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Americans Elect President, ’Morrow
Tomorrow, the first Tuesday of November, 2016, eligible American voters across all the 50 states, including Washington, D.C., Alaska, and other small island territories, will troop out to vote for their next president.
Although over the last couple of weeks, more than 40 million Americans in 38 states have already cast their ballots in early voting. To win the race for the White House, a candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes.
Polls after polls have shown the Democratic Party Presidential candidate, Hillary R. Clinton ahead of her Republican rival, Donald J. Trump, although the polls have been tightening in recent days, no thanks to the FBI Director, James Comey’s announcement of relaunch of investigation into the Democratic nominee’s private email server penultimate Friday.
As at Saturday, while Clinton was estimated to hold 268 Electoral College votes, dropping 2 votes from 204, Trump was struggling with 168. Some eight toss-up states could swing victory for the candidates.
About 80million more votes are likely between today and end of voting on Tuesday. The dark cloud cast on Clinton’s chances by the comey letter to Congress was rested yesterday, nine days after the firestorm. The FBI stands by its July conclusions, essentially exonerating Clinton.
Over the last few days of the race, Trump has travelled all over the country, from Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and even Minnesota, a mostly blue state.
It’s an impressive travel schedule, but it may reflect the biggest challenge facing him right now: It’s still not clear exactly where and how he would win.
Hillary Clinton has a consistent and clear advantage in states worth at least 270 electoral votes, even if the race has undoubtedly tightened over the last few weeks. But even that understates the challenge facing Trump’s campaign: It’s not at all obvious where he has his best chance of breaking through, making it harder for him to concentrate his efforts over the last days of the campaign.
This is not to say that Trump can’t win. The polls could be off across the board.
But even if he wins Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Utah, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire, he’s still short of a victory.
He’s not assured to win any of those states, to be clear — although he’s a clear favourite in Iowa and Utah at this point. He has trailed in more live interview polls of North Carolina and Florida than he has led, although the national race has tightened since many were taken.
But he would still need to win one of the following states: Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, or perhaps New Mexico or Minnesota.
Of all of these states, the only one where Trump has really been close in the polls is Nevada.
But Nevada is also the state where we know the most about the results because of early voting, and it hasn’t brought good news for Trump.
Even so, he’ll still need to win one of these blue states to win the presidency.
Democrats have largely replicated the turnout from 2012 (when President Barack Obama ultimately won the state by about seven points), thanks in no small part to a strong turnout among Hispanic voters.
This might seem difficult to reconcile with the polling, but Nevada is a state where pollsters have underestimated Democrats in the past. One theory is that the polls are not very good at capturing the most Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters. And indeed, the polls showing Trump ahead in the state have shown a smaller lead for Clinton among non-white voters than seems plausible, particularly given his rhetoric against Hispanic immigrants.
Perhaps, Trump will mount a huge comeback in Nevada on Election Day. Or maybe Democrats are much weaker among registered Democrats or unaffiliated voters than most analysts believe.
But if Clinton does indeed have a big advantage in Nevada, then his chances start looking very bleak: He’s at a disadvantage in the polls of all of the other states that could put him over the top.
What’s more, it’s not really clear where he has his best chance — something reflected in Trump’s unfocused pre-election push.
Pennsylvania seemed like Trump’s best option earlier in the year, but he hasn’t led a live interview poll there since the summer. The final non-partisan live interview polls there show Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin of four to six points. The state will probably be close, but it’s quite clear that she has the edge.
Wisconsin is another state that seemed as if it could be promising for Trump. It has a large population of white working-class Democrats, just as Iowa does, and Trump is running well in Iowa. But he has struggled among Republican-leaning voters in the Milwaukee suburbs.
The race could tighten if these voters return to his side, but he hasn’t led a live interview poll there all year.
Michigan could be a more interesting option for Trump. It was the most Democratic of all of these states in the 2012 election, and he hasn’t led a poll there all year either. But recent polls have shown a relatively tight race there.
Clinton visited the state on Friday, and President Obama was there yesterday and is visiting today, and Clinton will make another stop on Monday, so clearly, the Clinton campaign thinks there’s some softness there. That said, if the election comes down to whether Trump can score an upset in Michigan, he’s in a lot of trouble. It seems hard to imagine he could carry the state without also carrying Pennsylvania.
Colorado is a notch tougher than any of those states. The demographics and polling are both tough for Trump. It has one of the best-educated populations in the country, along with a large Hispanic population.
There was one recent poll that showed a tied race in Colorado, but most have shown Clinton with a lead. Like Nevada, Colorado is also a state where the Democrats have outperformed their final poll numbers in every presidential election since 2004. The early vote numbers are strong for the Democrats there as well.
Virginia is like Colorado: Neither polls nor demographics seem promising for Trump. Ultimately, the fact that the race is close in North Carolina is a very strong indicator that Clinton has a big lead in Virginia. Early voting results show Clinton in the lead in North Carolina, which Trump needs to win.
Then there are states like Minnesota and New Mexico. The polls have not shown an especially tight race, and Clinton is not campaigning or airing advertisements there. Trump’s team has held out some hope of winning, but these states seem especially unlikely to decide the election.
Again, the polls are close enough that the possibility of a victory for Trump is still quite real. But it’s just not clear exactly how or where he would break through. It doesn’t seem that the Trump campaign knows either.
But for the Clinton campaign, a close-out rally in Philadelphia, the most populous district in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, is the best way to prepare for a victory party late Tuesday.
News
NPF Warn Applicants Ahead Of Constable Recruitment Exam
The Katsina State Police Command has cautioned applicants for the upcoming police constable recruitment examination to adhere strictly to laid-down procedures and avoid falling victim to fraudsters.
