Oil & Energy

Hedge Funds Turn Bearish On Oil, Bullish On Natural Gas

Published

7 months ago

March 17, 2025

Traders have not been this bearish on oil in months or so bullish on United States natural gas in years.
The latest data on money managers’ positioning in the WTI and Brent crude and U.S. natural gas futures showed two contrasting trends—speculators are betting that oil prices would remain low or go even lower while increasing the bets that natural gas prices would continue marching higher.
So far this year, geopolitical and supply and demand factors have been increasingly bearish for the oil price outlook and increasingly bullish for natural gas prices.
In the oil market, hedge funds and other portfolio managers have been slashing their bullish bets since the end of January, when the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil trade were the primary bullish driver of managed money to bet on a tightening market.
With U.S. President, Donald Trump, now in office, the sentiment has quickly soured amid the president’s insistence on lower oil prices, his efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine, and – most of all – the enormous uncertainty about on-and-off tariffs and tariff threats and their potential impact on the American economy.
As a result, market participants are preparing for lower oil prices, even amid expectations of declining oil supply from Iran and Venezuela due to President Trump’s hawkish policy toward these OPEC producers.
Speaking of OPEC, the wider OPEC+ group has just said it would begin increasing supply as of April, adding further downward pressure on prices.
Faced with all these bearish drivers, money managers have been reducing their bullish bets on crude oil futures, with the U.S. WTI Crude hitting the lowest net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – in 15 years at the end of February.
In the week to March 4, the latest reporting week with data released on March 7, speculators bought WTI amid a major selloff in all other commodities except for U.S. natural gas.
The net long in WTI rebounded from the 15-year low, but it wasn’t because the market suddenly started betting on higher prices going forward. The rise in WTI buying and the net long was the result of short covering in the U.S. crude futures contract.
In Brent, hedge funds cut their bullish-only bets in the week to March 4 for the biggest decline in longs since July 2024.
Unlike in crude oil, money managers have become increasingly bullish on U.S. natural gas after inventories dipped this winter to below the five-year average as demand surged in the coldest winter for six years.
The net long in natural gas further swelled in the week to March 4, as the number of new bullish bets was four times higher than the new short positions.
“Natural gas continues to benefit from rising demand, both domestically in the US and towards exports via LNG,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said, commenting on the latest Commitment of Traders report.
At the start of the winter heating season in November, U.S. natural gas inventories were higher than average for the time of the year as America entered the season with stocks at their highest level since 2016.
These stocks, however, were quickly depleted during the coldest winter for six years, with demand for space heating and power generation soaring. A month before the end of the winter heating season, U.S. natural gas inventories have now slumped to below the five-year average and well below the levels from the same time in 2024, at the end of a mild winter.
The lower inventories and the higher demand – both for domestic consumption and LNG exports – have pushed prices higher, encouraging producers to boost gas output this year. Traders bet that prices will go even higher as demand from LNG plants is set to accelerate with the ramp-up of new U.S. export plants.
Paraskova writes for Oilprice.com.

By: Tsvetana Paraskova

Oil & Energy

Reps C’mitee Moves To Resolve Dangote, NUPENG Dispute

Published

3 days ago

September 29, 2025

The Tide

The House of Representative on Petroleum Resources (downstream), has pledged to intervene in the ongoing dispute between Dangote Refinery and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), warning that mishandling the issue could destabilize the downstream sector.

Chairman of the Committee, Ikenga Imo Ugochinyere, gave the assurance at the close of a three-day retreat, in Lagos, at the Weekend.

Ugochinyere noted that while Dangote and NUPENG signed a Memorandum of Understanding on September 9 to strengthen workers’ right to unionise, fresh disagreements have since emerged.

He stated that the committee had received multiple submissions from stakeholders adding that it would act in the best interest of both parties.

“If the issue is not well handled, it will create instability in the downstream sector. We must balance labour issues with economic interests,” he stated.

It would be noted that NUPENG had accused the refinery of intimidation, alleging it ordered truck drivers to remove union stickers before loading. Dangote, however, dismissed the claims describing it as “cheap blackmail.”

He also revealed that the committee has reopened its investigation into NNPC Ltd.’s acquisition of OVH Energy Marketing’s downstream assets and refinery upgrade, following a directive from the House after the initial report was rejected for omitting key facts.

“The investigation is distinct from the previous inquiry carried out. The House, therefore, mandated the Downstream Committee to undertake a fresh investigation—with a clear directive to uncover what truly transpired in the OVH acquisition process”, Ugochinyere said.

With the commencement of the investigation, the committee chairman said the general public is invited to make their input before the lawmakers present their recommendations on the floor of the House.

He directed that those with information and submissions should submit them to the clerk of the downstream committee.

Oil & Energy

Increased Oil and Gas: Stakeholders Urge Expansion Of PINL Scope

Published

3 days ago

September 29, 2025

The Tide

Following the sustained record of increased oil and gas production in recent times, stakeholders from pipeline and crude oil host communities have urged the Federal Government to expand the security contract of Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited (PINL).

The stakeholders who gave the urge while speaking at the September Engagement, held in PortHarcourt, last Thursday, attributed the increased output in oil and gas production to the positive impact of PINL on oil and gas host communities

President-General, Orashi People’s Congress, Emeni Ibe, expressed happiness with PINL saying “Our people which includes Abua/Odual, Ahoada East and West, Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni have asked me to convey their gratitude for regularly holding this stakeholders meeting”.

