Politics
Is the surge of early voting good or bad for Donald Trump?
The US election is little more than a week away, but already, the turnout of early voters has surpassed that of the 2016 election.
It is reported that roughly 60 million people have already cast their vote, which suggests that this election could have the highest voter turnout in more than a century.
The states of Texas, Florida and California, two of which were won by Donald Trump four years ago, have witnessed the most votes thus far. However, worryingly for the President, it is predicted that the majority of those ballots have gone in Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s favour, once againcementing his place as the overwhelming favourite in the next US President odds.
Pressure has been mounting on President Trump for months now, as he continues to fall further-and-further behind Mr Biden in the polls. The president has been criticised for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the Black Lives Matter protests.
However, the Democratic nominee, who has appeared in public much less during his campaign trails, might not hold as big of an advantage as originally reported in the hugely decisive battleground states.
With the election just around the corner, the pair are ramping up their campaigns in the battleground states, with both candidates trying to win over the voters in the some of the most crucial part of the United States.
In Florida, which has an influential 29 electoral votes, Biden has a reported lead of 1.7%, whilst the Barack Obama’s former vice president holds a healthier advantage of 5.4% in Pennsylvania, which is the state with the second most electoral votes (20). President Trump, who is believed to be planning a whopping five rallies a day in the final straight, is returning to Pennsylvania, where he won by less than 45,000 votes in 2016, on Monday to try and turn the tides.
Mr Biden’s biggest leaders are in Michigan (7.4%) and Wisconsin (6.8%), whilst he is also in front in the polls in North Carolina (2.7%) and Arizona (3.7%). This means, in terms of the battleground states, President Trump is leading in just Ohio and Iowa, both of which are extremely slender advantages – 1.8% and 0.1% respectively.
Of course, these polls might not be a fair reflection of how the election will pan out. In 2016, the polls massively underestimated the number of Trump supporters, whilst the number of people polled that said they would vote of Mr Biden, might not actually cast their ballot.
Additionally, Hilary Clinton had a massive advantage in the polls throughout the entirety of the 2016 election. However, Trump ended up pulling it back through the electoral college.
The surge of early voters does not mean that the Democrats can get ahead of themselves and are guaranteed victory. This is because it is believed that a large majority of the early ballots are from Democrats, women, and black Americans, whilst people wanting to avoid crows on election day are also part of early voters.
The Republicans themselves believe that the majority of their supports will turn out in number on November 3rd, so whilst Biden has shot into an early, the drama of the 2020 election is far from over!
The state chairman of the party, Dr Babandi Gumel, disclosed this in a statement signed and made available to journalists on Saturday.
According to the statement, the Jigawa PDP received news of Alhaji Lamido’s suspension with “profound shock and disappointment”.
The statement added that the suspension, which was reportedly based on allegations that Alhaji Lamido attended meetings capable of undermining party unity, amounts to an affront to justice, internal democracy and the reconciliation efforts recently championed by the PDP leadership.
The party stressed that the exercise of legal and constitutional rights within the party should not be interpreted as an act of disunity. It recalled that Alhaji Lamido approached the court after he was allegedly denied the opportunity to purchase a nomination form to contest the position of National Chairman of the PDP.
The statement further noted that the Federal High Court in Abuja, presided over by Justice Peter Lifu, ruled in Alhaji Lamido’s favour by restraining the PDP from proceeding with its national convention until his right to contest was determined.
The Jigawa PDP argued that the suspension appeared to be a punitive action against Alhaji Lamido for seeking judicial redress over an issue on which the court had already found merit.
The party also faulted the decision of the BoT for contradicting recent public statements by its chairman, Senator Adolphus Wabara, who had emphasised reconciliation within the party, admitted past mistakes and appealed to aggrieved members to return fully to the PDP fold.
However, it maintained that suspending a founding member who sought justice through legal means runs contrary to the spirit of reconciliation and healing publicly advocated by the party leadership.
The chairman said the suspension was premature and prejudicial, as the matter remains before the courts. He also described Alhaji Lamido as one of the few founding fathers of the PDP who has remained loyal to the party without defecting, warning that punishing such loyalty sends a negative signal to other committed members.
