Opinion
Before We Become Extinct
The problem that has befallen the Niger Delta region could be traced to the amalgamation of the Southern and Northern Protectorates in 1914 by Sir Frederick Lord Lugard. This process gave birth to what today is known as Nigeria which originated from the word “Niger” founded during the exploration of the early sailors along the coastal territory.
After the amalgamation, the north and the south had economic independence with both sides depending upon agriculture for sustenance. The Niger Delta became economically relevant when oil was struck there in 1956. By this time, Nigeria was yet to be an independent state. But in 1960, the nation became independent. And in 1963, she became a republic and began to compete with other independent nations. After independence, however, the pre-independent close links that existed between the British colonists and the north made it possible for the north to dominate the administration and politics of post-independent Nigeria while the southerners only occupied menial positions.
Knowing full well that the south had more educated people than the north, and that if given opportunity, the south would emasculate the north, the northerners held tenaciously to the heritage bequeathed to them by the British. The stronghold on power by the north became tensed when oil became the mainstay of the nation’s economy. It therefore became difficult or near impossible for power to shift to any other section of the country other than the north; and so the north dominated power for a very long time.
Right from independence, the north had kept power. In 1960 when we attained nationhood, Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa Balewa was Prime Minister till 1966 when the first military coup took place. The coup enthroned Gen. Aguiyi-Ironsi as Head of State for only six months. He was subsequently over-thrown and Gen. Yakubu Gowon became head of state for nine years. Since then, with the exception of Chief Ernest Shonekan, the three-month Head of State, who was installed by Gen Ibrahim Babangida under an interim arrangement, the north ruled till 1999.
In a bid to control the oil which is the mainstay of Nigeria’s economy, leadership in the country has become a thing of “fight, kill and take”. In Nigeria, leadership is not pursued for its sake, but for the amassing of wealth.
And so the Niger Deltans were usurped, and their rights and privileges lost including their right to control their resources. The deprivation suffered by the Niger Delta has resulted in several agitations for equity to prevail in the control and sharing of the oil proceeds in the nation. This agitation has now turned violent as youths from the region often take up arms against the federal government.
It is, however, unfortunate that rather than pool our resources together and embark on a diplomatic and united fight for our due as was done by our fathers who started the struggle, we are rather kidnapping, killing and maiming our own sons and daughters. The Bible says “a house that is divided against itself will not stand”. If this is so, then fighting against ourselves would not produce the desired result.
According to Chinua Achebe in his novel “Things Fall Apart”, the white man had put a knife on the rope that held Umuofia together and they cannot act in singleness of purpose. Since the whiteman concentrated power in the hands of the north and walked away, things have always been falling apart in the rest of the country and the centre cannot hold.
The carnage that goes on unabated in the Niger Delta is nothing but internal terrorism? Do we have to destroy ourselves when we out to fight courageously and gallantly for our rights? We are a deprived people who should be united and fight for a common goal. Inward fighting, kidnapping and killing will further take us away from achieving this goal.
That is why it is incumbent upon all the militants in the Niger Delta to respond and take advantage of the amnesty granted them by the Federal Government by surrounding their arms and ammunitions. Let us be wise and deploy our efforts towards things that will benefit us as well as develop us, before we become extinct in the name of a Niger Delta struggle.
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo