Politics
How Obama’ll Pocket 271 Electoral Votes To Win US Poll
President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
Analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But Obama’s team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win, and he’s paid less attention to it recently.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
“I’m counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next president is!” Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week. In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the end of a six-state marathon: “I need you, Ohio. America needs you, Ohio.”
Romney is banking on what his supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than Democrats.
About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots before November. 6, either in person or by mail. More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be counted until November 6, but some states report the party affiliation of people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. Republicans have the early edge in Colorado.
Obama, who won in 2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.
Romney has fewer options. He must carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the state’s 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning territory.
At the top of that target list are Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.
Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.
Obama was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential debates. But Romney’s strong performance in the debates helped him gain ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.
Operatives in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama’s criticism of Romney’s opposition to the automotive industry bailout. They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies heavily on the car and auto parts industries.
The president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney’s position on the aid. Obama’s internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part of Ohio’s largely blue-collar electorate.
“That is a killer,’” Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position. “And it’s going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the outcome of the election.”
Out of necessity, Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that’s set to hit the East Coast led Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday and join Ryan in Ohio.
In Ohio alone, Romney and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads, compared with Obama and his allies’ $6 million, and showed no signs of letting up in the final week.
Elsewhere, Obama is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal money for Planned Parenthood.
In Nevada, Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the president’s team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state, partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.
Florida, the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney’s standing has improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach for Obama in the coming days.
Associated Press writer Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.
During a press conference held in Owerri, the coalition called the campaign a “dangerous and shameful display” designed to distract the public from the governor’s performance in office.
The CSOs directly linked the Greater Imo Initiative (GII) —the group that made the allegations on September 4, 2025—to Governor Uzodimma, describing the group as his “mouthpiece and attack dog.”
“Every word spoken against INEC was spoken on his behalf.
“By falsely alleging that Professor Yakubu has an alliance with Dr. Amadi to compromise the 2027 elections, Uzodimma has not only maligned a man of proven integrity but also assaulted the very foundation of our democracy”, said Dr Agbo Frederick, speaking for the coalition.
The coalition described Professor Yakubu as a “beacon of electoral professionalism” and called the attempt to soil his reputation “defamatory and a national security risk.”
They also defended Dr. Amadi, a “respected development scholar,” stating that the governor’s accusations were “laughable, desperate, and dangerous.”
The CSOs see the motive behind the campaign as an attempt to “silence the dissent, intimidate the opposition, and divert attention from the governor’s abysmal record in office.”
The coalition issued four key demands to Governor Uzodimma: An immediate retraction of the false and defamatory allegations against Professor Mahmood Yakubu and Dr. Chima Amadi.
- A public apology to both men within seven days, to be published in at least three national newspapers and broadcast on major television networks.
- An end to diversionary tactics and proxy propaganda.
- A renewed focus on governance, including addressing insecurity, unemployment, and poverty in Imo State.
The CSOs warned that failure to comply would force them to “review our position with a view to seeking legal redress from Governor Uzodimma for defamation, false accusation, and reckless endangerment of lives.”
“Governor Uzodimma must be reminded that he did not find himself in the seat of power to chase shadows.
“We call on all Nigerians to reject Uzodimma’s diversionary antics as they are nothing short of desperate plots by a government terrified of accountability”, the statement concluded.
In a statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC expressed concern that preventing the senator from resuming her legislative duties violates democratic principles and disenfranchises her constituents.
“The suspension, having been imposed by the Senate and not a court of law, has lapsed. Any further attempt to prevent her from resuming is therefore both illegal and morally indefensible,” Mallam Abdullahi said.
The party noted that denying Sen. Akpoti-Uduaghan access to the chamber silences the voice of the people who elected her, adding that the withdrawal of her salary, aides, and office access during the suspension amounted to excessive punishment.
The ADC also criticised the Clerk of the National Assembly for declining to process her resumption on grounds that the matter was before the courts, arguing that the Clerk’s role was administrative, not judicial.
“Administrative caution must not translate into complicity. When the administrative machinery becomes hostage to political interests, the institution itself is diminished,” the party stated.
Highlighting that Sen. Akpoti-Uduaghan is one of only four women in the 109-member Senate, the ADC warned that the handling of the case sends a discouraging signal about gender inclusion in Nigerian politics.
“Any action that resembles gender intimidation of the few women in the Senate would only discourage women’s participation. Nigeria cannot claim to be a democracy while excluding half of its population from key decision-making spaces,” Mallam Abdullahi added.
The ADC insisted that Sen. Akpoti-Uduaghan be allowed to resume her seat immediately, stressing that the matter was about more than one individual.
“What is at stake here is not just one Senate seat, but the integrity of our democracy itself,” the party said.
