Business
Naira Exchange Rates Determined By Demand And Supply Of Forex-Cardoso
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Yemi Cardoso, says the value of the Naira is determined by the availability of foreign exchange.
Cardoso said this yesterday in Abuja while addressing the House of Representatives on Naira depreciation and the instability in the foreign exchange market.
According to him, the exchange rate is determined by the dynamics of supply and demand for a product or service similar to the pricing of cows or cars.
“The value of the dollar in Nigeria is determined by the balance of dollars entering the country and the demand for dollars among Nigerians.
“The exchange rate in Nigeria has increased due to the simultaneous occurrence of two factors: a decline in the supply of dollars coinciding with a surge in the demand for dollars,” he said.
The CBN Governor said that the growing number of Nigerian students studying abroad was also a major contributor to forex scarcity and depreciation of the Naira.
“In the 1980s and 1990s, the need for US dollars for their living expenses was minimal. However, recent data shows a significant change.
“According to UNESCO’s Institute of Statistics, the number of Nigerian students abroad increased from less than 15,000 in 1998 to over 71,000 in 2015.
“By 2018, this figure, according to a World Bank report, had reached 96,702 students. Another report projects the number of Nigerian students studying abroad to exceed 100,000 by 2022.
“Additionally, the UK’s Higher Education Statistic Agency noted a 64 per cent increase in Nigerian students studying in the country, rising from 13,020 in the 2019/2020 academic session to 21,305 by the 2020/2021 session,” he said.
He said that between 2010 and 2020, foreign education expenses amounted to a substantial 28.65 billion dollars.
“Medical treatment abroad has also incurred around 11.01 billion dollars in costs during the same period.
“Consequently, over the past decade, foreign exchange demand for education and healthcare has totaled nearly 40 billion dollars.
“This amount surpasses the total current foreign exchange reserves of the CBN. Mitigating a significant portion of this demand could have resulted in a considerably stronger Naira today,” he said.
He said that Personal Travel Allowances have also accounted for a total of 58.7 billion dollars during the same period.
According to him, between January and September 2019, the CBN disbursed 9.01 billion dollars to Nigerians for personal foreign travel.
He said that Nigeria’s annual imports, which require dollars for payment, amounted to 16.65 billion dollars in 1980.
“By 2014, the annual import expenditure had significantly surged to 67.05 billion dollars, although it gradually decreased to 54.71 billion dollars as of 2023.
“Similarly, food imports escalated from 2.63 billion dollars in 1980 to 14.84 billion dollars in 2019,” he said.
Cardoso said that over the past 12 years, oil exports, constituting over 90 percent of our foreign exchange earnings, have declined from 93.89 billion dollars in 2011 to 31.4 billion dollars in 2020.
“The genuine issue impacting the exchange rate is the simultaneous decrease in the supply of, and increase in the demand for, dollars.
“It also seems that the task of stabilising the exchange rate, while an official mandate of the CBN, would necessitate efforts beyond the apex bank itself and indeed to an attitudinal change of all our citizens,” he said.
Cardoso assured that the management team of the CBN was dedicated to refocusing the apex bank by giving primacy to price stability.
He said that the team also aimed to build confidence in the Nigerian economy through the maintenance of stability in consumer prices and the foreign exchange market.
“We are aware that the twin challenges of inflation and exchange rate depreciation on our economy are daunting, however, they are not insurmountable.
“Monetary policy actions are sometimes inhibited by transmission lags, nonetheless, it is expected that the policy measures implemented by the CBN will permeate the economy in the short- to medium-term.
“Inflation pressures may persist, albeit temporarily, but are expected to moderate significantly by fourth quarter of 2024.
“Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce with the smooth functioning of the foreign exchange market.
“We are committed to implementing policies that will ensure a stable macroeconomic environment and guarantee improved livelihoods for all Nigerians,” he said.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) yesterday said 33 banks have met new minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, raising a combined N4.65 trillion to strengthen the financial system.
The apex bank disclosed this in a statement marking the end of the exercise, which commenced in March 2024 and drew participation from domestic and foreign investors.
The statement was jointly signed by the Director of Banking Supervision, Olubukola Akinwunmi, and the Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali.
