreme poverty. The country was overwhelmingly rural, industrially weak, and lacking in modern infrastructure. Millions of people had limited access to quality healthcare, education, and basic social services. Yet China refused to accept poverty as its destiny. Its leaders made a strategic decision to treat poverty reduction as the starting point of national development.

Rather than relying on slogans or isolated welfare programmes, they created a coordinated system that mobilised government institutions at every level toward one overriding goal: improving the living conditions of ordinary citizens.

This was the turning point in China’s history. Poverty alleviation became a national mission. Clear targets were established, responsibilities were assigned to provincial and local governments, and officials were evaluated based on measurable results. Data was used to identify poor households, monitor progress, and adjust strategies where necessary.In effect, China built what may be described as a national development machine.The first major reforms focused on agriculture. Through the household responsibility system, farmers were given greater control over their land and allowed to sell surplus produce after meeting government quotas.

This policy created incentives for productivity and innovation. The results were dramatic. Agricultural output rose significantly, rural incomes increased, and millions were lifted out of poverty.With food security improving, China turned to industrialisation. The government established Special Economic Zones, most notably in Shenzhen, to attract foreign investment and promote export-driven manufacturing. What was once a small fishing community quickly transformed into one of the world’s leading industrial and technology hubs. Factories created millions of jobs, drawing workers from rural areas into expanding urban centres. China soon became the manufacturing capital of the world, producing electronics, textiles, machinery, and consumer goods for global markets.The revenue generated from industrial growth was reinvested in infrastructure and human development.

China understood that development requires more than factories. It demands modern infrastructure that connects people, goods, and markets. Massive investments were made in roads, railways, airports, seaports, electricity, and telecommunications.

Today, China’s high-speed rail system, modern cities, and efficient logistics networks stand as visible proof of decades of purposeful investment. Equally important was China’s commitment to education and healthcare.Schools were expanded, literacy improved, and vocational training equipped workers with the skills needed in a modern economy. Healthcare reforms reduced preventable diseases and protected families from being pushed deeper into poverty by medical costs.These investments ensured that economic growth translated into tangible improvements in living standards.

Another defining feature of China’s development model was policy continuity. Through successive Five-Year Plans, national priorities were clearly outlined and pursued over decades. While leaders changed, the core development agenda remained consistent. This stability encouraged investment, strengthened institutions, and allowed long-term projects to be completed. Unlike countries where each administration abandons the policies of its predecessor, China sustained a clear sense of direction.The results have been extraordinary. According to the World Bank, China has lifted more than 800 million people out of extreme poverty—the largest poverty reduction effort in human history. A broad middle class has emerged, and the country has become the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese companies such as Huawei Technologies and Alibaba Group now compete at the forefront of global innovation.

China’s journey has not been without challenges. Rapid industrialisation has contributed to environmental degradation, regional disparities, and demographic pressures. However, these challenges do not diminish the scale of its achievement. They underscore the complexity of transforming a nation of over one billion people. For Nigeria, China’s experience offers valuable lessons. First, poverty reduction must be treated as a strategic national priority rather than a campaign promise. Second, development requires long-term planning and policy continuity. Third, sustained investment in agriculture, infrastructure, education, and healthcare is essential. Fourth, institutions must be strengthened to ensure accountability and measurable outcomes. Finally, leadership must combine vision with disciplined execution. Nigeria is richly endowed with natural resources, entrepreneurial talent, and a youthful population.

What remains missing is a coherent and consistent development strategy that places national interest above politics. China’s transformation demonstrates that development is not a matter of luck. It is the outcome of clear priorities, effective institutions, and unwavering commitment. For countries still grappling with poverty and underdevelopment, China stands as compelling proof that when a nation confronts its challenges with strategic intent and collective discipline, extraordinary progress is possible.

Sylvia ThankGod-Amadi

Opinion

Workers’ Welfare Beyond May Day Rhetoric

Published

3 days ago

May 13, 2026

The Tide

Quote: Nigerian workers have endured years of hardship with remarkable resilience. What they need now is not ceremonial praise, but decisive policies that restore the dignity and value of labour”.

