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IMF, World Bank Differ On Nigeria’s Growth Forecast
Contrary to the 2.1 per cent growth projected by the World Bank in the Nigerian economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected 2.5 per cent growth for it.
The IMF projection, as contained in its January Global Economic Outlook, released yesterday, covers two-year growth target.
The IMF prediction is 0.4 per cent higher than 2.1 per cent projected by the World Bank for three years: 2020 – 2023.
The World Bank report was captured in its January Global Economic Prospects released on January 8.
It, however, described the country’s macroeconomic framework as not “conducive to confidence”, adding that the macroeconomic framework is characterised by multiple exchange rates, foreign exchange restrictions and persistent inflation.
In the report titled: “Tentative stabilisation, sluggish recovery”, signed by Gita Gopinath, an Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the Fund, the IMF said the Nigerian economy will grow at 2.5 per cent this year and the next.
According to the Fund, the economy grew 1.9 per cent in 2018 and 2.3 per cent last year.
The IMF report said in sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to strengthen to 3.5 percent in 2020 to 2021 from 3.3 per cent last year.
The projection is 0.1 percentage point lower than in the October World Economic Outlook for 2020 and 0.2 percentage point weaker for 2021.
“This”, the Fund said: “reflects downward revisions for South Africa (where structural constraints and deteriorating public finances are holding back business confidence and private investment) and for Ethiopia where public sector consolidation, needed to contain debt vulnerabilities, is expected to weigh on growth.”
It said global growth is projected to rise from an estimated 2.9 per cent last year to 3.3 per cent in 2020 and 3.4 per cent for 2021 a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for last year and 2020 and 0.2 for 2021.
According to the IMF, low interest rates and reduced trade tensions will likely buoy the global economy over the next two years and help nurture steady if modest growth.
The IMF said emerging market economies in macroeconomic distress related to domestic imbalances would need to continue making the policy adjustments necessary for rebuilding confidence and putting in place the conditions for a return to stable and sustainable growth.
The report said: “In these contexts, ensuring adequate safety nets to protect the vulnerable remains critical within overall existing constraints.
Credit to Nigeria’s private sector rose to N83.26 trillion in June 2026 from N81.04 trillion in May, signifying a positive balance of N2.22 trillion month-on-month.
Year-on-year, the figure represents a nine per cent increase compared with the N76.13 trillion recorded in June 2025. The latest figures come as the CBN continues to balance efforts to control inflation with the need to support economic growth and expand credit to businesses.
The CBN data shows that credit to Nigeria’s private sector increased by approximately 2.74 per cent month-on-month between May and June 2026. Also, the CBN data noted that credit to the government fell slightly to N40.03 trillion from N40.38 trillion. Other assets, net, dropped to N10.76 trillion from N12.63 trillion.
The credit surge signifies sustained growth in lending to businesses and other private-sector borrowers during the month. The rise in private sector credit was recorded alongside an increase in net domestic credit, despite declines in credit to government and other assets.
Further analysis of the report says that compared with June 2025, private sector credit rose by about N7.13 trillion yea-on-year but net domestic credit increased by approximately N1.87 trillion during the month.
The CBN’s relatively tight monetary policy stance notwithstanding, more banks still loaded funds to the private sector within the period. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held its 306th meeting on July 20 and 21.
The Committee reviewed recent developments in the global and domestic economies, assessed emerging risks to the outlook and considered their implications for monetary policy and retained all rates.
The Committee decided to retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent; the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points and retain the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and non-TSA public sector deposits at 75.00 per cent.
The MPC decision means that credit extension in the private sector will likely continue to rise because of rising confidence in the sector and calls by stakeholders for banks to invest in the private scetor instead of government securities.
