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Africa’s Most Interesting Untapped Oil Play

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When writing the article on this year’s Top Oil Wildcats, one of the hottest candidates had to be dropped out of the list. Not because the prospect turned out to be sub-commercial, far from it, it remains one of Africa’s most interesting untapped plays, potentially opening up a new country with no previous exposure to the world of energy. As Senegal and Mauritania started to break their way onto the energy maps of Western Africa, Guinea Bissau has remained a relative outlier. At the same time it needs to be pointed out that lack of officially recognized discoveries does not necessarily mean lack of hydrocarbons, as can be attested by the Atum prospect. Atum remains one of the hottest plays in offshore Africa, an overlooked gem that would only need a little bit of political stability to shine.
Recent big discoveries in Senegal’s offshore, such as FAN-1 and SNE (the latter being the largest oil discovery globally in 2014), shortly thereafter followed by new plays in Mauritania’s offshore such as Orca, have unearthed an untapped frontier area that is rich in both oil and gas. Over the past decade Mauritania and Senegal have advanced quite well in terms of appraising their offshore territory, however the southern flank of the MSGBC Basin (short for Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea-Conakry) has been lagging behind. The root causes of this are institutional, although Guinea Bissau adopted a new Petroleum Law in 2014, its implementation was never really tested in real life. In countries where peaceful handover of power is still a questionable concept, the anticipation of hydrocarbon discoveries to come, coupled with a heightened sense of political infighting, has created a cumbersome challenge.
The hydrocarbon story of Guinea Bissau is a fairly standard one for a small West African nation.
The tiny country has no commercial discoveries up to date, with official 2P reserves estimated at 12-13 million barrels (equivalent to the Sinapa oil discovery within Block 02). The last offshore wildcat that Bissau had seen dates back to 2007 when the UK-based firm Premier Oil spudded the Eirozes-1 well in the Esperança block. Drilled into a total depth of 2250 metres in water depth of 100 metres, the well turned out to be dry. This failure has prompted Premier Oil to leave Guinea Bissau’s offshore in December 2007 – thereafter Svenska Petroleum assumed operatorship over the block. Whilst the Atum prospect, located farther out in deeper waters, has been known for quite some time already, financial issues of license-holding firms and the general lack of appetite for genuine frontier drilling has kept the ambition down.
The Atum prospect is located in the westernmost part of Block 02, partially spilling over into Block 04. It is abutted from the left by the Anchova prospect and from the right by the Sardinha prospect (you have guessed it right, the fishy concept extends to Atum, too, the name of the blocks means “tuna”). What is new about the Atum prospect? First and foremost, Atum is assumed to become Guinea Bissau’s first-ever deepwater well. Second, Atum is an analogue of Senegal’s SNE-1: it, too, is a shelf-edge play, in similar water depths (900 metres vs 1100 metres) and targeting the same Upper Albian deposits. The unrisked prospective resources of Atum are assessed at 471 MMbbls, i.e. very similar to those of SNE (563 MMbbls). Should the prospective drillers also aim for the Anchova prospect next to Atum, the combined reserves total would increase to 568MMbbls.
Atum has up to now suffered from one main deficiency – lack of a financially robust oil major. Throughout the 2010s, the Swedish Svenska Petroleum was seeking to farm out interests in Blocks 02 and 04A to fund its ambitious drilling plans. Struggling to go at it completely alone, Svenska reached an agreement in August 2019 with the Chinese CNOOC. CNOOC was to purchase 55.55% of the Sinapa and Esperança license blocks (i.e. Block 2 and Blocks 4A/5A) for the duration of the exploration phase, to be converted into a regular 50% participating interest should the project be deemed commercially viable.
The transaction was assumed to be concluded at some point in Q3 2019, once all the authorities of Guinea Bissau provide all regulatory approvals – needless to say, at that point (just as now) Block 02 was the most promising offshore play that Bissau had. Upon receiving all required approvals, drilling the Atum prospect in Block 02 was supposed to take place in Q1 2020, an ambition that never materialized.
Domestic political turmoil is also one of the main reasons underlying Guinea Bissau’s inability to move swiftly enough on regulatory approvals. For a brief period in early 2020 the West African nation had two presidents simultaneously, pitting the camp of Umaro Embaló, the winner of the presidential elections, and Domingos Simoes who refused to acknowledge the results of the ballot and had Cipriano Cassama elected as interim president. It was the President that was bound to approve CNOOC’s farm-in into Block 02 of Guinea Bissau’s offshore and with both parties fully focused on tripping up political opponents rather than kickstarting the country’s oil and gas sector, the end result was worse than anybody could have forethought.
Against this background, not only did CNOOC quit the intended deal, Svenska Petroleum sold all of its Guinea Bissau acreage (78.57% in Blocks 02, 04A and 05A) to the Norwegian PetroNor in November 2020. It seems likely that PetroNor, joined by the embattled Australian company FAR (21.42% interest), would also prefer to have a go at Atum with a heavy-hitting partner. The acreage license covering exploration works in Block 02 was extended by further 3 years into 2023, therefore the road is clear for interested parties. With this, the spudding of the Atum-1 wildcat is most likely to take place in 2022.
Katona writes for Oilprice.com
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Monarch Fingers Political Class On Community’s Socio-Economic Woes