“Our area is criss-crossed with several oil pipelines and in the campaign against vandalism, we have agreed to partner with the PINL.

“We are calling on the Federal Government to provide more funds to the company. We are pleased with their trainings and their scholarship for our youths. This is what we are expecting and if these things are done, pipeline vandalism will be a thing of the past.

“PINL is changing the narratives in our area so I join others to pass a vote of confidence on PINL”, Ibe said.

Also speaking, an indigene of Soku, community, Ajenkebiokpomaa Orlu, said his people want the federal government to include the community in the scope of job covered by PINL.

“We have been hearing about PINL in Rivers State and other neighboring communities but it’s like a surprise to us because Soku as a major player in the ooo and gas sector, we are not part of their operations. We are supposed to be part of it as major oil bearing community with the largest gas plant in West Africa and other oil facilities.

“I’m here to tell Federal Government, NNPCL and PINL to include Soku community in their scope of job and mostly for the Federal Government to expand PINL’s scope of work in the area to include Soku oilfield.

Speaking with journalists on the sidelines of the engagement, the General Manager, Community Relations and Stakeholders Engagement, Dr. Akpos Mezeh, explained that Soku Tombia, Rumuji, Ogba, Abha, Gbarain are all host to gas lines “and we have engaged workers from those communities to help go secure the lines”.

He expressed hopes that the Federal Government would expedite action in expanding PINL’s contract to cover those areas.

Mezeh stated; “Soku is a major oil and gas host community and by virtue of the fact that our current contract on TNP does not cover Soku, we’ve been able to cover them based on the limited resources we have and so far we’ve been doing wonderfully well there courtesy of the support we get from the community and there has been no incident of vandalism in Soku.

“We are calling on the Federal Government to expedite action on the formalising the expansion that we are already doing to cover the areas outside our primary mandate.

“We have Soku, Tombia, Rumuji, Ogba, Abha, Gbarain which host gas lines and we have engaged workers from those communities to help go secure the lines and so we hope that the Federal Government would expedite action in expanding our contract to cover those areas.

“We have expanded our operations into gas and we are into the sixth month and the results is clear and from the report of NUPRC, gas production has increased.

“We’ve done a lot to ensure that gas facilities are given adequate protection. We have engaged more workers from the communities where gas lines are criss-crossing and although that’s not our primary area of responsibility but we are doing that as a duty call to ensure that we support the Federal Government and that’s why we are calling on the Federal Government to formalise the work that we are already doing”.

Oil & Energy

Digital Technology Key To Nigeria’s Oil, Gas Future

Published

3 days ago

September 29, 2025

The Tide

Experts in the oil and gas industry have said that the adoption of digital technologies would tackle inefficiencies and drive sustainable growth in the energy sector.

The experts made the remark at the 2025 Press Week Lecture and Symposium organised by the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ), News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) Chapel, Lagos,

With the theme of the symposium as ‘Transforming Energy: The Digital Evolution of Oil and Gas’, he gathering drew top industry players, media leaders, traditional rulers, students, and security officials for a wide-ranging dialogue on the future of Nigeria’s most vital industry.

Chairman of the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN), Wole Ogunsanya, highlighted the role of digital solutions across exploration, drilling, production, and other oil services.

Represented by the Vice Chairman, Obi Uzu, Ogunsanya noted that Nigeria’s oil production had risen to about 1.7 million barrels per day and was expected to reach two million barrels soon.

Ogunsanya emphasised that increased production would strengthen the naira and fund key infrastructure projects, such as railway networks connecting Lagos to northern, eastern, and southern Nigeria, without excessive borrowing.

He stressed the importance of using oil revenue to sustain national development rather than relying heavily on loans, which undermine financial independence.

Comparing Nigeria to Norway, Ogunsanya explained how the Nordic country had prudently saved and invested oil earnings into education, infrastructure, and long-term development, in contrast to the nation’s monthly revenue distribution system.

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Executive Secretary of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), Clement Using, represented by the Secretary of the Association, Ms Ogechi Nkwoji, highlighted the urgent need for stakeholders and regulators in the sector to embrace digital technologies.

According to him, digital evolution can boost operational efficiency, reduce costs, enhance safety, and align with sustainability goals.

Isong pointed out that the downstream energy sector forms the backbone of Nigeria’s economy saying “When the downstream system functions well, commerce thrives, hospitals operate, and markets stay open. When it fails, chaos and hardship follow immediately,” he said.

He identified challenges such as price volatility, equipment failures, fuel losses, fraud, and environmental risks, linking them to aging infrastructure, poor record-keeping, and skill gaps.

According to Isong, the solution lies in integrated digital tools such as sensors, automation, analytics, and secure transaction systems to monitor refining, storage, distribution, and retail activities.

He highlighted key technologies including IoT forecourt automation for real-time pump activity and sales tracking, remote pricing and reconciliation systems at retail fuel stations, AI-powered pipeline leak detection, terminal automation for depot operations, digital tank gauging, and predictive maintenance.

NUJ-NAN Chapel Chairman, Yunus Yusuf, urged all stakeholders to leverage digital technology for a more transparent, efficient, and sustainable energy future.

He emphasised deploying digital tools to drive sustainability, empower communities, and reshape Nigeria’s oil and gas landscape.