Beyond the colourful parades, speeches, and festivities that accompany Workers’ Day celebrations lies a sobering reality: Nigerian workers are under immense pressure. For many, May Day has become less a celebration of labour and more a reminder of the widening gap between official promises and everyday hardship. Across the country, workers are struggling with rising living costs, insecurity, and exploitative employment practices. These challenges directly affect how Nigerians feed their families, commute to work, and plan for the future. If left unresolved, they threaten both workers’ welfare and the nation’s economic stability. One of the biggest burdens facing workers today is the soaring cost of petrol. Since the deregulation of the petroleum sector, fuel prices have become highly unstable. At filling stations, prices can change within days, leaving commuters and businesses uncertain about what to expect.

For a country that is one of the world’s major oil producers, this situation is both frustrating and ironic. Years of neglect in the refining sector have left Nigeria dependent on imported petroleum products and exposed to global price shocks. The consequences are severe. Transport fares have risen sharply, consuming a large portion of workers’ salaries. After paying for transportation, many workers have little left for food, school fees, healthcare, and rent. Government must therefore take urgent steps to cushion the impact. Policies such as selling crude oil to local refineries in naira and ensuring greater price stability could help lower the cost of refined products. Temporary relief measures, transparently managed, may also provide short-term support while deeper reforms are implemented. Equally troubling is the nation’s worsening security situation.

In many communities, workers can no longer engage in farming or small-scale business activities because of kidnapping, banditry, and violent attacks. This has led to abandoned farmlands, reduced food production, and increasing hunger. Security is not only a governance concern; it is an economic necessity. Without safety, productivity declines, investment suffers, and workers sink deeper into poverty.bRecent comments by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu suggesting that political actors may be sponsoring insecurity have heightened public expectations. Nigerians want swift and decisive action against those responsible. Restoring security must be treated as a national emergency. Another issue dominating labour discussions is the call for an upward review of the national minimum wage. During this year’s Workers’ Day celebration, the President of the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria, Festus Osifo, indicated that labour unions may begin negotiations for a wage increase by July 2026.

The demand is understandable. However, salary increases alone cannot solve workers’ problems if inflation continues to erode purchasing power. The real issue is not merely how much workers earn, but what their earnings can buy. Meaningful improvement requires broader economic reforms. Stabilising the naira, boosting local production, reducing import dependence, and enforcing fiscal discipline are essential to preserving the value of wages. Without these structural changes, any salary increase will offer only temporary relief. Casualisation is another major challenge confronting Nigerian workers. Across sectors such as banking, telecommunications, manufacturing, media, and oil and gas, many employees are hired on contract terms with little or no job security. These workers often perform the same duties as permanent staff but receive lower pay and are excluded from pensions, healthcare, housing benefits, and career development opportunities.

Some remain in this uncertain status for years.This practice is unjust and harmful to national development. Workers who feel insecure and undervalued are less motivated and less productive. Although labour unions have consistently condemned casualisation, the persistence of the practice reveals weaknesses in Nigeria’s labour laws. Loopholes in the existing legal framework allow employers to evade responsibilities and discourage union participation. The National Assembly should urgently amend outdated labour legislation to close these gaps and strengthen worker protections. The Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment must also intensify oversight and enforcement. Clear regulations should ensure that no employee remains on temporary status beyond six months without consideration for permanent appointment.

Beyond wages and job security, improving workers’ welfare requires stronger public services. Affordable healthcare, quality education, reliable transportation, and social protection programmes can significantly reduce financial pressure on households. Formalising the informal sector is equally important. Millions of Nigerians work outside the formal economy without legal protections or access to pensions and health insurance. Bringing them into the formal system will improve their welfare and expand the country’s economic base. Investment in human capital is also essential. As technology continues to reshape the global economy, Nigerian workers must acquire the skills needed to remain competitive. Greater commitment to vocational training, digital literacy, and lifelong learning will help prepare workers for emerging opportunities.

Ultimately, improving workers’ welfare demands a coordinated effort involving government, employers, labour unions, and civil society. Workers’ Day should not be reduced to a symbolic annual event filled with speeches and applause. It should serve as a call to action and a reminder that the strength of any nation rests on the wellbeing of its workforce. If Nigeria is serious about achieving sustainable development, workers must be placed at the centre of public policy. Addressing insecurity, stabilising the economy, reforming labour laws, and investing in human capital are not optional—they are fundamental. Nigerian workers have shown extraordinary resilience despite years of hardship. What they need now is not more rhetoric, but purposeful leadership and concrete action that restores dignity to labour and gives real meaning to the annual celebration of Workers’ Day

Calista Ezeaku

Opinion

Curbing Youth Unemployment In Nigeria

Published

2 months ago

March 30, 2026

The Tide

Quote: “A nation that fails to empower its youth risks mortgaging its future.”

