Politics
2027: El-Rufai, Kwankwaso’s Meeting Spurs Fresh Speculations Against Tinubu
The meeting between former Kaduna State governor, Malam Nasir El-Rufai and the leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, last Thursday, sparked fresh speculations that some northern political bigwigs are plotting a coalition to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
While it wasn’t unusual to see Mallam El-Rufai and Senator Kwankwaso together, preceding events, which had seen many northern political heavyweights turn the Daura home of former President Muhammadu Buhari into a sort of Mecca, have raised eyebrows among political observers.
It would be recalled that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, accompanied by former governors of Sokoto and Adamawa States, Senator Aminu Tambuwal and Jibrilla Bindow, paid a visit to Buhari, which was tagged a Sallah homage. Twenty-four hours after Atiku’s visit, El-Rufai also visited the former president, while a former governor of Borno State, Ali Modu Sheriff, visited a few hours later.
Reacting to this, Senator Shehu Sani, who represented Kaduna Central Senatorial District in the 8th National Assembly, criticised it as an attempt to revive Buhari’s political influence and mobilise support for the 2027 presidential election, cautioning against stirring Arewa sentiment without regard for the potential chaos it could cause.
Analysts believe that with both El-Rufai and Kwankwaso currently having grievances with the President Tinubu-led government, their meeting may be part of a strategic scheme to rally around a formidable candidate to unseat the president in 2027.
While President Tinubu has reportedly made overtures to woo Kwankwaso to the All Progressives Congress (APC), the former Kano governor’s political enmity with his successor and current national chairman of the party, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, is said to be among the obstacles.
It’s believed that Kwankwaso still harbours some misgivings towards President Tinubu over what those close to him called a betrayal of trust. After the 2023 presidential election, it was widely reported that Tinubu had offered Kwankwaso a ministerial position, but this did not materialise when the list was announced.
His recent ordeal with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), involving an alleged N2.5 billion pension fraud and campaign finances, has further complicated their relationship.
The situation is similar with El-Rufai, who many believe was dealt a more embarrassing blow after he was nominated by the president for a cabinet position, but a last-minute security report led to his non-clearance by the National Assembly. His loyalists believe the president might have orchestrated the “embarrassment” to diminish the former Kaduna governor’s political clout.
EL-Rufai’s recent ordeal with his anointed successor, Governor Uba Sani, which has seen the state Assembly indict him in an alleged N432 billion misappropriation of state funds during his tenure from 2015 to 2023, adds to his troubles.
Before his meeting with Kwankwaso last Thursday, El-Rufai had been in the news over 2027 speculations recently. His meeting with some political leaders across different parties in March had fuelled speculations about his future political plans. He had earlier met with the national chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Shehu Musa Gabam, and had another meeting at the Abuja residence of Senator Abubakar Gada, a chieftain of the SDP, and other party leaders.
Also present were Senator Teslim Folarin, the APC gubernatorial candidate for Oyo State in the 2023 general elections, and Senator Nazif Suleiman, a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from Bauchi State, as well as Alhaji Aminu DanAgundi, a political heavyweight and kingmaker in Kano State.
The meeting at Senator Gada’s home came a few days after El-Rufai hosted a gathering at his Abuja residence, which included the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, Kashim Ibrahim-Imam (a chieftain of the APC), Shehu Musa Gabam, and others, for a Ramadan iftar (the breaking of fast).
Some analysts believe that with President Tinubu’s desire to consolidate power before 2027, some aggrieved politicians may be using these meetings to stir the hornet’s nest, while others suggest the president may be wary of taking them lightly, considering how similar meetings led to the formation of the APC in 2014, ending the PDP’s 16-year uninterrupted rule.
Those in the latter category believe that the moves by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to lead a charge for a coalition ahead of the 2027 polls may serve as a launch pad for a major political upset.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) yesterday told the National Assembly that it requires N873.78bn to conduct the 2027 general elections, even as it seeks N171bn to fund its operations in the 2026 fiscal year.
