Opinion
Should The Naira Be Redenominated?
Rumours let loose last month of plans by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to redenominate the Naira which currently is experiencing a free fall.
Though the CBN has come out to refute the rumour as fake, the rumour has generated a flurry of debates among worried Nigerians. The anger of many Nigerians could be understood considering that many are yet to recover from frustrations created, less than a year ago, by CBN’s failure to execute a seamless cashless policy and currency note redesign. The worry of many Nigerians may also be understood in the light of the antecedent of the immediate past administration, in which such rumours often turn out to be real.
In the current confussion, grapevine sources had hinted that the CBN plans a new ‘Strategic Plan for the Naira,’ in which a ‘New Naira’ would be minted, whose value would exchange at a ratio of 1:100 with the old notes. That is, every N100 of the old notes to be equivalent to N1 of the new, with a prospect of restoring 1 kobo (1k), 2k, 5k, 10k, 20k and 50k coins to replace old N1, N2, N5, N10, N20 and N50 notes, respectively. The rumours gave the starting date as January, 2024, with a transition period of 5 months, by which time the old notes would have been withdrawn. The rumours also gave CBN’s reasons for the exercise to, among other things, be to better anchor inflation expectations, strengthen public confidence in the Naira, and make for easier conversion to other major currencies.
But in its refutation the nation’s apex bank which acknowledged that its ‘attention has been drawn to the wide circulation of a text message suggesting that the bank plans to redenominate the country’s legal tender, the Naira, with effect from January 2024′, said, “We are concerned that this narrative, which we had refuted before now, appears to be gaining traction with several debates on the implication of such a policy for the Nigerian economy.
“We wish to reiterate that the contents of the message are misleading. The authors of the message, in their mischief, modified text taken from an old policy move by a previous CBN Governor in 2007 to make it appear recent.
“To avoid doubt, there is currently no plan by the Bank to restructure and redenominate the Naira. Whilst the Bank may be considering reforms, such are subject to laid down procedures in line with the provisions of the CBN Act, 2007.
“The public is hereby advised to ignore the news report, as it is speculative and calculated to cause panic in the polity.”
While relishing the relief of CBN’s reassurance, it is pertinent to explore the implications of such a policy, however it may have been ill-conceived.
There is no doubts that the value of the Naira is in painful decline as a general reflection of our glum economy. The big question is, Can redenominating the Naira, save it from perpetual slide, or improve our economy? Changing the scale of a falling curve definitely will not halt its trend. Rather, improving on parameters that control a trajectory can, and do swing a bad trajectory towards a desirable direction.
Which brings us to the complex question of, what influences the economy of a country, and by extension, the value of its currency?
A country’s economy is a general reflection of its domestic productivity, which term puts into consideration the efficient use of the factors of production, as well as the efficiency of materials handling in the distribution of raw resources, goods and services within that country. Efficiency has its ramifications in the availability of production machinery, skilled workforce and managerial prowess in the conversion of raw materials into higher value goods, the effectiveness of distribution infrastructure networks that aid commerce, and the percentage of working-age population that has employment opportunity.
An efficient economy produces goods beyond the needs of its domestic demands to create surplus which it trades with outside economies.
Economies which do not produce enough to serve its domestic needs would have to rely upon external supplies. Considering that foreign supplies are acquired in the currency of the supplying country, purchasers of foreign goods must first acquire the foreign currency to enable transaction. In the usual interplay of demand and supply forces, currencies with higher demands are acquired at higher premiums, leading to their appreciation against others.
Where there are shortages in supply, either by deliberate restriction or otherwise, plenty money pursues scarce supply leading to inflation. This is the fundamental law of demand and supply.
In Nigeria’s unproductive economy of over 200 million population, domestic supplies are in dire shortage worsened by supply disruptions from Eastern Europe, leading to biting inflation. Because there is pressure of demand, plenty Naira runs after both goods and the US Dollar, an international legal tender, leading to hyper-inflation that is pushing up the value of the Dollar, while conversely, depreciating the Naira.
The current windfall in the nation’s only production advantage – the petroleum industry, following the war in Ukraine, which would have injected much Dollar into Nigeria’s economy to cushion the downward pressure on the Naira, is being missed due to poor production data, occasioned by coordinated oil thefts. Parts of remaining revenue looted through official malpractices, find its way towards exchange black markets, to push further on the Dollar, as unscrupulous elements try to launder stolen commonwealth.
Redenominating the Naira in this scenario, in the guise of shoring up its value can only make things worse, considering that even minting is also outsourced and a huge amount of Naira would be exchanged to produce new currency notes and spent to dispose the old notes, among other challenges.
An effective solution for Nigeria’s economic woes can only be achieved through concerted efforts to sustain factors that increase productivity in the country. Nigeria should at least be able to provide its basic needs using available natural resources, and do so efficiently, if government straightens-up against corruption, speeds up investments that clear-off bottlenecks in the distribution infrastructure networks, and pursues policies that drive investments in production infrastructure, especially power, mechinery, and skills development.
Government should also boost investors’ confidence in our economy by ensuring security and by rejigging the financial policy frameworks, especially on multiple taxation and profit repatriations. Strategies that improve productivity would spiral a chain reaction that creates more employment for greater productivity towards producing surplus.
Then would the Naira have its place of pride. The onus lies on Nigeria’s policy makers to turn the ugly economic trends around, through the application of tested and trusted economic tools, rather than tinker with disaster-prone currency redenomination, in a country where psychological stress is already reaching a threshold. Which is why the news of CBN’a refutation is quite a relief.
