Politics
Is the surge of early voting good or bad for Donald Trump?
The US election is little more than a week away, but already, the turnout of early voters has surpassed that of the 2016 election.
It is reported that roughly 60 million people have already cast their vote, which suggests that this election could have the highest voter turnout in more than a century.
The states of Texas, Florida and California, two of which were won by Donald Trump four years ago, have witnessed the most votes thus far. However, worryingly for the President, it is predicted that the majority of those ballots have gone in Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s favour, once againcementing his place as the overwhelming favourite in the next US President odds.
Pressure has been mounting on President Trump for months now, as he continues to fall further-and-further behind Mr Biden in the polls. The president has been criticised for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the Black Lives Matter protests.
However, the Democratic nominee, who has appeared in public much less during his campaign trails, might not hold as big of an advantage as originally reported in the hugely decisive battleground states.
With the election just around the corner, the pair are ramping up their campaigns in the battleground states, with both candidates trying to win over the voters in the some of the most crucial part of the United States.
In Florida, which has an influential 29 electoral votes, Biden has a reported lead of 1.7%, whilst the Barack Obama’s former vice president holds a healthier advantage of 5.4% in Pennsylvania, which is the state with the second most electoral votes (20). President Trump, who is believed to be planning a whopping five rallies a day in the final straight, is returning to Pennsylvania, where he won by less than 45,000 votes in 2016, on Monday to try and turn the tides.
Mr Biden’s biggest leaders are in Michigan (7.4%) and Wisconsin (6.8%), whilst he is also in front in the polls in North Carolina (2.7%) and Arizona (3.7%). This means, in terms of the battleground states, President Trump is leading in just Ohio and Iowa, both of which are extremely slender advantages – 1.8% and 0.1% respectively.
Of course, these polls might not be a fair reflection of how the election will pan out. In 2016, the polls massively underestimated the number of Trump supporters, whilst the number of people polled that said they would vote of Mr Biden, might not actually cast their ballot.
Additionally, Hilary Clinton had a massive advantage in the polls throughout the entirety of the 2016 election. However, Trump ended up pulling it back through the electoral college.
The surge of early voters does not mean that the Democrats can get ahead of themselves and are guaranteed victory. This is because it is believed that a large majority of the early ballots are from Democrats, women, and black Americans, whilst people wanting to avoid crows on election day are also part of early voters.
The Republicans themselves believe that the majority of their supports will turn out in number on November 3rd, so whilst Biden has shot into an early, the drama of the 2020 election is far from over!
Alhaji Mohammed Kasim, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has won the Gwagwalada Area Council chairmanship election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Philip Akpeni, the Returning Officer of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), announced the results on Sunday morning.
Alhaji Kasim polled 22,165 votes to defeat Alhaji Yahaya Shehu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who polled 17,788 votes.
Alhaji Biko Umar of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) scored 1, 687 to come in third place.
“I am the returning officer for the 2026 FCT Area Council, Gwagwalada chairmanship held on Feb. 21, 2026,” Akpeni said.
“That Mohammed Kasim of PDP, having certified the requirements of the law, is hereby declared the winner and is returned elected.”
In the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Hon. Christopher Maikalangu, the APC candidate, was declared the winner of the chairmanship poll with 40,295 votes.
Andrew Abue, the Collation Officer for AMAC, said Hon. Maikalangu, who is the incumbent AMAC chairman, was returned elected having scored the highest number of votes cast.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) came second with 12,109 votes, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) polled 3,398 votes.
According to Abue, the total number of valid votes in the chairmanship poll was 62,861, while the total votes cast stood at 65,197.
He added that the number of registered voters in AMAC was 837,338, while the total number of accredited voters was 65,676.
Meanwhile, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared Mr. Joshua Ishaku of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the winner of the Bwari Area Council Chairmanship election.
Announcing the result on Sunday in Bwari, the Returning Officer for the election, Prof. Mohammed Nurudeen, stated that Ishaku polled a total of 18,466 votes to emerge victorious in the February 21, 2026 poll.
