Opinion
A Nation In Leadership Trauma
The ill health of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua, President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, who is currently undergoing medical treatment at Sauai Arabia should not create dichotomy and disintegration amongst Nigerians particularly the Northern brethren. There is the wise adage that experience is the best teacher.
It could be recalled that soon after the attainment of independence in 1960, things began to fall apart as a result of greed and egocentricism at the dawn of 1964 which marked the genesis of rulership of the uniformed men in Nigeria for over thirty years with three years civil disorder in-between i.e. 1967- January 12, 1970 the duration of the Nigerian Civil War.
Evidently, it is in this democratic dispensation in the political history of the nation that office of the Vice-President has come to the son of Niger Delta region precisely from Bayelsa State of Nigeria in the personality of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, a renowned university don. What a pride to the Niger Deltans and the entire Nigeria citizenry that such a rare gem is the second in command of the government at the Federa Capital Territory (Abuja).
Prior 1960, Nigeria was in two separate entities known as Northern and Southern Protectorates in conjunction with the colonial administrators, the two protectorates were unified or amalgamated which begat what we have today as a sovereign nation called Nigeria. A British colonial master, Sir Freerick Lord Lugard in 1914, championed that amalgamation. Notably, since the amalgamation syndrome, the Niger Delta has been languishing and suffering in silence under the tyrannical and dictatorial leadership of the Northerners in the spirit of one indivisible entity, Nigeria. Statistically, over eighty-five per cent of the Northerners have been in the helms of affairs, while the products that boost the economy of the nation, which they are controlling at will, emanate from the bonafide soil of the Southern Protectorate, invariably known as the Niger Delta region.
The Niger Deltans has been under socio-economic and political suppression all these while. Without hesitation, it is crystal clear that the huge mineral resources which is the main based of the nation’s sustainability, is coming from the Niger Delta region with particular attention to Ogba ethnic geographical axis of ONELGA of Rivers State of Nigeria where crude oil and gas are being daily explored and exploited in quantities to service the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLGN) at the Bonny Terminals as well as the Eleme Petrochemical Nigeria Limited (EPNL) respectively.
Suddenly, on November 10, 1995 the world Human Rights Activist – General Sani Abacha’s military regime for the simple fact that they asked for systematic benevolence and justice for the common interest of the Niger Deltans silenced Kenule Saro-Wiwa and other prominent personalities of the Niger Delta region to the great beyond.
Biologically, Nigeria is almost fifty (50) years of age both physically, socially, politically, religiously, economically, culturally, traditionally, athletically, philosophically, psychologically and what have you. In fact, Nigeria is a mature sovereign nation and, of course, being classified amongst the developing nations of the global environment.
What captured one’s interest is that Nigeria is also the giant of the continent of Africa, operating a Presidential system of government borrowing a leaf from the United States of America (USA). Even in the educational domain, over sixty-five percent of the populace are literate individuals, moreover as educational institutions are scattered all over the nooks and crannies across board. Basically, this is a true assessment and evaluation.
However, it is disheartening to observe the reasoning and methodology of some well-placed and meaningful Nigerians over an infinitesimal issue such as the illness of President Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua who is away in Saudi Arabia to take care of himself. It is obvious that sickness is on the natural phenomenons which awaits every mortal beings dwelling on the surface of this contaminated planet earth.
Therefore, it should not be a matter for acute debate to the point of urging the President to resign his political portfolio while still breathing. It was more injurious when some Northern cabals have ganged up to stop the Vice-President Dr. Goodluck Jonathan from Presidential participation in his capacity and wish him resign.
Certainly, in a Publication in The Weekend Tide of Saturday, December 5, 2009 the following assertions were: “for fear that he may step into shoes of the President as provided for in the 1999 Constitution.” The Weekend Tide further learnt that “powerful Northern groups like the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and the Dr. Olusola Saraki-led Northern Union (CU) had met.” It was reported “that these groups are not favourably disposed to seeing Jonathan’s possibly stepping into the President’s shoes since he is not from North and would stop at nothing in ensuring that he does not succeed.” These excerpts are made under the caption: Security Beefs-Up Around Jonathan.
Similarly, at the front page of a local tabloid of the Niger Delta December 7-13,2009 it was captioned: Niger Delta Militants Threaten Secession if … Herein, the Joint Revolutionary Council, an umbrella body of all militant groups in the Niger Delta lamented the alleged pressure on the Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan to resign. According to them “We therefore condemn any attempt to undermine him or question his ability and capacity for service to the country and loyalty to President Yar’Adua. “For too long, dubious northern cabals have continued to exploit the ignorance of Southern politics to sow divisions and create anarchy, that time is over. “We will continue to watch the evolving process.” Recently, there are jubilations over the gallant wisdom of Mr. President for the restoration of peace in the Niger Delta through the medium of Amnesty of which the President was highly lauded both within and outside the global community. Although, the Federal Government is not relenting its effort for total combat with militancy and kidnapping syndrome in the Nigerian environment.
Summarily, it does not mean that because the President is sick the nation’s affairs should crumble which may be tantamount to no trustworthy personnel in the system. Of course, this project a negative picture of a nation filled with milk and honey like the Land of Canaan to the wider society. If Mr President is sick, the posit: Is Jonathan also sick? Nigerians should not create room for any confusion in one indivisible entity. The main focus should be to get involve in a prayer network for the President’s quick recovery while the Vice-President pilots the affairs of the nation for he is not incapacitated. We should remember that democracy is still on course!
“How are the mighty fallen in the midst of the battle! O Jonathan, thou wast slain in thine high places. How are the mighty fallen … “ 2nd Samuel 1 vs 25,27. Enough of Niger Delta assaults!
Ominyanwa is a Public Affairs Analyst, RSUST, Port Harcourt.
G.N. Ominyanwa
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Opinion
Fuel Subsidy Removal and the Economic Implications for Nigerians
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo
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