Politics
How Obama’ll Pocket 271 Electoral Votes To Win US Poll
President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
Analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But Obama’s team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win, and he’s paid less attention to it recently.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
“I’m counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next president is!” Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week. In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the end of a six-state marathon: “I need you, Ohio. America needs you, Ohio.”
Romney is banking on what his supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than Democrats.
About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots before November. 6, either in person or by mail. More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be counted until November 6, but some states report the party affiliation of people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. Republicans have the early edge in Colorado.
Obama, who won in 2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.
Romney has fewer options. He must carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the state’s 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning territory.
At the top of that target list are Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.
Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.
Obama was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential debates. But Romney’s strong performance in the debates helped him gain ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.
Operatives in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama’s criticism of Romney’s opposition to the automotive industry bailout. They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies heavily on the car and auto parts industries.
The president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney’s position on the aid. Obama’s internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part of Ohio’s largely blue-collar electorate.
“That is a killer,’” Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position. “And it’s going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the outcome of the election.”
Out of necessity, Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that’s set to hit the East Coast led Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday and join Ryan in Ohio.
In Ohio alone, Romney and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads, compared with Obama and his allies’ $6 million, and showed no signs of letting up in the final week.
Elsewhere, Obama is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal money for Planned Parenthood.
In Nevada, Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the president’s team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state, partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.
Florida, the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney’s standing has improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach for Obama in the coming days.
Associated Press writer Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.
In a statement issued on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, and signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Mr Obiora Ifoh, the party said it had taken note of Mr Obi’s defection alongside some of his supporters, as well as what it called a “lacklustre speech” delivered by the former Anambra State governor at the defection event.
“We wondered what new he intends to sell to Nigerians,” the party said, adding that it was not surprised by the move, having “since September 2024, parted ways with Peter Obi and some of his blind supporters in the National Assembly.”
According to the statement, the faction said it had patiently awaited Mr Obi’s exit, describing it as a blessing.
“The party is finally liberated by this defection and as party leaders, we count it as a blessing,” the party said.
The faction further disclosed that it had previously urged Mr Obi and his supporters to leave if they were unable to work with the party leadership.
It claimed that several lawmakers had been suspended for anti-party activities and that similar action would have been taken against Mr Obi but for the intervention of “some well-meaning Nigerians.”
It also blamed its internal crisis on Mr Obi and Abia State Governor, Dr. Alex Otti, accusing them of sponsoring what it described as an insurrection against the Julius Abure-led leadership.
“The crisis we had in the Labour Party was caused by Peter Obi and the Abia State governor, Alex Otti,” the statement alleged, adding that it was surprising Dr Otti had not followed Mr Obi out of the party despite his suspension.
Reacting to Mr Obi’s defection event in Enugu, the faction claimed the gathering was largely boycotted by prominent political and traditional institutions in the South East, insisting that those present were “political spent forces who cannot win in their wards should there be an election today.”
It warned that this development signalled the failure of any future Mr Obi presidential or vice-presidential ambition, claiming he had “clearly lost the charm that had endeared him to the people prior to 2023.”
The faction also accused Mr Obi of misleading the South East during the 2023 elections, alleging that the region suffers political marginalisation under President Bola Tinubu’s administration as a result.
“He must be told that the South East lost out completely in President Ahmed Tinubu’s government because they trusted and believed in him in 2023,” the statement said, alleging disparities in ministerial appointments and infrastructure allocation to the zone.
The Abure-Led LP apologised to Nigerians for its decision in the last election.
“We gave Nigerians a candidate we thought was good for the nation in 2023, but time has since proved that we made the greatest political mistake. We plead for forgiveness from Nigerians,” the party said.
It urged Nigerians to watch out for a rebranded Labour Party, promising to present “the best prospect” capable of returning Nigeria to what it described as its “glorious days.”
steadily toward unity, justice, and shared prosperity”, he said.
Speaking to journalists on Wednesday at his country home in Ikere-Ekiti, Dr Oluyede said the development came as a shock, stressing that INEC supervised and monitored the PDP governorship primary that produced him as the party’s candidate.
According to him, INEC officials documented the process, completed all required forms, and even affirmed his candidacy in court through sworn affidavits arising from cases linked to the primary election.
He maintained that no court order or injunction currently restrains INEC from listing his name as the PDP candidate, arguing that the electoral body lacks the constitutional power to determine who emerges as a party’s nominee.
