The Population and Housing Census, which was initially scheduled for May 3–7, 2023, has been post-
poned indefinitely by President Muhammadu Buhari, following deliberations with select Ministers and Nasir Isa-Kwarra, Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC). The resolve to delay the headcount was taken to stem prevailing circumstances that indicated an impending national crisis. This decision has transferred the responsibility to the President’s successor, hence, averting a potentially disastrous situation.
Despite the unwavering commitment of the NPC to execute the national project, it became apparent that both the agency and the relevant government bodies, as well as the citizens, were ill-prepared. It is a clear sign of astuteness for President Buhari to have thought it wise to avoid the risk of escalating this already precarious situation.
A new census for development planning was declared by Buhari, who asserted that the nation needed an updated one, given that the previous one took place 17 years ago in 2006. Nonetheless, the President did not specifically reference any potential hurdles that may be encountered in this undertaking. It is anticipated that the NPC will assume responsibility for this task.
In the editorial of this newspaper dated July 20, 2022, it was observed that the scheduled census for April 2023 was poorly timed owing to its proximity to the general election and the prevailing security challenges in the country. The census result could be negatively affected by various situations. Even the NPC’s pre-census tests were hindered in certain areas as a result of safety concerns in some states.
We had stated that if the current administration failed to conduct the census exercise at least a year before the end of their tenure, there would be no justification for rushing to conduct it just two months before their exit. As predicted, the postponement of the census and the reasons given have proven our argument to be correct.
Similarly, many stakeholders criticised the scheduled May date and urged for its delay because of poor timing. The decision to hold both nationwide elections and the census in an election year, with the challenges posed by their conduct and outcomes in the country, was deemed as notably imprudent. The Buhari’s administration has been berated for its apparent preoccupation with carrying out certain tasks instead of delegating them to the succeeding government.
The proposal has failed to garner inspiration among the Nigerian populace, given the plethora of intricate issues that surround it. The post-general election aftermath has thrown the country into a state of disarray, with stakeholders raising grave concerns about the conduct and outcome of the presidential, governorship, National Assembly and State Assembly elections.
Nigerians are still ruing their losses from the cash crunch that prevented them from accessing their money, causing widespread suffering. The police are struggling to contain the resulting unrest, and all law enforcement agencies are overwhelmed in their efforts to combat criminal activity, including insurgency, terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, armed robbery, cultism, and other crimes.
Many Nigerians across the country face daily attacks, eventuating in deaths, injuries, and kidnappings. These crimes are often motivated by purely criminal motives, leaving victims entirely on their own. The police are overburdened and often choose to ignore these incidents, only intervening when a high-profile individual is involved. This leaves some Nigerians at the mercy of their criminal abductors, relying solely on their relatives to assuage the situation.
Therefore, the NPC’s initial insistence on conducting a census during this period was over-ambitious and laid the foundation for another controversial headcount. Shoddy preparation typically leads to shoddy outcomes, as Nigerians have seen in past national assignments. It was clear that the commission was planning to fail.
For a successful national census, adequate preparation is crucial to ensure desired results and minimal hitches. The politicisation of the headcount has made it one of the thorniest issues in the country. However, if properly executed, the exercise can correct previous mistakes and provide a reliable population figure. A convivial environment must be created to achieve this.
Conducting a credible census requires total buy-in from all segments of the country. It should be a collaborative national assignment with the federal, the 36 states, and the 774 local government areas. Massive publicity and awareness campaigns from the grassroots upwards are required to ensure the success of the census. The NPC should return to the drawing board to guarantee that all obligatory steps are taken to achieve a credible headcount.
The task at hand poses seminal challenges. The expanse of the country’s road network is vast, with only a third of it being paved. The unpaved roads are prone to flooding, deterioration, and drought, making it arduous for census officials to reach all regions of the country promptly. Meticulous planning is necessary to overcome the major obstacles of funding and logistics.
The funding for the initiative needs to be properly addressed since the government’s proposal to establish a collective fund under the auspices of the United Nations Population Fund has encountered setbacks. Out of the N869 billion budgeted, only N291.5 billion has been disbursed, while another N327.2 billion approved has not yet been transferred to the NPC.
Buhari’s decision to postpone the headcount was judicious. It is incumbent upon the President-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to schedule a new date and implement measures to improve the process. The forthcoming count should be technology-driven, accurate, and reliable to gain the support of Nigerians.