Oil & Energy

Hedge Funds Turn Bearish On Oil, Bullish On Natural Gas

Published

11 months ago

March 17, 2025

Traders have not been this bearish on oil in months or so bullish on United States natural gas in years.
The latest data on money managers’ positioning in the WTI and Brent crude and U.S. natural gas futures showed two contrasting trends—speculators are betting that oil prices would remain low or go even lower while increasing the bets that natural gas prices would continue marching higher.
So far this year, geopolitical and supply and demand factors have been increasingly bearish for the oil price outlook and increasingly bullish for natural gas prices.
In the oil market, hedge funds and other portfolio managers have been slashing their bullish bets since the end of January, when the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil trade were the primary bullish driver of managed money to bet on a tightening market.
With U.S. President, Donald Trump, now in office, the sentiment has quickly soured amid the president’s insistence on lower oil prices, his efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine, and – most of all – the enormous uncertainty about on-and-off tariffs and tariff threats and their potential impact on the American economy.
As a result, market participants are preparing for lower oil prices, even amid expectations of declining oil supply from Iran and Venezuela due to President Trump’s hawkish policy toward these OPEC producers.
Speaking of OPEC, the wider OPEC+ group has just said it would begin increasing supply as of April, adding further downward pressure on prices.
Faced with all these bearish drivers, money managers have been reducing their bullish bets on crude oil futures, with the U.S. WTI Crude hitting the lowest net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – in 15 years at the end of February.
In the week to March 4, the latest reporting week with data released on March 7, speculators bought WTI amid a major selloff in all other commodities except for U.S. natural gas.
The net long in WTI rebounded from the 15-year low, but it wasn’t because the market suddenly started betting on higher prices going forward. The rise in WTI buying and the net long was the result of short covering in the U.S. crude futures contract.
In Brent, hedge funds cut their bullish-only bets in the week to March 4 for the biggest decline in longs since July 2024.
Unlike in crude oil, money managers have become increasingly bullish on U.S. natural gas after inventories dipped this winter to below the five-year average as demand surged in the coldest winter for six years.
The net long in natural gas further swelled in the week to March 4, as the number of new bullish bets was four times higher than the new short positions.
“Natural gas continues to benefit from rising demand, both domestically in the US and towards exports via LNG,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said, commenting on the latest Commitment of Traders report.
At the start of the winter heating season in November, U.S. natural gas inventories were higher than average for the time of the year as America entered the season with stocks at their highest level since 2016.
These stocks, however, were quickly depleted during the coldest winter for six years, with demand for space heating and power generation soaring. A month before the end of the winter heating season, U.S. natural gas inventories have now slumped to below the five-year average and well below the levels from the same time in 2024, at the end of a mild winter.
The lower inventories and the higher demand – both for domestic consumption and LNG exports – have pushed prices higher, encouraging producers to boost gas output this year. Traders bet that prices will go even higher as demand from LNG plants is set to accelerate with the ramp-up of new U.S. export plants.
Paraskova writes for Oilprice.com.

By: Tsvetana Paraskova

Oil & Energy

Take Concrete Action To Boost Oil Production, FG Tells IOCs

Published

5 days ago

February 9, 2026

The Tide

The Federal Government has called on urged International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in Nigeria to take concrete steps to ramp up crude oil production, following the country’s ambitious target of reaching 2.5 million barrels per day by 2027.

Speaking at the close of a panel session at the just concluded 2026 Nigerian International Energy Summit, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, said the government had created an enabling environment for oil companies to operate effectively.

Lokpobiri stressed that the performance of the petroleum industry is fundamentally tied to the success of upstream operators, noting that the Nigerian economy remains largely dependent on foreign exchange earnings from the sector.

According to him, “I have always maintained that the success of the oil and gas industry is largely dependent on the success of the upstream. From upstream to midstream and downstream, everything is connected. If we do not produce crude oil, there will be nothing to refine and nothing to distribute. Therefore, the success of the petroleum sector begins with the success of the upstream.

“I am also happy with the team I have had the privilege to work with, a community of committed professionals. From the government’s standpoint, it is important to state clearly that there is no discrimination between indigenous producers and other operators.

“You are all companies operating in the same Nigerian space, under the same law. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) does not differentiate between local and foreign companies. While you may operate at different scales, you are governed by the same regulations. Our expectation, therefore, is that we will continue to work together, collaborate, and strengthen the upstream sector for the benefit of all Nigerians.”

The minister pledged the federal government’s continued efforts to sustain its support for the industry through reforms, tax incentives and regulatory adjustments aimed at unlocking the sector’s full potential.

“We have provided extensive incentives to unlock the sector’s potential through reforms, tax reliefs and regulatory changes. The question now is: what will you do in return? The government has given a lot.

Now is the time for industry players to reciprocate by investing, producing and delivering results,” he said.

Lokpobiri added that Nigeria’s success in the upstream sector would have positive spillover effects across Africa, while failure would negatively impact the continent’s midstream and downstream segments.

“We have talked enough. This is the time to take concrete actions that will deliver measurable results and transform this industry,” he stated.

