Opinion
Boko Haram’s Expansion And The Bleak Picture
The recent Abuja-Kaduna train attack has finally brought to a halt speculations regarding Boko-Haram’s expansion into the North-West territories of Nigeria. Although warnings sounded as far back as two-three years ago suggested such an active expansionist agenda, it was not until January 2022 that I saw what I consider to be the first official acknowledgement of the expansionist efforts.
This acknowledgement was contained in Kaduna State Ministry of Internal Security and the Home Affairs’ annual security report which included observations regarding the escalating relationship between Boko-Haram groups and bandits. .
Recall that Boko-Haram ceased to exist as a single entity since 2014/2015 when factionalism befell the central entity. This factionalism yielded three different groups distinguishable by certain ideological and tactical contrarieties. They are the Shekau-led Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad (JASLWJ), the Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) supported Jama’atu Ansaril Muslimina fi Biladis Sudan (Ansaru) and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). And they have been fighting one another for influence and jurisdiction ever since.
Interestingly, establishing an influential presence in North-Central and North-West Nigeria has always constituted a major aspect of these groups’ grand agenda. But for years, it had proven hard for this objective to be achieved by any of the groups even after staging several operations in the subregions, as none of them was able to establish the desired level of hegemonic presence and influence.
Last year, Nigeria’s terror network experienced heightened volatility due to the escalation of the conflagration between the two major terrorist organisations —the Shekau-led Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) and Al-Barnawi-led Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) — operating in the North-east and Lake-chad basin. This resulted in the death of Abubakar Shekau by suicide which sparked serious disarray within the network and rendered the JAS somewhat defenceless.
Consequently, ISWAP issued an ultimatum to all JAS commanders and fighters to either defect to ISWAP and pledge allegiance to Al-Barnawi or vacate all former JAS territories which now fell under their control. Some commanders and fighters complied and defected while many others surrendered to the Nigeria Army with the aim of becoming beneficiaries of the Nigerian government’s amnesty programme (Operation Safe Corridor).
A third group of JAS commanders and fighters who neither defected nor surrendered to the Nigerian army were thought to have migrated to the North-West to forge alliances with bandit groups. By implication, while Ansaru continues to remain the closest to Nortg-West bandits, ISWAP and former JAS fighters might have also re-ignited links with bandit groups. While ISWAP might have taken over control of the vast network of bandit groups that were formerly affiliated to Shekau-led JAS due to the carpet-crossing of JAS commanders (some of whom are the keepers of the link between JAS and the bandit gangs in the North-West just as Adamu Bitri) to the ISWAP side, JAS fighters that refused to surrender to both ISWAP and the Nigerian Army might however have also migrated to NW to forge alliances with bandits and escape ISWAP’s wrath.
Now, the changing dynamics, improved weaponry and renewed offensive tactics seen in recent attacks thought to be staged by bandits are testimonials to an improved alliance between bandits and members of Boko Haram groups. These attacks which carry Boko Haram signatures all over from attacks on public infrastructure(as in the case of the train attacks) to attacks on military formations(e.g NDA and the Birnin Gwari Army Forward Operational Base) and the efficient use of IEDs for offensives have increased in frequency in North West states.
The recent video tape that was released in the aftermath of the release of Bank of Agriculture’s MD also signals this unholy alliance. At this pace, North-West Nigeria is on the verge of becoming a more deadlier terror zone than the North-East ever was. This is because we are dealing with two groups with complementary terror/criminal expertise synergy which holds the potential for the establishment of the most sophisticated terror network Nigeria has ever seen.
The bandits indubitably boast of an unmatched knowledge of the local terrain and geography of the North-West’s forests and other ungoverned spaces while Boko Haram groups, be they Ansaru or ISWAP, boast of a very deadly extremist-ideological core with a sophisticated array of terror-based expertise and affiliation to global terror networks through Islamic State(IS) African subsidiaries(for ISWAP) and Al-Qaeeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) (for Ansaru) that allows them access to global terror resources and funding.
The bandits also have the numbers sourced from a rich population of child-soldiers. Their numerical preponderance, non-ideological-cum-uneducated nature and relatively young base make them extremely vulnerable to indoctrination and a suitable source for terror-manpower.
Sadly, the use of child-soldiers for terror activities is attributed to both ISWAP and Ansaru, but ISWAP has gone further to institutionalise child recruitment and indoctrination using international terror recruitment standards.
Hence, ISWAP might leverage this rich child-soldier manpower source opportunity more effectively. As I write this piece, I must confess to experiencing an overwhelming shockwave of fear since I discovered ISWAP’s new recruitment and indoctrination strategy through open source terror watch networks. And here is why: the largest bandit-manpower source is predominantly the forsaken, uncivilised and uneducated population of forest-based Fulani. Several testimonies from victims of kidnapping further affirms that the bandits are mostly young boys aged 14-18.
They have been adjudged to be tremendous in terms of population and now Boko Haram groups(ISWAP, ANSARU, fmr JAS) have infiltrated the vast bandit network due to the government’s avoidable mismanagement of the entire situation which metamorphosed from farmer-herder crisis. Unfortunately, the continued mismanagement of this crisis now holds the potential of further transfiguring into an implosive generation-long extremist insurgency.