The Commissioner of Police, Ali Umar-Fage, issued the warning in a statement released on Sunday by the command’s spokesperson, Abubakar Sadiq-Aliyu.
He disclosed that the nationwide examination is scheduled to take place from April 28 to April 30 in Katsina State and that the exercise will be conducted at Hassan Usman Katsina Polytechnic along Dutsin-Ma Road.
According to the commissioner, only candidates who successfully passed the recently concluded physical and credential screening will be eligible to sit for the examination.
Applicants have been directed to log on to the official recruitment portal from April 24 to print their coloured examination invitation slips, which contain details of their specific date, time, and venue.
Mr Umar-Fage stated that candidates must present a valid National Identification Number (NIN) slip issued by the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), bearing a clear photograph, alongside their printed coloured invitation slip and a writing pen at the examination centre.
He added that the approved dress code for the exercise is a white T-shirt, white shorts, and white canvas shoes.
Reiterating that the recruitment process is entirely free of charge, the police chief warned applicants to be wary of individuals or groups seeking to extort money under the guise of facilitating recruitment.
News
Monarch Pledges Strong Action Against Gender-Based Violence
The Rivers State Traditional Rulers Council has pledged to take decisive action to curb the rising cases of gender-based violence (GBV) across the state, in partnership with ActionAid and other relevant organisations.
The commitment was made during an event organised by ActionAid in collaboration with the Rivers State Ministry of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation in Port Harcourt. The programme, titled “Convening of Traditional Rulers for GBV Prevention,” carried the theme, “From Custodians to Champions: Redefining Culture for GBV Prevention and Community Protection.”
Speaking on behalf of the council, the Okilomuibe of Engenni Kingdom, HRM King Moore MacLean Ubuo, said traditional rulers are determined to move beyond mere responses to incidents of violence by adopting proactive strategies.
“We will establish and empower community-led structures, including traditional cabinets and women leaders, to identify early warning signs of violence and intervene before harm occurs,” he said.
King Ubuo added that traditional institutions are committed to enforcing the Violence Against Persons Prohibition (VAPP) Law within their domains, stressing that the longstanding culture of silence surrounding abuse would no longer be tolerated.
“We will ensure that our subjects understand their rights and that the law is respected as the ultimate standard for justice,” he added.
Also speaking, the Rivers State Government emphasised that tackling GBV requires more than policies and enforcement, noting that a transformation in societal attitudes is essential.
Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation, Mrs. Lauretta Dimkpa, who was represented by the Director of Child Welfare, Mrs. Fumilayo Adebayo, highlighted the critical role of traditional rulers in shaping societal values.
“As traditional rulers, your voices command respect, your decisions influence behaviour, and your institutions are trusted platforms for conflict resolution and social guidance,” she said.
She urged them to promote cultural norms that uphold dignity, respect, and equality, while also encouraging victims to report abuse without fear of stigma.
In his remarks, the Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, Dr. Andrew Mamedu, described the gathering as timely, noting that GBV remains a widespread violation of human rights and a major obstacle to sustainable development.
Represented by Dr. Adedeji Ademefun, he cited data showing that 31 per cent of Nigerian women aged 15 to 49 have experienced physical violence, with many cases going unreported due to fear, stigma, and cultural silence.
“National surveys indicate that nearly three in ten women have experienced physical or sexual violence, underscoring the scale and urgency of this crisis,” he said.
Earlier, the Coordinator of the Rivers State Multi-Stakeholders Action Committee, Barrister Evelyn Asimie Membere, described GBV as one of the most persistent human rights violations, cutting across age, class, and geography.
According to her, traditional rulers are uniquely positioned to influence behaviour and drive meaningful change at the grassroots level.
“In many of our communities, your voice carries more weight than any policy or legislation,” she said.
The event brought together key stakeholders committed to strengthening community-based approaches to preventing GBV and protecting vulnerable groups across Rivers State.
News
Tinubu Support Group Canvasses Second Term For President Ahead Of 2027
A socio-political group, the Tinubu Youths Vanguard Organisation (TYVO), Rivers State chapter, has called on Nigerians to support the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027, citing the need to consolidate ongoing economic and infrastructural reforms.
The State Coordinator of the group, Hon. Emmanuel Fubara, made the appeal over the weekend in Port Harcourt on the sidelines of a meeting of the Southern Traditional Rulers Council.
He said granting the Tinubu administration a second term would enable it to fully implement its transformation agenda, particularly under the Renewed Hope initiative.
“It is important that the Tinubu administration is given another opportunity to complete its economic and developmental programmes for the benefit of the country,” he stated.
Fubara disclosed that the group is preparing for its formal inauguration in the State, along with the unveiling of its local government, ward and unit structures, including student and market women wings.
According to him, the organization will be fully mobilised to promote the policies and achievements of the current administration, with a focus on issue-based campaigns aimed at restoring public confidence in the nation’s economy.
He noted that the administration has made strides in revamping the economy and executing key infrastructure projects, including the ongoing coastal road development in parts of the country.
Fubara expressed confidence that the group’s campaign strategies would resonate with Nigerians, adding that opposition voices would be effectively countered through sustained grassroots engagement.
He also urged members of the group to intensify sensitisation efforts across communities, highlighting what he described as visible results of the administration’s reforms.
On security challenges facing the country, Fubara said the situation was inherited from previous administrations but maintained that the current government is taking decisive steps to address it.
He expressed optimism that ongoing efforts, including international collaborations, would significantly curb insecurity in the near future.
When asked whether the group would also campaign for Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, the TYVO coordinator said the organisation would take a position at the appropriate time, noting that directives from the All Progressives Congress (APC) would guide its activities.
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