INEC Chairman, Prof Joash Amupitan, made the disclosure while presenting the commission’s 2026 budget proposal and the projected cost for the 2027 general elections before the National Assembly Joint Committee on Electoral Matters in Abuja.
According to Amupitan, the N873.78bn election budget covers the full conduct of national polls in 2027.
An additional N171bn is needed to support INEC’s routine activities in 2026, including bye-elections and off-season elections, the commission stated.
The INEC boss said the proposed election budget does not include a fresh request from the National Youth Service Corps seeking increased allowances for corps members engaged as ad-hoc staff during elections.
He explained that, although the details of specific line items were not exhaustively presented, the almost N1tn election budget is structured across five major components.
“N379.75bn is for operational costs, N92.32bn for administrative costs, N209.21bn for technological costs, N154.91bn for election capital costs and N42.61bn for miscellaneous expenses,” Amupitan said.
The INEC chief noted that the budget was prepared “in line with Section 3(3) of the Electoral Act 2022, which mandates the Commission to prepare its election budget at least one year before the general election.”
On the 2026 fiscal year, Amupitan disclosed that the Ministry of Finance provided an envelope of N140bn, stressing, however, that “INEC is proposing a total expenditure of N171bn.”
The breakdown includes N109bn for personnel costs, N18.7bn for overheads, N42.63bn for election-related activities and N1.4bn for capital expenditure.
He argued that the envelope budgeting system is not suitable for the Commission’s operations, noting that INEC’s activities often require urgent and flexible funding.
Amupitan also identified the lack of a dedicated communications network as a major operational challenge, adding that if the commission develops its own network infrastructure, Nigerians would be in a better position to hold it accountable for any technical glitches.
Speaking at the session, Senator Adams Oshiomhole (APC, Edo North) said external agencies should not dictate the budgeting framework for INEC, given the unique and sensitive nature of its mandate.
He advocated that the envelope budgeting model should be set aside.
He urged the National Assembly to work with INEC’s financial proposal to avoid future instances of possible underfunding.
In the same vein, a member of the House of Representatives from Edo State, Billy Osawaru, called for INEC’s budget to be placed on first-line charge as provided in the Constitution, with funds released in full and on time to enable the Commission to plan early enough for the 2027 general election.
The Joint Committee approved a motion recommending the one-time release of the Commission’s annual budget.
The committee also said it would consider the NYSC’s request for about N32bn to increase allowances for corps members to N125,000 each when engaged for election duties.
The Chairman of the Senate Committee on INEC, Senator Simon Along, assured that the National Assembly would work closely with the Commission to ensure it receives the necessary support for the successful conduct of the 2027 general elections.
Similarly, the Chairman of the House Committee on Electoral Matters, Bayo Balogun, also pledged legislative support, warning INEC to be careful about promises it might be unable to keep.
He recalled that during the 2023 general election, INEC made strong assurances about uploading results to the INEC Result Viewing portal, creating the impression that results could be monitored in real time.
“iREV was not even in the Electoral Act; it was only in INEC regulations. So, be careful how you make promises,” Balogun warned.
The N873.78bn proposed by INEC for next year’s general election is a significant increase from the N313.4bn released to the Commission by the Federal Government for the conduct of the 2023 general election.
In a timetable issued by its National Secretariat in Abuja and signed by the National Organising Secretary, Sulaiman Argungu, the party said the activities were in line with provisions of its constitution guiding the election of party officials across all tiers.
According to the schedule, membership e-registration began on January 31 and ended on February 8, while notices of congresses were dispatched to state and Federal Capital Territory chapters on February 2.
Submission of nomination forms for ward and local government congresses closed on February 9, followed by screening and appeals between February 10 and February 14.
Ward congresses are fixed for February 18, with appeals the following day, while local government congresses will take place on February 21 and appeals on February 23.