The statement said “Over the 24-month period, Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65tn in new capital, strengthening the resilience of the financial system and enhancing its capacity to support the economy.”
The regulator said local investors accounted for 72.55 per cent of the funds, while international investors contributed 27.45 per cent, reflecting continued confidence in the sector.
Commenting on the outcome, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said in the statement, “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”
It added that while 33 banks have complied with the new thresholds, a few others are still undergoing regulatory and legal processes.
The statement noted, “The CBN confirms that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme.
“A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.
“All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.”
The apex bank stressed that the exercise was executed without disrupting banking operations, ensuring uninterrupted access to services nationwide.
It further stated that key prudential indicators have improved, particularly capital adequacy ratios, which remain above global Basel benchmarks.
The minimum ratios were set at 10 per cent for regional and national banks and 15 per cent for banks with international licences.
The bank also said the recapitalisation coincided with a gradual exit from regulatory forbearance, a move it said improved asset quality, strengthened balance sheet transparency, and enhanced overall stability.
To preserve these gains, the CBN said it has reinforced its risk-based supervision framework, mandating periodic stress tests and adequate capital buffers for banks.
It added that supervisory and prudential guidelines would be reviewed regularly to strengthen governance, risk management, and resilience across the sector.
“The successful completion of the programme establishes a stronger and more resilient banking system, better positioned to support lending, mobilise savings, and withstand domestic and global shocks,” the statement said.
The Tide learnt that foreign capital inflows into Nigeria’s banking sector rose by 93.25 per cent year-on-year to $13.53bn in 2025, up from $7.00bn recorded in 2024, amid the ongoing recapitalisation drive by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics capital importation report showed that the banking sector remained the dominant destination for foreign capital, accounting for $13.53bn of the total $23.22bn recorded in 2025, representing 58.26 per cent of total inflows, up from 56.81 per cent in 2024.
The surge reflects heightened investor interest in Nigerian banks as they raised fresh capital to meet new regulatory thresholds introduced by the apex bank, with industry-wide recapitalisation activities driving large-scale inflows across all quarters of the year.
However, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) recently raised concerns over weak credit flows to small businesses despite recent banking sector reforms.
The CPPE, led by a renowned economist, Dr Muda Yusuf, acknowledged that the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise by the CBN has strengthened the financial system, but warned that the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful support for the real economy.
The facility will be disbursed through participating Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), which will in turn extend the loans to their customers, particularly SMEs, as they directly interface with businesses at the grassroots level.
The Executive Director of COMCIN, Mr. Micheal Ogbaa who represented the Chairman, Dr. Iredele Oyedele (FCA, FCCA), said the initiative is designed to strengthen micro-lending institutions and expand access to finance for grassroots entrepreneurs, particularly women and youths in the informal sector.
Ogbaa explained that COMCIN does not lend directly to individuals but works through its network of microfinance and cooperative institutions, which in turn provide loans to end users.
“We came together to advocate for the microfinance ecosystem. Commercial banks often exclude people at the grassroots, but our members are positioned to reach them. This facility will empower them to do more,” he said.
He noted that the loan scheme offers low interest rates and flexible repayment plans, making it more accessible to small business owners.
According to him, about 90 percent of beneficiaries are expected to be women, who play a key role in sustaining families and driving economic activities at the local level.
“Our focus is on traders, service providers, and players in the informal sector. These are the real movers of the economy. By supporting them, we are strengthening families and contributing to national development,” he added.
Ogbaa disclosed that eligible SMEs with proven integrity and business track records could access up to N5 million each through participating micro-lending institutions. The rollout has commenced in Lagos and will extend to Abuja, Enugu, and other regions, including the South-West, South-East, and North-East.
He said 12 micro-lending institutions have already benefited from the scheme, while 85 applications are currently being processed under the pilot phase.
“Our target is to reach at least 100,000 SMEs nationwide. We are building a platform that connects funding partners with credible micro-lending institutions, creating a reliable channel for financial inclusion,” Ogbaa said.
He added that COMCIN is also working to attract larger funding pools from development finance institutions and private investors, noting that successful implementation of the pilot phase would boost confidence and unlock more capital for SMEs.
“We have seen encouraging testimonies from early beneficiaries. As we demonstrate transparency and efficiency, more institutions will be willing to channel funds through us,” he said.
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