Oil & Energy
Tight Now, Loose Later: Oil Futures Flash Warning
Last week, OPEC+ announced it will once again accelerate the pace of unwinding of production cuts, with output targets for June increasing by 411,000 barrels per day, equivalent to three monthly increments.
This follows a similar move in April, with the organization appearing willing to stay the course amid low oil prices and fears of weakening demand.
We reported that global crude inventories remain low enough, thus giving OPEC+ a window to scale back its voluntary cuts until the market surplus finally arrives.
Saudi Arabia appears intent on “punishing” OPEC+ rascals such as Kazakhstan and Iran for repeatedly violating their quotas.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that the latest OPEC survey of secondary sources reveals that Kazakhstan’s crude oil output clocked in at 1.852 mb/d in March, 384 kb/d above its OPEC+ quota.
Further, the country also failed to keep its promise to cut 38 kb/d in compensation for overproduction in March, bringing its total overproduction to 422 kb/d.
The same scenario is expected to unfold in the coming months. Kazakhstan produced 240 kb/d more y/y in March, a sharp contrast from the other eight OPEC+ members who produced a combined 612 kb/d less.
And now, the oil futures markets are sending a dire warning that oil bulls could find themselves in trouble quite soon due to a combination of the OPEC+ output hike and Trump’s tariffs.
Oil futures curve has formed a rare “smile” shape, a structure Morgan Stanley says was last seen briefly in February 2020 just before the infamous oil price crash.
On Wednesday, Brent futures’ July contract was trading at a premium of 74 cents to the October contract, a market structure known as backwardation, foreshadowing immediate tight supply.
However, prompt prices from November have formed a contango, with forward prices flipping to a discount, indicating oversupply as traders predict Trump’s tariffs will eventually weaken oil demand. Having backwardation and contango together leads to the rare “smile” shaped curve.
According to the latest available data by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil inventories stood at 7.647 billion barrels in February, down from 7.709 billion barrels for last year’s corresponding period and close to the bottom of their historical five-year range.
Meanwhile, refiners’ appetite for crude is climbing ahead of the peak driving season in July and August, “Refinery maintenance in the Atlantic basin will start to taper off, increasing oil demand (for refining)… Summer driving should provide some support,” BNP Paribas analyst told Reuters.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter of the current year, up from an average of 104.51 million bpd in the second quarter, the IEA has predicted.
The 1 million bpd output increases announced by OPEC+ so far, coupled with another 400 kb/d increase in July, almost matches the predicted demand increase, implying oil markets will not face a surplus till late in the year.
Meanwhile, oil prices jumped in Thursday’s session after the Trump administration announced it has struck a trade deal with the UK. Brent crude for July delivery was up 2.7% to trade at $62.75/bbl at 12.50 pm ET while WTI crude contract for June delivery added 3.0% to change hands at $59.86 per barrel. However, terms of the deal appear to fall well short of the “comprehensive” package Trump earlier touted.
According to Trump, UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will further reduce non-tariff barriers and fast-track U.S. goods into his country.
Meanwhile, another solid week of jobless claims underscored the Federal Reserve’s ongoing unwillingness to cut rates. U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 to 228,000 for the period ending on May 3.
Continued claims, however, clocked in at just over 1.9 million, near the highest levels since 2021, suggesting workers are still finding it difficult to secure new jobs as the economy stalls.
That said, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that path of least resistance for oil prices is lower in the coming months, with oil prices to remain low before beginning a gradual recovery later in the year as U.S. oil output declines.
StanChart, however, says there’s some technical support in the short-term, with fundamentals remaining fairly positive. Recently, StanChart cut its 2025 oil price forecast to $61/bbl from $76 and also lowered its 2026 forecast to USD 78/bbl from $85 citing Trump’s tariffs.
By: Alex Kimani
Oil & Energy
The Tofu Brine Battery That Could End the Lithium Era
Researchers in Hong Kong and China have developed a new form of battery that is more eco-friendly and longer lasting than lithium ion batteries – and it runs on tofu brine. The new water battery is still in research phases, but if the technology proves to be scalable enough to hit commercial markets, it could be a game-changer for the energy and tech sectors.
“Compared with current aqueous battery systems … our system delivers exceptional long-term cycling stability and environmental friendliness under neutral conditions,” the research team, composed of scientists from the City University of Hong Kong and Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, Guangdong, said in a paper published this month in Nature Communications.
The researchers found that their battery model can be recharged over 120,000 times. “At over a hundred thousand cycles, this could mean a single water-based battery could last at least a decade or so,” states a recent report on the breakthrough from Interesting Engineering. “For applications like grid storage (solar farms, wind balancing), that’s extremely valuable,” the article went on to say.
