A decade ago, Nigeria experienced what was termed the worst flooding disaster, according to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). Ten years later nothing has changed, and nothing has been done to forestall a recurrence of the flooding disaster, or action taken to attenuate the impact of another flooding disaster. Presently,  cities in states situated along the banks of the great Rivers of Benue and Niger are passing through a similitude of Noah’s  experience. Farmlands are flooded and crops washed away; whole towns are completely submerged, in Kogi, Benue, Rivers, and Bayelsa States, but 2023 is the only priority of our politicians. The ruling class has no real sympathy for the masses; and neither the dead nor the displaced hundreds of thousands.  Not even the lost livelihoods matter. Currently, the deluge has already surpassed the earlier forecast by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) that 13 states would be affected. By the time the spillover from Shiroro, Kainji, and Jebba is added to the mix due to the knock-on effect as expected,  the full measure of the disaster can be appreciated

The situation in Kogi State can only be imagined; in fact, no one better describes the state of affairs in Kogi than the State Governor, Yahaya Bello, He said:  “Flooding has affected the nine local government areas which lie along the Rivers Niger and Benue, namely, Lokoja, Kogi-Koto, Ajaokuta, Ofu, Igalamela-Odolu, Bassa, Idah, Ibaji, and Omala. Ibaji is almost 100 per cent underwater while the rest range from 30 percent up. Other inland LGAs also have some degree of flooding from smaller rivers and tributaries.” The current deluge portends great danger to the already dilapidated road infrastructure in the country, especially in Kogi, Rivers, and Bayelsa States. Presently, some parts of the East-West Road are submerged, just like the case in Lokoja. The exacerbation is at a level never seen before. The lifespan of most of these roads will drastically decrease, while some will be completely washed away, as is already the case in Ahoada West Local Government Area in Rivers State.

Due to erratic weather patterns, as evidenced by the timing of the rainy season, and a marked increase in the millimeters per year, there is no doubt that the country has entered a new era where annual flooding disaster is seen as normal upending the lives of millions of Nigerians in the low planes along the tributaries of the great rivers. The resultant effect will be irreparable damage to the nation’s agricultural value chain. Already, Olam Agric has reported a loss of about $20 million resulting from the flooding of 4,400 hectares of cultivated rice farm in Nasarawa State. It is estimated that Olam supplies as much as 25 percent of the rice consumed in Nigeria.

The implication, according to Olam’s Vice President, External Relations and Stakeholder Management, Mr Ade Adefeko, is that before December 2022, rice which is a major staple for most Nigerian families might cost as high as N100, 000. In fact, going by the terrifying projections of Mr Adefeko, food inflamtion might be heading to the precipice. It was triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, amplified by the activities of Fulani herdsmen, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and now Noah-like flooding in the food basket states. The idea that a bag of rice which sold for N20,000 at the time of the 2012 flood, and currently selling for around N40,000 could be sold for as much as N100,000 in the next two months,  is an existential threat of unimaginable proportions. .

What about other staple foods? Already, it is estimated that the economy has lost around N1 trillion in the past two weeks alone, and this figure is expected to rise.  Recall that in the 2012 flood disaster that affected 30 states, which peaked between July and October, many cities were submerged and about 400 persons lost their lives. In the aftermath, the country lost a whopping N2.6 trillion, therefore if the current estimate of N1 trillion in the past two weeks is correct, then nobody occupying any government office relevant to solving the problem of flooding deserves to sleep. You may recall that NIMET and NEMA warned the country of the amount of rain expected this year and the possible aftermath. However it must be stated clearly that our current ordeal is not because of Nigerian rainfall, but the Lagdo  Dam in the Northern Province of Cameroon.

Nigerians must know that abandoned projects have mortal consequences.
The flooding did not happen overnight, the Cameroonians warned the Nigerian Government that it was about to release excess water from Lagdo Dam, and the Nigerian Government equally warned helpless Nigerians to either move from low planes or wait and die, because in most cases in Kogi, Edo, Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, Adamawa, Anambra, Delta, Rivers, and Bayelsa States,  there are no other options. Was the government taken unawares? No. The Lagdo dam has a mummified stillborn twin on the Nigerian side called the Dasin Hausa Dam located in Dasin Village of the Fufore Local Government Area of Adamawa State.

A bilateral agreement was reached around 1977 before construction began on the  Lagdo dam, and the Nigerian government was to build a dam twice the size of the Lagdo dam to serve as a buffer. More than four decades later, the Dasin Housa Dam remains at 90 percent of completion. Since its commissioning in 1982, the Lagdo dam has been supplying electricity and irrigating 15,000 hectares of farmlands for our Cameroonian neighbours. Unfortunately, while the Cameroonians have enjoyed the benefits of the bilateral agreement these forty years, we have remained the weeping child. We continue to suffer calamity as a result of the spillovers from the Lagdo dam.

The Dasin Hausa Dam was never finished to fulfil its primary purpose, and neither did it add any power to the national grid or bring prosperity. Sadly, after the 2012 disaster, then Director of Dams in the Ministry of Water Resources, Dr Emmanuel Adanu, told Environews that the feasibility study done in 1982 for the Dasin Hausa Dam was outdated. He mentioned that a new design was in the works, and if approved, would take 36 months to finish.  He said: “It is now imperative for the Federal Government to build a bumper dam to cushion the effect of water released by Lagdo Dam. We are already taking steps to do the construction and we have started looking at how we can improve on the old design.” It is already ten years and we are back to square one, or even worse. As a nation, our penchant for abandoning projects is second to none. It does not matter the scale, the importance, the level of completion, or even the amount so far spent. At the end of the day even though climate change has a hand in our current ordeal, a greater part of our suffering in this case is self-inflicted. It is due in large part to the inability of the Nigerian Government to honour an agreement and to do what is right for its people since 1977.

Our government’s only role in this whole saga is to relay information from the Cameroonian government. Should we be surprised? No. But we ought to be aware that after 43 years, and after several military and civilian governments, including Obasanjo, Shagari, Buhari, Babangida, Abacha, Obasanjo again, Yar Adua and Jonathan, and Buhari again, a very important infrastructure as the Dasin Hausa Dam is still inoperational. In truth, good leaders think many years into the future. They protect the now, but they also take steps to secure the future.  It is a monumental betrayal,  that the bilateral agreement was signed at the time Nigeria brought the whole of Africa for FESTAC. Recall also, that during that era, someone was heard saying that Nigeria has so much money that we do not even know what to do with it. But during the same era, the first Governor of Rivers State, Navy Commander, Alfred Diete Spief built enduring infrastructure changing the landscape of the city of Port Harcourt.

Interestingly, the Dasin Hausa Dam was started in 1982, but on December 31, 1983, the coup that brought in Major General Mahammadu Buhari took place. Maybe providence has given him another chance to redeem himself. President Buhari must therefore put everything in place to see that even after he leaves office in  May 2023, the Dasin Hausa Dam would still be completed to bring an end to the current perennial flooding.

By: Raphael Pepple