There are indications
that the Federal Government may ban the importation of palm oil due to the reduction in crude oil price that is affecting the country.
This was made known by Guaranty Trust Bank PLC (GT Bank) in its 2015 macro-economic outlook that was made available to Journalists in Lagos, recently.
According to the paper, as the price of oil is expected to fall till mid-2015, it expected forex supply to suffer a significant decline, which will include some of the agricultural items like palm oil, rubber and groundnut among others.
In the first two quarters of  2014, Nigeria recorded year-on-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rates above six per cent in the midst of decling worldwide growth trends, and that oil revenue currently accounts for more than 75 per cent of government’s revenue and close to 90 per cent of foreign exchange income,” it stated.
According to the statement, the trend continued in the third quarters as Nigeria recorded year-on-year GDP growth of 6.23 per cent driven by non oil sector which grew by 7.5 per cent, adding, “Inspite of governments efforts to diversify the economy and to reduce demand for forex, we do not see this taking effect in the short-term. We are however, confident in the Central Bank’s ability to hold the current official exchange rate steady, for oil prices above $55 per barrel.
“In addition to previous import substitution initiatives restricting the importation of fertilizers, sugar, cement and other items, the Federal Government in 2014 placed restriction on the importation of certain classes of vehicles and automobiles spare parts through increased tariffs and levies”.
“The Federal Government expects that the policy would create jobs, reduce the dependence on imported vehicles, thereby reducing the demand for forex for the purpose of vehicle ownership. Faced with dwindling oil revenue, we expect the Federal Government to ramp up efforts in this regard”, the paper further stated, adding that “Given the international variable contributing to the weakened state of oil prices and OPEC’s intent to maintain current supply, even if prices go to as low as $20 per barrel, we do not expect a reversal in the direction of oil prices in the first half of 2015″.
The report also noted that in 2014, declining oil prices had set the base for monetary policies of the country to be very tight, stressing that the combined effect of the declining oil prices, gradual capital flight, a reduction in forex supply and the import dependent nature of the economy of the country could lead to sustained pressure of the naira, which could further force the government to take another action.