At the state level, purchase of forms for state executive positions will run from February 22 to February 25, with screening set for February 27–28 and appeals from March 1–2. State congresses are scheduled for March 3, and appeals on March 4.
Activities leading to zonal congresses and the national convention include purchase and submission of forms between March 12 and March 16, inauguration of screening committees on March 23, and screening of aspirants on March 24. Zonal congresses across the six geo-political zones are slated for March 25, with appeals on March 26.
The party’s national convention will hold from March 27 to March 28.The APC also published fees for expression of interest and nomination forms across the different tiers.
At the ward level, expression of interest costs ?5,000, while nomination forms range from ?15,000 to ?20,000 depending on the position. For local government positions, nomination forms range from ?50,000 to ?100,000 after a ?10,000 expression-of-interest fee.
State executive positions attract ?50,000 for expression of interest, with nomination forms pegged at ?1 million for chairman and ?500,000 for other offices. Zonal offices require ?100,000 expression of interest and ?200,000 for nomination.
For national positions, the fees rise significantly, with expression of interest set at ?100,000. Nomination forms cost ?10 million for national chairman, ?7.5 million for deputy national chairmen and national secretary, ?5 million for other offices, and ?250,000 for National Executive Committee membership.
The party noted that female aspirants, youths and persons living with disabilities would pay only the expression-of-interest fee and 50 per cent of nomination costs. It also clarified that Ekiti, Osun, Rivers states and the FCT are excluded from ward, local government and state congresses, but will participate in electing delegates to the national convention.
Forms are to be completed online after payment verification, with payments directed to designated APC accounts at Zenith Bank and United Bank for Africa.
The congress cycle is expected to determine new party leadership structures ahead of future electoral activities.
The Tide source reports that the committee, reportedly backed by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Chief Nyesom Wike, is making moves to reclaim the Wadata Plaza headquarters months after it was sealed following a violent clash between rival factions of the party.
Senior officers at the FCT Police Command told our source that while they had not received an official briefing, police personnel would be stationed at the secretariat and other key locations to maintain peace.
The Acting National Secretary of the Mohammed-led committee, Sen. Samuel Anyanwu, announced last week that the secretariat would reopen for official activities on Monday (today).
He dismissed claims that ongoing litigation would prevent the reopening, saying, “There are no legal barriers preventing the caretaker committee from resuming work at the party’s headquarters.”
However, the Tanimu Turaki-led National Working Committee (NWC) has fiercely rejected the reopening move, insisting that Sen. Anyanwu and his group remain expelled from the PDP and have no authority to act on its behalf.
Speaking with The Tide source, the committee’s National Publicity Secretary, Ini Ememobong, declared: “They are living in fool’s paradise. The worst form of deceit is self-deceit, where the person knows he is deceiving himself yet continues with gusto.
“Even INEC, which they claim has recognised them, has denied them. They are indulging in a roller coaster of self-deceit.”
Mr Ememobong further revealed that letters had been sent to both the Inspector-General of Police and the FCT Commissioner of Police, stressing that the matter was still in court and warning against any attempt to “resort to self-help.”
“The case pending before Justice Joyce Abdulmalik was instituted by the expelled members. They cannot resort to self-help until judgment is delivered,” he said.
He warned that reopening the secretariat would amount to contempt of court.
A senior officer at the FCT Police Command, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed that officers would be deployed to the area to avert a repeat of the November 19 violence that led to the secretariat’s initial closure.
“The command would not stand by and allow a breakdown of peace and order by the party or anyone else. Definitely, the police will have to be on the ground,” he said.
Another officer added, “There will definitely be men present at the secretariat, but I can’t say the number of police officers that would be deployed.”
When contacted, the FCT Police Public Relations Officer, Josephine Adeh, said she had not been briefed on the planned reopening and declined to comment on whether officers would be deployed.
Asked to confirm whether the secretariat was initially sealed by police, she responded, “Yes,” but refused to say more about the current deployment plans.
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