Youth, generally defined as individuals between the ages of 15 and 35, represent a critical phase of human development—a transition from adolescence to adulthood marked by ambition, energy, and the pursuit of purpose. In Nigeria, this demographic constitutes a significant proportion of the population, making it one of the country’s greatest assets. However, this strength is increasingly undermined by a persistent and troubling challenge: youth unemployment.

Unemployment, the condition of being without gainful employment despite the willingness and ability to work, remains a major global concern. In Nigeria, however, it has reached alarming levels, particularly among young people. With estimates suggesting that a substantial percentage of Nigerian youth are either unemployed or underemployed, the consequences have become deeply embedded in the nation’s social and economic fabric.

The impact of youth unemployment is both widespread and severe. Economically, it leads to increased poverty levels and reduced productivity. Socially, it fuels frustration, hopelessness, and disillusionment among young people. This often manifests in rising rates of crime, cyber fraud, substance abuse, and involvement in political violence. When young people are unable to find legitimate means of livelihood, they may become vulnerable to negative influences, posing a threat not only to themselves but to society at large.

One of the primary drivers of youth unemployment in Nigeria is the inadequacy of the educational system. While many young Nigerians graduate from tertiary institutions each year, a significant number lack the practical and technical skills required in today’s job market. The disconnect between academic curricula and industry demands leaves graduates ill-prepared for employment, thereby widening the gap between education and employability.

Furthermore, Nigeria’s heavy dependence on the oil sector has contributed significantly to the unemployment crisis. Over the years, this reliance has led to the neglect of other critical sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology—sectors that have the potential to generate large-scale employment. The failure to diversify the economy has limited job opportunities and stifled innovation, leaving many young people without viable career paths.

In addition, rapid population growth continues to put immense pressure on the labor market. Each year, thousands of graduates enter the workforce, but the number of available jobs remains insufficient to absorb them. This imbalance creates intense competition for limited opportunities, leaving many qualified individuals unemployed for extended periods.

Access to finance also remains a major barrier for young Nigerians who wish to venture into entrepreneurship. Despite the creativity and entrepreneurial spirit that many youths possess, the lack of access to credit facilities, mentorship, and business support systems makes it difficult for them to establish and sustain their own enterprises. This challenge is further compounded by infrastructural deficits, such as unreliable power supply and limited access to technology.

Security challenges across various parts of the country have also worsened the situation. In some regions, economic hardship and lack of opportunities have made young people susceptible to recruitment into violent or extremist activities. This not only exacerbates insecurity but also diverts the energy of the youth away from productive engagement.

Addressing youth unemployment in Nigeria requires a comprehensive and collaborative approach. The government must take the lead by implementing policies that promote economic diversification, particularly by investing in agriculture, manufacturing, and the digital economy. These sectors hold immense potential for job creation and can absorb a large portion of the unemployed youth population.

Equally important is the reform of the educational system to emphasize skill acquisition, vocational training, and entrepreneurship. Schools and institutions must align their curricula with market needs, ensuring that graduates are equipped with relevant and practical skills. Public-private partnerships can play a vital role in facilitating internships, apprenticeships, and job placement programs.

The private sector also has a crucial role to play in driving job creation and innovation. By investing in youth-focused initiatives and supporting startups, businesses can help unlock the potential of young Nigerians. Additionally, financial institutions should develop more accessible and youth-friendly credit schemes to support small and medium-sized enterprises.

On an individual level, young people must embrace self-development, adaptability, and continuous learning. In an increasingly competitive and evolving global economy, acquiring digital skills, engaging in vocational training, and exploring entrepreneurial opportunities can significantly improve employability.

In conclusion, youth unemployment remains one of the most pressing challenges facing Nigeria today. However, it is not an insurmountable problem. With deliberate policies, strategic investments, and collective action from government, the private sector, and individuals, Nigeria can transform its youth population into a powerful engine of growth and development. By empowering young people with opportunities, skills, and resources, the nation can secure a more prosperous and stable future.

IVARA Favour Isaac is a student of Pan-African Institute of Management and Technology.

By: Ivara Favour Isaac