Dr Oluyede described such decisions as the exclusive responsibility of political parties, not the electoral umpire.
While playing down panic over the released list, Dr Oluyede noted that electoral processes often involve reviews and corrections.
He disclosed that he had commenced wide consultations, including engagements with PDP leadership and formal correspondence with INEC, to seek clarification on the omission and determine the next line of action.
The PDP candidate assured his supporters across Ekiti State that he would appear on the ballot, expressing confidence that the situation would be resolved in his favour.
He described attempts to exclude candidates from elections as dangerous and undemocratic, warning that such tactics undermine the people’s right to freely choose their leaders.
Dr Oluyede called on the people of Ekiti to reject any form of disenfranchisement, insisting that elections should be contests of ideas, records, and acceptance by the electorate rather than exclusionary maneuvers.
He also declared that the PDP in Ekiti had resolved its past internal crises and was now united, focused, and ready to win the forthcoming governorship election.
He urged party members and supporters to remain calm and focused, expressing optimism that, with divine grace and the will of the people, the PDP would emerge victorious at the polls.
Mr Obi spoke while formally declaring for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) at a well-attended event in Enugu on Wednesday, where he outlined what he described as a fresh roadmap for rescuing the country from its socio-economic challenges.
Addressing party members, supporters and other stakeholders, the former governor stressed that leadership must be driven by integrity and accountability, warning against the culture of double standards in public office.
“We cannot continue to deceive our people. Leadership is about telling the truth and leading by example. You cannot promise one thing in public and do another in private. That is not leadership, and that is not the change Nigeria needs”, Mr Obi said.
He maintained that genuine national rebirth would only be possible if entrenched wrongs were corrected, adding that governance must be guided by competence, discipline and a clear sense of purpose.
Mr Obi also underscored the need for fresh thinking in the nation’s political space, urging political actors to move away from recycled ideas that have failed to deliver sustainable development.
“We must come with new ideas,” he said, adding that “Nigeria’s problems are not mysterious; what has been lacking is the courage and competence to address them differently. We need a new approach that puts people first and focuses on production, not consumption.”
Calling for a broad based political collaboration, Mr Obi appealed to parties and stakeholders across ideological divides to work together in the national interest.
“This country is bigger than any party or individual. All parties must come together to change the present trend. What matters is not the platform, but the future of Nigeria and the wellbeing of its citizens”, he declared.
Looking ahead to the 2027 general elections, Mr Obi challenged aspirants seeking elective offices to ensure transparency in their credentials, warning that the era of falsified certificates was drawing to a close.
“Anyone contesting for any position in 2027 must come with genuine certificates. All the machinery is now in place to verify what is genuine and what is not. Integrity must start from the very foundation of leadership”, he stated.
Drawing lessons from international development models, Mr Obi cited Rwanda and Indonesia as examples of countries that rose from difficult beginnings to become thriving economies through disciplined leadership and sound policies.
“These countries were once behind us,” he noted, adding that “Today, they are moving ahead because they chose competent leadership, clear vision and policies that support local production and human capital development.”
He also criticised the economic policies of the present administration, particularly the continued importation of food items that can be produced locally, describing such practices as inimical to national development.
“You cannot grow an economy by killing local production. Importing food that we can produce in Nigeria destroys jobs, weakens our farmers and drains our foreign exchange. A serious country must produce what it consumes”, he argued.
The event featured renewed calls from ADC supporters for sustained engagement and mobilisation, as Mr Obi reiterated his belief that Nigeria remains redeemable if led with honesty, competence and a commitment to shared national progress.
In his remarks, the National Chairman of the ADC, Senator David Mark, expressed confidence in the emerging coalition, assuring Nigerians that the party would deliver good governance at all levels of administration if entrusted with power.
The gathering also witnessed the defection of several prominent politicians from different political parties across the South-East and beyond.
The motion endorsing the defection was moved by a former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Chief Emeka Ihedioha, and seconded by former economic adviser to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, Prof. Osita Ogbu.
Goodwill messages from notable political figures, including Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, Mrs. Aisha Yesufu, Chief Sam Egwu, Dr. Okwesilieze Nwodo, Chief Achike Udenwa, Mr Onyema Ugochukwu and Senator Gilbert Nnaji among others, further underscored the growing momentum within the ADC.