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Paramount Ruler of Owei-wari Community of Biseni Clan in the Yenagoa Local Government Area of Bayelsa State, HRH Elijah Opia Churchman, has alleged that some members of the political class in the clan were against the socio-economic prosperity and development of his community.
The royal father stated this recently at the State Secretariat complex, Yenagoa, the state capital, during an interview with Journalists shortly after his exit from the Federal High Court, Yenagoa, where he said he was currently pursuing a case the community instituted against some alleged anti-development agents.
He said while the Owei-wari Community used to be a compound in one of the communities of the kingdom, some years ago as landlords and host of an oil firm operating in the area, the compound having been overwhelmed by the constant outcry of marginalization by its people, moved for recognition as an autonomous community in the clan.
The monarch, who also bared his mind on the intentions of a group called “the Progressive Minded forum of Biseni clan”, said the group has been a strong advocate of the creation of more clans for the people of Biseni in which his community would also be a clan.
He reaffirmed his commitment to the continued pursuit of peace, progress and development of his community and the entire clan, noting, however, that for years now some members of the political class in the area have conspicuously been working against the realization of the dreams and yearnings of the Owei-wari Community.
“We’re working assiduously to see that at least six clans are created in the current Biseni clan so that Owei-wari Community with over 13 settlements becomes one of them, but some politicians and a few of their followers in the clan are working against us for no obvious reasons.
“We’ve advised the King of Biseni Clan that his scope of domain should extend to all Biseni communities and lands from the Orashi River, River Nun, through River Niger so that he can oversee the entire six clans that we plan to create in the kingdom.
“In our thinking as it were, now that we’ve Okordia/Biseni/Zarama in Yenagoa Local Government Area for the state House of Assembly constituency, when more clans are created in Biseni in which communities like Egbebiri, Tein, Toboru, Akpede and Owei-wari would become clans, then as a kingdom, whenever it’s our turn to produce the Assembly member we can then rotate it amongst the clans in Biseni Kingdom and not as it were presently”, the royal father said.
He continued that, “We think that it’s going to be of political, social and economic advantage to us as a clan, but some members of the political class were bent on undoing Owei-wari Community and the clan in general.
“As a community, recently we’ve written to the Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) to develop all the satellite villages and fishing camps to modern cities in Owei-wari and make them economically viable.
“So, by our expectations, some are to have the status of academic cities, industrial cities, etc.”

By: Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa

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You Failed Nigerians, Falana Slams Power Minister

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Human rights lawyer, Femi Falana, SAN, has passed a vote of ‘no confidence’ in the Federal Government, saying that the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, has failed Nigerians.

Falana was reacting to Adelabu’s appearance before the Senate to defend the increase in the electricity tariff and what Nigerians would pay on Monday.

The rights activists also claimed that the move is a policy imposed on the Nigerian government by the International Monetary Funds (IMF) and the World Bank.

Speaking on the Channels TV show on Monday night, Falana said, “The Minister of Power, Mr Adebayo Adelabu has failed to address the question of the illegality of the tariffs.

“Section 116 of the Electricity Act 2023 provides that before an increase can approved and announced, there has to be a public hearing conducted based on the request of the DISCOS to have an increase in the electricity tariffs. That was not done.

“Secondly, neither the minister nor the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission has explained why the impunity that characterised the increase can be allowed.”

Falana also expressed worry over what he described as impunity on the part of the Federal Government and electricity regulatory commission.

““I have already given a notice to the commission because these guys are running Nigeria based on impunity and we can not continue like this. Whence a country claims to operate under the rule of law, all actions of the government, and all actions of individuals must comply with the provisions of relevant laws.