The party further argued that the action undermines party unity at a time when the PDP requires cohesion to effectively challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). It also insisted that there is no provision in the PDP constitution that allows for the suspension of a “life member”.
The party called on the BoT to immediately and unconditionally withdraw the suspension of Alhaji Lamido.
It also demanded that the BoT publicly affirm the right of all party members to aspire to leadership positions in line with the party’s constitution and the laws of the country, without fear of victimisation.
It further urged the BoT to retrace its steps, align its actions with its reconciliation agenda, and tender an apology to Alhaji Lamido.
The Jigawa PDP reaffirmed its commitment to a united, democratic and law-abiding Party.
In a statement signed by its Executive Director, Comrade Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, CISLAC warned that if proven, such actions would amount to a serious breach of constitutional order, legislative integrity, and public trust.
The organisation noted that Nigeria’s law-making process is clearly defined by the Constitution, stressing that any alteration of a bill after parliamentary passage undermines democratic governance and the principle of separation of powers.
CISLAC further emphasised that taxation has direct implications for citizens, businesses, sub-national governments, and the overall economy. It stated that uncertainty or a lack of transparency in tax legislation could erode investor confidence and raise concerns about accountability and the possible abuse of executive power.
The organisation described the situation as particularly troubling given the rare inclusive, and thorough public consultation that shaped the law’s final provisions prior to its passage.
“This process brought together taxpayers, civil society groups, professional organisations, the private sector, labour unions, local governments, and technical experts, ensuring that diverse viewpoints were considered and carefully balanced.
“Any unilateral changes to these agreed-upon provisions, made outside the established legislative process and without renewed public engagement, not only breach public trust but also violate the fundamental tax principle of representation, which holds that citizens must have a meaningful voice in shaping the laws that govern how they are taxed. Such actions undermine democratic accountability, weaken the legitimacy of the tax system, and risk eroding public confidence”, it noted.
CISLAC expressed particular concern that uncertainty surrounding the authenticity of the tax law, coming at a time when a new tax regime is expected to take effect, could exacerbate the economic hardship already faced by many Nigerians.
It observed that citizens are contending with rising living costs, inflationary pressures, declining purchasing power, and reduced access to basic services, warning that implementing a disputed tax framework under such conditions, risks deepening inequality, discouraging compliance, and fuelling public resentment.
The organisation stressed that tax reforms must be anchored in clarity, legality, fairness, and social sensitivity, cautioning that any tax system introduced without full transparency, adequate public communication, and legislative certainty undermines voluntary compliance and weakens the social contract between the state and its citizens.
As part of its recommendations, CISLAC called on the Presidency to urgently publish the exact version of the tax law assented to, alongside the authenticated copy passed by the National Assembly, to allow for public and institutional verification.
It also urged the leadership of the National Assembly to promptly exercise its oversight powers to determine whether the assented law reflects the will of the legislature, including a review of the enrolled bill process.
The organisation maintained that any discrepancy discovered should be treated as unconstitutional and addressed through lawful means, such as the re-transmission of the correct bill or judicial interpretation where necessary. It further called for an independent review of the process by relevant institutions, including the Office of the Attorney-General of the Federation and, where required, the judiciary, to establish the facts and assign responsibility.
CISLAC noted that the controversy highlights the urgent need to strengthen safeguards at the legislative and executive interface. It recommended measures such as digital tracking of bills, public access to enrolled legislation, and more transparent assent procedures.
CISLAC emphasised that the issue is not about partisan politics but about safeguarding the integrity of Nigeria’s democratic institutions. It warned that allowing any arm of government to unilaterally alter laws passed by another sets a dangerous precedent and weakens constitutional democracy.
The organisation urged all parties involved to act with restraint, openness, and fidelity to the Constitution, noting that Nigerians deserve laws that reflect due process, the public interest, and the collective decisions of their elected representatives.
CISLAC added that it will continue to monitor developments and engage relevant stakeholders to promote accountability, transparency, and the rule of law in Nigeria’s governance processes.
