Politics
Is the surge of early voting good or bad for Donald Trump?
The US election is little more than a week away, but already, the turnout of early voters has surpassed that of the 2016 election.
It is reported that roughly 60 million people have already cast their vote, which suggests that this election could have the highest voter turnout in more than a century.
The states of Texas, Florida and California, two of which were won by Donald Trump four years ago, have witnessed the most votes thus far. However, worryingly for the President, it is predicted that the majority of those ballots have gone in Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s favour, once againcementing his place as the overwhelming favourite in the next US President odds.
Pressure has been mounting on President Trump for months now, as he continues to fall further-and-further behind Mr Biden in the polls. The president has been criticised for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the Black Lives Matter protests.
However, the Democratic nominee, who has appeared in public much less during his campaign trails, might not hold as big of an advantage as originally reported in the hugely decisive battleground states.
With the election just around the corner, the pair are ramping up their campaigns in the battleground states, with both candidates trying to win over the voters in the some of the most crucial part of the United States.
In Florida, which has an influential 29 electoral votes, Biden has a reported lead of 1.7%, whilst the Barack Obama’s former vice president holds a healthier advantage of 5.4% in Pennsylvania, which is the state with the second most electoral votes (20). President Trump, who is believed to be planning a whopping five rallies a day in the final straight, is returning to Pennsylvania, where he won by less than 45,000 votes in 2016, on Monday to try and turn the tides.
Mr Biden’s biggest leaders are in Michigan (7.4%) and Wisconsin (6.8%), whilst he is also in front in the polls in North Carolina (2.7%) and Arizona (3.7%). This means, in terms of the battleground states, President Trump is leading in just Ohio and Iowa, both of which are extremely slender advantages – 1.8% and 0.1% respectively.
Of course, these polls might not be a fair reflection of how the election will pan out. In 2016, the polls massively underestimated the number of Trump supporters, whilst the number of people polled that said they would vote of Mr Biden, might not actually cast their ballot.
Additionally, Hilary Clinton had a massive advantage in the polls throughout the entirety of the 2016 election. However, Trump ended up pulling it back through the electoral college.
The surge of early voters does not mean that the Democrats can get ahead of themselves and are guaranteed victory. This is because it is believed that a large majority of the early ballots are from Democrats, women, and black Americans, whilst people wanting to avoid crows on election day are also part of early voters.
The Republicans themselves believe that the majority of their supports will turn out in number on November 3rd, so whilst Biden has shot into an early, the drama of the 2020 election is far from over!
Prof. Amupitan gave the warning on Saturday, in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, during the South-South Zonal Readiness Assessment and Interactive Staff Engagement organised ahead of the 2027 general elections.
He said insecurity remained a potential challenge to the electoral process but stressed that the Commission would not allow threats against its personnel to undermine its constitutional responsibilities.
“Insecurity may pose a challenge, but our collective constitutional resolve is far stronger. Let me again send a clear message from Port Harcourt: anyone who attempts to threaten, intimidate, or harm our ad-hoc staff, NYSC members, or permanent personnel will be brought to justice under the full weight of the law,” he said.
The INEC Chairman, who was accompanied by National Commissioners, directors and technical aides, disclosed that the South-South engagement was the fifth in a series of zonal assessments, following similar exercises in the South-West, North-West, South-East and North-East.
He explained that his physical presence across the geopolitical zones reflected the Commission’s field-first approach, emphasising that electoral integrity must be established through effective operations at the grassroots.
According to him, the assessment would cover operational preparedness across the 123 Local Government Areas in the six South-South states.
On election security, Prof. Amupitan said INEC had moved away from reactive security arrangements traditionally activated around election day to a proactive, intelligence-driven framework known as the “ICCES Tentacle”.
He explained that the framework was designed to extend inter-agency security coordination from national and state headquarters to local government areas and Registration Area Centres, including remote communities.
He identified three critical pillars of the framework as mapping and mitigating security threats, protecting electoral personnel and infrastructure, and guaranteeing safe access to polling units.
The INEC boss said the security arrangement would provide comprehensive protection for electoral personnel, technological infrastructure, including Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices and server infrastructure, as well as voters.
He added that the framework was intended to ensure that every polling unit, irrespective of its geographical location or history of security challenges, remained safe and accessible for the exercise of democratic rights.
Prof. Amupitan disclosed that the South-South security architecture comprised approximately 60 major operational formations, headquarters and state commands operating under the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES).
The network, he said, brings together military, naval, air, police and other security and intelligence agencies across the six states.
“Together, this integrated multi-agency network represents the operational backbone that guarantees intelligence-led protection across every riverine creek, coastal axis, and land-based polling unit in the Niger Delta,” he stated.
Providing an overview of the region’s electoral significance, the INEC Chairman said the South-South had the fourth-largest voting bloc in the country, with 15,823,550 registered voters, representing 15.30 per cent of the national register.
Rivers State alone, he said, accounts for 3,736,434 registered voters spread across the 23 local government areas.
Alhaji Abubakar made the demand following revelations that some INEC registration officers allegedly abused their access to the voter registration system to introduce irregular records into the database.
In a statement issued by his Director of Strategic Communications, Mr Phrank Shaibu, the former vice-president described the development as a serious breach of the Commission’s internal safeguards and raised concerns about the integrity of the electoral process.
He urged INEC to identify the officials implicated in the alleged misconduct and explain what disciplinary or legal measures had been taken against them.
Alhaji Abubakar also called for an independent forensic audit of the preliminary voters’ register to establish the scale of the alleged manipulation, identify affected records and determine how the questionable entries were introduced into the system.
He further insisted that INEC preserve all relevant voter records, image files, system access logs and electronic audit trails to prevent the destruction or alteration of evidence before an independent examination could be conducted.
The former vice-president also demanded that the Commission disclose the identities of companies contracted to produce sensitive election materials ahead of the 2027 polls, arguing that transparency was essential to building public confidence in the electoral process.
INEC’s Director of Information and Communication Technology, Dr Lawrence Bayode, had earlier disclosed during a television interview that some registration officers across the country allegedly used their official login credentials to introduce irregularities into the voters’ database.
Dr Bayode explained that the Commission’s Automated Biometric Identification System helped identify questionable records and establish how some irregularities entered the system.
He, however, clarified that not all suspicious photographs were AI-generated, as some resulted from poor registration procedures.
The development followed public concerns over suspected AI-generated photographs, alleged duplicate entries and other inconsistencies discovered in the preliminary voters’ register published online on October 26, 2026.
INEC has maintained that the published document is a preliminary register and that it is reviewing questionable records ahead of the certification of the final Register of Voters.
The controversy has intensified calls for greater transparency and accountability in the management of the voters’ register as preparations gather momentum for the 2027 general elections.
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