This kind of lifespan would represent a drastic improvement over the battery technologies that dominate today’s market. Lithium-ion batteries degrade after between 1,000 and 3,000 charge cycles. This could prove revolutionary, as finding an alternative to lithium-ion batteries to power rechargeable devices is a major priority for Big Tech and the global energy sector.
Moreover, these tofu-brine batteries could prove safer and more environmentally friendly than lithium-ion batteries. According to the study authors, the full cells are environmentally benign and nontoxic and can be directly discarded to environments according to various standards.” Water based (also called aqueous) batteries can also potentially be cheap to produce as they rely on ingredients that are less rare in addition to being less hazardous.
Lithium is environmentally harmful to extract, prone to fires, and its supply chains are geopolitically fraught. Currently, China alone controls half of the global lithium market, and is rapidly increasing its stake. In 2024, more than eight in ten battery cells on the planet were made in China. This means that finding a battery model that can compete with lithium-ion batteries in applications like grid-scale energy storage and electric vehicles would have revolutionary implications for global markets.
Researchers around the world have been racing to develop battery models that could diversify the market and make it more competitive and resilient. These models range widely in size, components, and application, with models currently under development for next-gen sodium-ion batteries, quantum batteries, nuclear batteries, and even sand and dirt batteries.
Of course, the irony is that the leading alternatives to lithium-ion batteries are also being developed in Chinese labs. If this new tofu-brine battery proves scalable and applicable outside of a laboratory environment, it could just be another step toward Beijing’s goal of near-total domination of clean energy technology value chains and status as the world’s first and premiere ‘electro-state.’
China’s extreme advantage in global battery making gives it a major point of leverage in global economies as the world continues to electrify at a rapid pace. It is estimated that European demand for lithium in batteries will reach kilo tonnes (thousands of tonnes) of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent by next year, and North American demand will reach 250 kit LCE. it’s all but certain that the vast majority of that demand will be supplied by China.
Other nations are aware of the risk of this dependency, and are taking pains to protect and promote domestic battery manufacturing, but these efforts may be too little, too late. “For globally competitive battery manufacturing industries to emerge outside of Asia over the next ten years, companies will need to do far more than ensure regulatory compliance,” summarizes a McKinsey & Company report released in January. “Challenges will need to be overcome on multiple fronts spanning supply chains, talent management, operations and technology.”
By: Haley Zaremba
Oil & Energy
REA TO Spend N100bn On Hybrid Mini-grids For Govt Agencies In 2026
The Rural Electrification Agency (REA) says it will spend N100 billion in 2026 to deploy hybrid mini-grids for government agencies within and outside Abuja.
The Managing Directors, REA, Abba Aliyu, disclosed this while addressing newsmen on the sidelines of the 2026 budget defence session
The approved funds form part of the National Public Sector Solarisation programme, a component of the agency’s broader N170 billion budget proposal for 2026.
The initiative is designed to improve electricity reliability for public institutions while reducing operational costs and easing pressure on the national grid.
Aliyu explained that the agency’s total proposed budget for 2026 stands at N170 billion, with N100 billion of the amount dedicated specifically to the solarisation initiative targeting government agencies.
He said the hybrid mini-grid systems combine solar power with complementary energy sources to ensure an uninterrupted electricity supply.
“The total budget size for 2026 operations is N170 billion, out of which N100 billion had been approved for National Public Sector Solarisation.
Aliyu cited the National Hospital in Abuja as an example where similar infrastructure had been deployed to ensure stable power and cut operational expenses.He added that beyond the Solarisation
Recall that earlier in February 2026, REA signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to deploy solar power systems to 15 public institutions across Nigeria.
The project will be implemented under the Regional Off-Grid Electricity Access Project (ROGEAP), a World Bank-supported initiative aimed at expanding off-grid electricity access across West Africa and the Sahel.
ECOWAS will provide a $700,000 grant to fund the installation of solar photovoltaic systems in selected rural health centres and schools in the Federal Capital Territory, Niger, and Nasarawa States.
Oil & Energy
PIA: TotalEnergies Transfers OLO Oilfield HCDT Obligation To Aradel ……Says HCDT Enabled Completion of 100 Projects In 2 years
In his remarks, the Community Affairs Manager, Aradel Holdings Plc, Blessyn Okpowo, affirmed the company’s commitment to honouring all PIA obligations and continuing Total Energies’ community engagement approach.“We want to say that in line with the PIA, we will honour commitments and duties required of the settlor and we want to work very smoothly with the way TotalEnergies has worked with them,” he stated.
He recognised the Commission’s role in approving the Community Development Plan (CDP) before project start, underscoring regulatory excellence.The parties noted that between 2023 and 2025, the trust has enabled the completion of more than 100 community projects, spanning water supply, electricity, road infrastructure, education, and healthcare with a further 40 projects currently ongoing.
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