“Secondly, the increase was anchored on the directives of the commission that customers in Band A will have an uninterrupted electricity supply for at least 20 hours a day. That directive has been violated daily. So, on what basis can you justify the increase in the electricity tariffs”, Falana queried.

The human rights lawyer alleged that the Nigerian government is heeding an instruction given to her by the Bretton Wood institutions.

He alleged, “The Honourable Minister of Power is acting the script of the IMF and the World Bank.

“Those two agencies insisted and they continue to insist that the government of Nigeria must remove all subsidies. Fuel subsidy, electricity subsidy and what have you; all social services must be commercialised and priced beyond the reach of the majority of Nigerians.

“So, the government cannot afford to protect the interest of Nigerians where you are implementing the neoliberal policies of the Bretton Wood institutions.”

The Senior Advocate of Nigeria accused Western countries led by the United States of America of double standards.

According to him, they subsidize agriculture, energy, and fuel and offer grants and loans to indigent students while they advise the Nigerian government against doing the same for its citizens.

Following the outrage that greeted the announcement of the tariff increase, Adelabu explained that the action would not affect everyone using electricity as only Band A customers who get about 20 hours of electricity are affected by the hike.

Falana, however, insisted that neither the minister nor the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has justified the tariff increase.

The senior lawyer said that Nigerian law gives no room for discrimination against customers by grading them in different bands.

He insisted that the government cannot ask Nigerians to pay differently for the same product even when what has been consistently served to them is darkness.

Following the outrage over the hike, Adelabu on Monday appeared at a one-day investigative hearing on the need to halt the increase in electricity tariff by eleven successor electricity distribution companies amid the biting economic situation in Nigeria.

However, Falana said that nothing will come out of the probe by the Senate.

He advised that the matter has to be taken to court so that the minister and the Attorney General of the Federation can defend the move.

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1.4m UTME Candidates Scored Below 200  -JAMB 

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The Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) on Monday, released the results of the 2024 Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination, showing that 1,402,490 candidates out of  1,842,464 failed to score 200 out of 400 marks.

The number of candidates who failed to score half of the possible marks represents 78 per cent of the candidates whose results were released by JAMB.

Giving a breakdown of the results of the 1,842,464 candidates released, the board’s Registrar, Prof. Ishaq Oloyede, noted that, “8,401 candidates scored 300 and above; 77,070 scored 250 and above; 439,974 scored 200 and above while 1,402,490 scored below 200.”

On naming the top scorers for the 2024 UTME, Oloyede said, “It is common knowledge that the Board has, at various times restated its unwillingness to publish the names of its best-performing candidates, as it considers its UTME as only a ranking examination on account of the other parameters that would constitute what would later be considered the minimum admissible score for candidates seeking admission to tertiary institutions.

“Similarly, because of the different variables adopted by respective institutions, it might be downright impossible to arrive at a single or all-encompassing set of parameters for generating a list of candidates with the highest admissible score as gaining admission remains the ultimate goal. Hence, it might be unrealistic or presumptive to say a particular candidate is the highest scorer given the fact that such a candidate may, in the final analysis, not even be admitted.

“However, owing to public demand and to avoid a repeat of the Mmesoma saga as well as provide a guide for those, who may want to award prizes to this set of high-performing candidates, the Board appeals to all concerned to always verify claims by candidates before offering such awards.”

Oloyede also noted that the results of 64,624 out of the 1,904,189, who sat the examination, were withheld by the board and would be subject to investigation.

He noted that though a total of 1,989,668 registered, a total of 80,810 candidates were absent.

“For the 2024 UTME, 1,989,668 candidates registered including those who registered at foreign centres. The Direct Entry registration is still ongoing.

“Out of a total of 1,989,668 registered candidates, 80,810 were absent. A total of 1,904,189 sat the UTME within the six days of the examination.

“The Board is today releasing the results of 1,842,464 candidates. 64,624 results are under investigation for verification, procedural investigation of candidates, Centre-based investigation and alleged examination misconduct”, he said.

Oloyede also said the Board, at the moment, conducts examination in nine foreign centres namely: Abidjan, Ivory Coast; Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Buea, Cameroon; Cotonou, Republic of Benin; London, United Kingdom; Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; and Johannesburg, South Africa.

“The essence of this foreign component of the examination is to market our institutions to the outside world as well as ensuring that our universities reflect the universality of academic traditions, among others. The Board is, currently, fine-tuning arrangements for the conduct of the 2024 UTME in these foreign centres,” he explained.

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