It would be noted that Nigeria’s daily average oil production stood at about 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, a significant shortfall from the budget benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day.

Oil & Energy

Host Comm.Development: NUPRC Commits To Enforce PIA 2021

Published

5 days ago

February 9, 2026

The Tide

The Chief Executive of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has restated the commission’s commitment to ensuring oil companies comply with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 to promote sustainable development in host communities.

Eyesan made the remark at a Sensitization Programme in Owerri, Imo State, explained that the PIA 2021 mandates oil companies to contribute 3% of their annual operating costs to Host Communities Development Trusts (HCDTs) for community development projects.

Represented by Atama Daniel, Eyeso said “The funds will be used for education, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic empowerment”.

Eyesan assured that the commission would facilitate a smooth implementation process and ensure compliance by oil companies.

She, however, urged oil-producing communities to protect oil facilities in their areas as well as stop all illegal oil exploration activities within their communities.

The chief executive also disclosed that NUPRC has established Alternative Dispute Resolution Centres to resolve disputes between oil companies and host communities.

Earlier, the National President, HOSTCOM, Dr. Benjamin Tamarenebi, advised the host communities to always embark on sustainable development projects rather than frivolous projects.

He warned traditional rulers against bidding for contracts for execution of projects approved for their communities in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.”

Tamarenebi noted that monarchs, as heads of Host Communities Board of Trustees, have the responsibility of supervising the awarding and execution of projects approved for the communities and ensuring accountability, adding that awarding contracts to themselves will lead to compromise.

He disclosed that funds disbursed to the communities are now higher than before and urged the communities to take good advantage of it.

“They can build schools and other sustainable projects and think of something that will always be a more economical variable in the community; if this is done there would be economic activities and development. In order not to waste the funds, manpower, train your children with the funds, give them scholarships instead of buying vehicles or renting apartments in the city”, he said.

In his remarks, the Deputy Executive Director, Environmental Defenders Network (EDEN), Johnson Abiye, urged regulators to ensure smooth implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act as it relates to the oil producing communities.

Abiye noted that many communities that were supposed to be part of HOSTCOM were omitted and called for the situation to be redressed.

Oil & Energy

PETROAN Cautions On Risks Of P’Harcourt Refinery Shutdown

Published

5 days ago

February 9, 2026

The Tide

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association (PETROAN) has expressed fears of rust, corrosion, abandonment, lack of lubrication, and eventual destruction of installed equipment at the PortHarcourt Refinery due to continued Shutdown.

PETROAN said it would also result in rendering the entire revamp effort futile if urgent action is not taken.

The Public Relations Officer and Spokesperson of the Association, Dr. Joseph Obele, in a statement, noted that over $1.5 billion of public funds were reportedly expended on the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refinery, which was reopened in November 2024 and shut down again in May 2025 due to alleged financial losses.

Speaking on the sidelines of the recent remarks credited to the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Engr. Bayo Ojulari, in which he described the re-operationalisation of the Port Harcourt Refinery and Petrochemical Company as a ‘waste of resources’ and admitted that NNPC lacks the capacity to operate refineries profitably, Obele expressed disappointment, describing the statement as troubling, demoralising, and deeply disturbing, and raising fundamental questions about institutional responsibility, governance, and the stewardship of public resources.

With the huge funds already spent on the rehabilitation process, Obele stated

therefore, that for the GCEO of NNPC to dismiss the entire exercise as a waste of resources, without clear attribution of responsibility, performance audits, or accountability measures, is unacceptable to Nigerians.

“If NNPC truly lacks the capacity to run refineries profitably, as admitted by its own GCEO, then Nigerians deserve to know who advised the investment, who supervised the rehabilitation, who certified the restart, and who benefited from the contracts and operations.

“Public institutions cannot casually dismiss a multi-billion-dollar national asset as a mistake without consequences”, he said.

The PETROAN spokesperson also faulted the narrative by Ojulari that Nigerians should be “thankful” solely because of the success of the Dangote Refinery.

While acknowledging the strategic importance and commendable achievement of the privately owned refinery, he stressed that private investments cannot replace the constitutional and economic obligation of government to efficiently manage public assets.

“Dangote Refinery is a private investment driven by profit and efficiency. NNPC, on the other hand, holds national assets in trust for Nigerians. One cannot be used as an excuse for the failure of the other,” Dr. Obele emphasized.

The energy expert further warned that repeated public admissions of incompetence by NNPC leadership risk eroding investor confidence, weakening Nigeria’s energy security framework, and undermining years of policy efforts aimed at domestic refining, price stability, and job creation.

He described as most worrisome the assertion that there is no urgency to restart the Port Harcourt Refinery because the Dangote Refinery is currently meeting Nigeria’s petroleum needs.

“Such a statement is annoying, unacceptable, and indicative of leadership that is not solution-centric,” he said.

The PETROAN National PRO reiterated that Nigeria cannot continue to normalise waste, institutional failure, and retrospective justification of poor decisions stressing that admitting failure is only meaningful when followed by accountability, reforms, and a clear, credible plan to prevent recurrence.

By: Lady Godknows Ogbulu