Opinion
Bleak Human Development Index?
It is pathetic and emotionally devastating to notice that Nigeria is the fourth most indebted nation in the world. A profile of the 10 most indebted countries on the borrowers list of the International Development Association (IDA), released by the World Bank Fiscal Year 2022 audited financial statements for the IDA as at the end of June 2022 reveals that Nigeria has a 13 billion dollar International Development Association debt stock.
According to the statement, Nigeria was ranked fifth in the World Bank Fiscal Year 2021 audited financial statements known as the IDA financial statement, with 11.7 billion dollars IDA debt stock as at June 30, 2021. Sadly, the report further reveals that Nigeria’s debt profile increased significantly like a Phoenix last year by 1.3 billion dollar. And that the IDA debt profile is different from the outstanding loan facility of 486million dollars Nigeria accessed from the World Bank International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Applying the rudiments of elementary Mathematics, the cumulative debt profile of Nigeria, the self-acclaimed giant of Africa to the World Bank and its agencies is Thirteen Billion, Four hundred and Eighty-Six Million Dollars (13,. 486 billion dollars). This will translate to about Nine Trillion, Five Hundred and Seventy-Five billion and Sixty Million Naira when exchanged to Nigeria’s currency. That is quite a whopping amount which is far above the total budget of Nigeria in the last three years. This figure is also apart from loans obtained from China and other Domestic debts Nigeria has incurred. Economic analysts have blamed the rising debt profile on non-budget performance status of the country. They posit that a nation that imports with nothing to export will inevitably suffer deficit, or financial and currency crisis. This untoward development explains the depreciation of the value of the Naira with a downward spiral inflationary trend that ravages Nigeria.
A borrowing nation remains a slave economically to the creditor-nation. The rising debt profile of Nigeria as revealed by the World Bank is a strong and infallible pointer to another debt crisis that Nigeria is into barely six years she wriggled herself out of that 1996 economic quagmire. Even with an increasing annual budget, the challenge has always been the debt service to revenue which has assumed an alarming dimension, eliciting questions if the country is bankrupt or at the verge of bankruptcy. According to reports, in 2020, to service domestic debt, Nigeria spent about N1.7 trillion as against a budget of N1.87 trillion. For Foreign debts, about N553 billion was spent against a proposed budget of N805.45 billion. The rising debt profile of the country violates a new milestone with the country’s debt service as a percentage of revenue rising to 83 percent in 2020. This means that 83 percent of the revenue generated was used to service debt. Nigeria is currently ranked the highest among Sub-Saharan Africa heavily indebted countries. The situation is made worse with a stunted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, retarded export growth rate, a fast dwindling per capita income and an increasing poverty level exacerbated by gross unemployment.
Government spending is a function of income. Government articulates her expected income and expenditure on yearly basis in a budget. Sometimes, the expected expenditure exceeds the expected income, this leads to budget deficit. The shortfall in finance is in most cases financed through borrowing with attendant cost and associated terms and conditions relating to payment patterns at maturity. Consequently, Nigeria is caught in the web of hasty and distress borrowing which she has not been able to service in full over the years.It is sad to state that despite revenue shortfalls, the recurrent expenditure remains all-time high while the needed capital projects suffer. It is speculated that some of the domestic and foreign loans accessed are misappropriated or outrightly embezzled with impunity through white elephant projects and funding of ponzi scheme and projects that have no economic and social value to the people. It is also not far from the truth that public money are wasted on inordinate political ambition and frivolous activities to curry favour to the detriment of the economy and the people. The startling disclosure of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Poverty and Inequality in Nigeria reports that about 44 percent of about 200 million population or about 88 million people in Nigeria live below the country’s poverty line.
This is emotionally devastating. Recall that in 2005 the Paris Club granted indebted nations debt relief which was informed by the need to free up resources for investment and foster faster economic growth. This led to a significant decline in the country’s debt burden in 2016. Unfortunately 16 years after the respite, the debt profile of Nigeria is in the doldrums. The past and present Federal Governments led by President Muhammadu Buhari have been accumulating debt at an alarming rate through obnoxious domestic and foreign borrowing, while debt servicing cost has again increased astronomically. The economy is therefore overburdened with massive government debt and debt servicing costs that consume a very large chunk of scare revenue. To get out of this mess government at all levels should limit borrowing to service critical economic and social infrastructure. Loans should not be obtained for frivolous and selfish purposes. The people’s representatives at the National Assembly, State Houses of Assembly and Local Government Legislatures should not be hoodwinked in approving loan facility to Federal, States and Local Governments. They should critically examine the purpose of the loan request vis-a-vis the benefits accruable to the people before approval should be granted.
Without sounding pessimistic, the economic future and human development index of Nigeria is precarious and bleak, except intentional measures are put in place to check incessant borrowing syndrome. It may take a century of no borrowing to offset the nation’s domestic and foreign debt, going by the borrowing sprees of the Federal Government which in less than one year has borrowed 1.3 billion dollar. God help Nigeria.
By: Igbiki Benibo
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