“I am the Returning Officer for the 2026 FCT Area Council, Bwari chairmanship held on Feb. 21, 2026. That Joshua Ishaku, having satisfied the requirements of the law, is hereby declared the winner and is returned elected,” Nurudeen said.
According to the results declared, the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) secured 4,254 votes, while the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) polled 3,515 votes to place second and third respectively.
The declaration adds to the series of results emerging from the 2026 FCT Area Council elections, as political parties assess their performance ahead of future contests.
INEC UPLOADS 2,602 OF 2,822 FCT CHAIRMANSHIP RESULTS ON IReV
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had uploaded 2,602 out of the 2,822 expected polling unit results from Saturday’s chairmanship elections in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as at 5:55am on Sunday, data retrieved from its Result Viewing Portal (IReV) showed.
According to The Tide source, the figure represents an overall upload rate of about 92.2 per cent across the six area councils of the territory.
A council-by-council breakdown indicates that Municipal Area Council recorded the highest number of submissions in absolute terms, with 1,309 of 1,401 polling unit results uploaded, representing 93.43 per cent.
In Gwagwalada Area Council, 330 of the expected 338 polling unit results had been uploaded, representing 97.63 per cent — the highest upload rate among the six councils.
In Bwari Area Council, INEC uploaded 463 of 485 polling unit results, translating to 95.46 per cent.
In Abaji Area Council, 129 of 135 polling unit results had been uploaded as at 5:55am, representing 95.56 per cent.
In Kwali Area Council, 164 of the expected 201 polling unit results were available on the portal, representing 81.59 per cent.
In Kuje Area Council, 207 of 262 polling unit results had been uploaded, representing 79.01 per cent — the lowest rate among the six councils as at the time of review.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Emeka Nwankpa, and Secretary, Dapo Okubanjo, the group described the swift assent as a clear demonstration of political will to strengthen Nigeria’s electoral process ahead of the 2027 general elections.
“We see the decision by President Bola Tinubu to sign the reworked 2022 Electoral Act into law within a few hours of its passage as a demonstration of political will to ensure an improved electoral process which the new law envisages,” the group said.
The TMSG expressed confidence that the development would enable the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) to quickly align its operations with the new provisions in preparation for the 2027 polls.
The group noted that the provision for electronic transmission of results had been contentious but described its codification in the law as a significant step forward.
“So, for the first time, the country’s electoral law would be recognising the use of the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the result viewing portal, IREV, which were just INEC guidelines in 2023,” it stated.
According to the TMSG, although the Act provides for electronic transmission of results from polling units to the IREV portal, it also makes room for manual transmission of Form EC8A result sheets as a backup in the event of technological failure.
“Unlike some Nigerians, we do not see anything wrong with the fallback plan but we agree with the President that no matter how beautiful a process is with improved technology, the onus lies on the people manning it to show good faith and ensure that the votes of the people really count at the end of the day,” the statement added.
The group highlighted other key provisions in the amended law, including the streamlining of party primaries to either consensus or direct primaries, early release of funds to INEC, reinforced measures against over-voting, and stiffer sanctions for electoral offences such as falsification of results.
It also pointed out that the mandatory notice period for elections has been reduced from 360 days to 300 days, giving INEC more flexibility in adjusting the timetable for the 2027 elections, especially where it may clash with Ramadan.
The TMSG further observed that the President’s decision to sign the bill days before the forthcoming Area Council Election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) underscores his desire for the law to take immediate effect.
“And by signing the amendment bill a few days before the Area Council Election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), it is obvious that the President is keen on ensuring that the 2026 Electoral Act takes immediate effect.
“Nigerians would also have an opportunity to see some of the key provisions of the new electoral law become operational, especially the electronic transmission of results,” it said.
The group expressed optimism that the current INEC leadership would leverage the new legal framework to deliver a more credible and widely acceptable electioneering process than in previous electoral cycles.
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