By: Joseph Nwankwor
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Empowering Youth Through Agriculture
Quote:”While job seeking youths should continuously acquire skills and explore opportunities within their immediate environment as well as in the global space through the use of digital platforms, government, corporate/ multinational organizations or the organised private sector should generate skills and provide the enabling environment for skills acquisition, through adequate funding and resettlement packages that will provide sustainable economic life for beneficiaries”.
The Governor of Rivers State, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, recently urged youths in the Rivers State to take advantage of the vast opportunities available to become employers of labour and contribute meaningfully to the growth and development of the State. Governor Fubara noted that global trends increasingly favour entrepreneurship and innovation, and said that youths in Rivers State must not be left behind in harnessing these opportunities. The Governor, represented by the Secretary to the State Government, Dr Benibo Anabraba, made this known while declaring open the 2026 Job Fair organised by the Rivers State Government in partnership with the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) in Port Harcourt. The Governor acknowledged the responsibility of government to create jobs for its teeming youth population but noted that it is unrealistic to absorb all job seekers into the civil service.
“As a government, we recognise our duty to provide employment opportunities for our teeming youths. However, we also understand that not all youths can be accommodated within the civil service. This underscores the need to encourage entrepreneurship across diverse sectors and to partner with other stakeholders, including the youths themselves, so they can transition from being job seekers to employers of labour,” he said. It is necessary to State that Governor Fubara has not only stated the obvious but was committed to drive youth entrepreneurship towards their self-reliance and the economic development of the State It is not news that developed economies of the world are skilled driven economies. The private sector also remains the highest employer of labour in private sector driven or capitalist economy though it is also the responsibility of government to create job opportunities for the teeming unemployed youth population in Nigeria which has the highest youth unemployed population in the subSahara Africa.
The lack of job opportunities, caused partly by the Federal Government’s apathy to job creation, the lack of adequate supervision of job opportunities economic programmes, lack of employable skills by many youths in the country have conspired to heighten the attendant challenges of unemployment. The challenges which include, “Japa” syndrome (travelling abroad for greener pastures), that characterises the labour market and poses threat to the nation’s critical sector, especially the health and medical sector; astronomical increase in the crime rate and a loss of interest in education. While job seeking youths should continuously acquire skills and explore opportunities within their immediate environment as well as in the global space through the use of digital platforms, government, corporate/ multinational organizations or the organised private sector should generate skills and provide the enabling environment for skills acquisition, through adequate funding and resettlement packages that will provide sustainable economic life for beneficiaries.
While commending the Rivers State Government led by the People First Governor, Sir Siminilayi Fubara for initiating “various training and capacity-building programmes in areas such as ICT and artificial intelligence, oil and gas, maritime, and the blue economy, among others”, it is note-worthy that the labour market is dynamic and shaped by industry-specific demands, technological advancements, management practices and other emerging factors. So another sector the Federal, State and Local Governments should encourage youths to explore and harness the abounding potentials, in my considered view, is Agriculture. Agriculture remains a veritable solution to hunger, inflation, and food Insecurity that ravages the country. No doubt, the Nigeria’s arable landmass is grossly under-utilised and under-exploited.
In recent times, Nigerians have voiced their concerns about the persistent challenges of hunger, inflation, and the general increase in prices of goods and commodities. These issues not only affect the livelihoods of individuals and families but also pose significant threats to food security and economic stability in the country. The United Nations estimated that more than 25 million people in Nigeria could face food insecurity this year—a 47% increase from the 17 million people already at risk of going hungry, mainly due to ongoing insecurity, protracted conflicts, and rising food prices. An estimated two million children under five are likely to be pushed into acute malnutrition. (Reliefweb ,2023). In response, Nigeria declared a state of emergency on food insecurity, recognizing the urgent need to tackle food shortages, stabilize rising prices, and protect farmers facing violence from armed groups. However, without addressing the insecurity challenges, farmers will continue to struggle to feed their families and boost food production.
In addition, parts of northwest and northeast Nigeria have experienced changes in rainfall patterns making less water available for crop production. These climate change events have resulted in droughts and land degradations; presenting challenges for local communities and leading to significant impact on food security. In light of these daunting challenges, it is imperative to address the intricate interplay between insecurity and agricultural productivity. Nigeria can work toward ensuring food security, reducing poverty, and fostering sustainable economic growth in its vital agricultural sector. In this article, I suggest solutions that could enhance agricultural production and ensure that every state scales its agricultural production to a level where it can cater to 60% of the population.
This is feasible and achievable if government at all levels are intentional driving the development of the agricultural sector which was the major economic mainstay of the Country before the crude oil was struck in commercial quantity and consequently became the nation’s monolithic revenue source. Government should revive the moribund Graduate Farmers Scheme and the Rivers State School-to-Land agricultural programmes to operate concurrently with other skills acquisition and development programmes. There should be a consideration for investment in mechanized farming and arable land allocation. State and local governments should play a pivotal role in promoting mechanized farming and providing arable land for farming in communities. Additionally, allocating arable land enables small holder farmers to expand their operations and contribute to food security at the grassroots level.
Nigeria can unlock the potential of its agricultural sector to address the pressing needs of its population and achieve sustainable development. Policymakers and stakeholders must heed Akande’s recommendations and take decisive action to ensure a food-secure future for all Nigerians.
By: Igbiki Benibo
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