ISWAP has instituted a new recruitment and indoctrination initiative. This initiative aimed at recruiting an army they term “The Empowerment Generation” focuses on training and indoctrinating children aged 8-16 as seen in a propaganda video released by the group. The implementation of this training and indoctrination exercise is done through the instrumentality of a well structured educational institution named “Khilafah Cadet School”. Cadets, otherwise called “Cubs of the Caliphate”, are drilled in extremist Islamic education; tactical military, arms and infantry training; and Jihad and enemy execution techniques. This school boasts of a well-structured curriculum consistent with global terror standards and a strict entry requirement as students have to pass an entrance exams before getting admitted. The school is well-funded and resourced. The most scary aspect of the video is the scene that shows the cadets practicing special force warfare tactics. In the scene, the cadets are shown entering a building in special force style to extract enemies. The enemies used for this drill were Nigerian soldiers captured by ISWAP. After the extraction, the three soldiers were made to kneel and they were all shot in the head by three different child-soldiers barely aged 15. The precision, the tact and the efficiency in execution are consistent with that which is usually seen in war movies.
The “Cubs of the Caliphate” are a product of a long-term strategy envisioned by ISWAP to continue the ideologically-driven war for another generation, serving as a formidable and inexhaustible manpower source for the terrorist army.
By: Abdulhaleem Ringim
Ringim wrote from Port Harcourt.
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Quote “Professor Kamene Okonjo
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Opinion
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Quote: An African who invokes
This is the concluding part
… Given the fact that I was
At the end of the visit by the
Back to my apartment, at abo
Under normal circumstances, yo
That all she asks is that Chie
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I believe that everyone in hu
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Opinion
FG’s Transport Support And Rivers Workers
The Federal Government’s approval of a N70,000 monthly transport intervention for public service workers for six months, beginning in November 2026, offers hope to employees struggling with the rising cost of living. The agreement with the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), reached at a conciliation meeting in Abuja on October 27, is intended to cushion transport costs and ease pressure on workers’ incomes. But for public servants in Rivers State, it raises a familiar question: will the State Government key into the intervention and ensure that its workers benefit? The agreement provides for N70,000 monthly across all levels, for six months. The Federal Government also approved peculiar allowance arrears effective from May 1, 2026, to be paid in three equal instalments beginning in November.
The parties agreed to reconvene after one month to assess implementation. Ultimately, the value of these resolutions will be measured not by announcements but by whether eligible workers receive the money. Transport costs consume a substantial share of many civil servants’ earnings before they can meet household needs. Support for commuting is therefore not a luxury or political favour; it is temporary assistance to help workers remain at their jobs without sinking further into hardship. For lower-paid employees, transport costs can turn modest salaries into a daily exercise in difficult choices and sacrifice.
The agreement also urges State and Local Governments to participate and unions to press for implementation. The federal agreement does not automatically guarantee that every State and Local Government employee will receive the support. State authorities must clarify how it will apply to their workforce, make the necessary arrangements and publish a payment timetable. Rivers State must approach the arrangement with urgency and transparency. The Government should State whether it will implement the intervention and when payments will begin. Any administrative or financial question should be addressed promptly with organised labour, not allowed to become excuses for delay.
The concern is sharpened by the earlier N35,000 monthly wage award introduced by the Federal Government in 2023 after petrol subsidy removal. It was intended as temporary relief pending a new national minimum wage. While several States negotiated and paid wage awards or related sums, implementation nationwide was uneven. Reports in 2024 indicated that many States had failed to pay the federal award, while others provided different amounts. In Rivers, labour and media reports raised concerns about implementation of the N35,000 award for State workers, amid separate announcements and arrangements concerning Local Government employees.
The wage award was meant to ease the immediate effects of subsidy removal, yet workers faced uncertainty over whether the promised relief would reach them. In February 2024, the Rivers State Government announced approval of the N35,000 award for local government workers, but subsequent reports showed that implementation across worker categories remained a concern. The lesson is clear: approval and implementation are not the same. A declaration at a meeting offers little comfort to a worker whose account does not reflect the promised payment. For workers who travel to their offices daily, the implications of delayed support are significant. Transportation expenses compete with food, rent, school fees, healthcare and other essential household needs.
As fares rise, employees may be forced to reduce spending on necessities or borrow to sustain their families. A timely transport intervention would therefore provide practical relief and demonstrate that government understands the economic pressures confronting its workforce. Its temporary nature makes prompt implementation even more important. It is fair to acknowledge that this transport intervention is a new agreement and that its administrative details may require clarification. Rivers State should not be condemned in advance for a failure that has not occurred. Nevertheless, the earlier experience gives workers legitimate grounds to seek assurances before the November commencement date. The State should avoid allowing uncertainty to persist until workers begin asking why the promised assistance has not arrived.
The NLC and unions in Rivers State should engage the State Government immediately and seek a written commitment, an implementation plan and a process for reporting missed payments. If clarification from the Federal Government is needed, the State should seek it without abandoning the goal of providing relief. Labour leaders must also keep members informed about progress and insist that any agreed arrangements are applied fairly and transparently. The Rivers State Government should treat this intervention as an opportunity to rebuild confidence. Timely support would show that workers’ welfare is more than a talking point and that the State recognises the economic realities confronting its employees.
Silence, delay or selective implementation, by contrast, would revive frustration over earlier relief measures and weaken trust between government and labour. Every month lost to administrative delay leaves workers facing the same transport burden without the intended assistance. The State should consult labour, publish arrangements and pay eligible workers on time. Rivers workers should not have to wonder whether federal relief will reach them. The Federal Government has announced the support; now the State must make its position clear. We hope the N70,000 monthly transport intervention will not follow the troubling path of the earlier wage award. Rivers State should learn from that experience and ensure that this time, relief is not merely promised but delivered.
Sylvia ThankGod-Amadi
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