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Nigeria At Point Of No Return -US Report
Nigeria is at the point of no return. So says the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and the Harvard Kennedy School in the United States.
Both organisations reiterated that the country has showed all the signs of a failed nation.
The organisations made the disclosure in a research finding it released through its senior fellow and former US Ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell and Mr Robert Rotberg, who is the founding director, Harvard Kennedy School’s Programme on Intrastate Conflict and president emeritus, World Peace Foundation.
They both said that Nigeria is currently in its final phase, from which it would eventually collapse.
The organisation said their position was not based on emotion or the use of fancy words to describe the situation, but on “a body of political theory developed at the turn of this century and elaborated upon, case by case, ever since.”
Its report added that Nigeria has since moved from being a weak state to “a fully failed state,” having manifested all the signs of a failed country, including the inability of government to protect the citizens, large scale violence and festering insurgency
According to them, President Muhammadu Buhari admitting that the Federal Government has lost control of the situation is the first step towards the restoration of stability. The duo warned that Nigeria’s failure as a state comes with negative consequences for peace and security in West Africa sub-region as well as Europe and the US.
“Nigeria has long teetered on the precipice of failure. But now, unable to keep its citizens safe and secure, Nigeria has become a fully failed state of critical geopolitical concern. Its failure matters because the peace and prosperity of Africa and preventing the spread of disorder and militancy around the globe depend on a stronger Nigeria.
“Its economy is usually estimated to be Africa’s largest or second largest, after South Africa. Long West Africa’s hegemon, Nigeria played a positive role in promoting African peace and security. With state failure, it can no longer sustain that vocation, and no replacement is in sight. Its security challenges are already destabilising the West African region in the face of resurgent jihadism, making the battles of the Sahel that much more difficult to contain.
“And spillover from Nigeria’s failures ultimately affect the security of Europe and the United States. Indeed, thoughtful Nigerians over the past decade have debated, often fervently, whether their state has failed. Increasingly, their consensus is that it has,” the report published on foreignpolicy.com, said.
The report further says, “There are four kinds of nations: the strong, the weak, the failed, and the collapsed. According to previously published research estimates, of the 193 members of the United Nations, 60 or 70 are strong—the nations that rank highest in the listings of Freedom House, the human rights reports of the U. S. State Department, the anti corruption perception indices of Transparency International, and so on.
“There are three places that should be considered collapsed: Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen. Eighty or 90 U.N. members are weak. Weakness consists of providing many, but not all, of essential public goods, the most important of which are security and safety. If citizens are not secure from harm within national borders, governments cannot deliver good governance (the essential services that citizens expect) to their constituents.
“Possibly a dozen or so states are failed, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, and Myanmar. Each lacks security, is unsafe, has weak rules of law, is corrupt, limits political participation and voice, discriminates within its borders against various classes and kinds of citizens, and provides educational and medical services sparingly. Most of all, failed states are violent.
“All failed states harbor some form of violent internal strife, such as civil war or insurgency. Nigeria now confronts six or more internal insurrections and the inability of the Nigerian state to provide peace and stability to its people has tipped a hitherto very weak state into failure. According to political theory, the government’s inability to thwart the Boko Haram insurgency is enough to diagnose Nigeria as a failed state. But there are many more symptoms.
“At a bare minimum, citizens expect their states to keep them secure from external attack and to keep them safe within their borders. The bargain that subjects long ago made with their sovereigns was being kept from harm in exchange for allegiance and taxation. When that quid pro quo breaks down, a state loses its coherence, its social fabric disintegrates, and warring factions subvert the social contract that should provide the fundamental foundation of the state.
“Nigeria now appears to have reached the point of no return. Indeed, few parts of Nigeria are today fully safe,” the report further added.
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Nigeria Exceeds OPEC Quota As Production Hits 11-month High
Nigeria’s crude oil production has surged to an 11-month high in May, 2026, with the country exceeding its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota.
The average crude oil production recorded during the month of May represents 102 per cent of Nigeria’s 1.5mbpd of production quota allocated by the OPEC.
The production report released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), yesterday, disclosed that Nigeria’s oil production averages 1,530,354 barrels of crude oil and 170,446 barrels of condensates per day (bpd).
According to the report, this brings the total combined production to 1, 700, 800 barrels per day and consolidating Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer.
The report said the production performance during the review period remained robust, with combined crude oil and condensate output ranging between a low of 1.51 million bpd and a peak of 1.86 million bpd.
It said the May 2026 production figures represented the highest recorded by Nigeria since July 2025, when output surged to 1,712,282.
“In strict crude oil terms (excluding condensates), the 1.53 million barrels recorded in May 2026 represents the highest Nigeria has witnessed since January 2025 when crude oil production hit 1.538mbpd.
“The latest crude oil production statistics thus represents a 15-month high on a month on month basis, production rose by 2.77 per cent in May 2026 as against 1.48mbpd in April,” it said.
The report said the broader production trend over the last five months had also remained positive.
It said combined crude oil and condensate output increased from 1.48 million bpd in February to 1.54 million bpd in March, 1.66 million bpd in April, and then 1.7 million bpd in May, underscoring sustained growth in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon production levels.
According to the report, among production streams, Bonny Terminal led the pack with a total blend of 293,870 bpd, closely followed by Forcados Terminal at 289,900 bpd, Qua Iboe ranked third with 173,360 bpd, while Escravos Oil Terminal contributed 135,470 bpd.
It said the Odudu (Amenam Blend) completed the top five production streams, accounting for 63,250 bpd during the month under review.
The NUPRC attributes the rise in production to a sustained positive momentum as operations remained stable throughout the reporting period with no significant pipeline or facility outages recorded.
Additionally, all previously scheduled turnaround maintenance activities had been successfully completed, contributing to improved operational reliability and production efficiency.
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Reps Pass State Police Bill
The House of Representatives, yesterday passed a landmark constitutional amendment bill to establish state police nationwide, marking a significant milestone in Nigeria’s decades-long debate over decentralising policing and strengthening internal security.
The bill, titled “A Bill for an Act to Alter the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 to Provide for the Establishment of State Police and for Related Matters (Sixth Alteration) Bill, 2026,” was approved during consideration at the Committee of the Whole, presided over by Speaker of the House, Rt. Hon. Tajudeen Abbas.
Voting commenced after the Deputy Speaker and Chairman of the House Committee on Constitution Review, Hon. Benjamin Kalu, presented the report on the proposal and canvassed support from lawmakers, stressing the need for a more decentralised policing framework to effectively address the country’s growing security challenges.
The exercise was conducted manually, with members raising their hands to indicate their positions. At the end of the voting, 289 lawmakers voted in support of the bill, one member abstained, while none voted against it, reflecting overwhelming bipartisan backing for the far-reaching reform.
The proposed amendment seeks to fundamentally restructure Nigeria’s policing architecture by creating both Federal and State Police formations.
One of the bill’s key provisions amends Section 214 of the 1999 Constitution to formally establish the Federal Police and the State Police. Under the proposal, the National Assembly would be empowered to prescribe the structure, organisation, administration and powers of the Federal Police, while also providing the legal framework and minimum standards for the establishment and operation of state police services.
The bill stipulates that no state police formation shall commence operations unless it is established by a law enacted by the relevant State House of Assembly and certified as complying with national minimum standards prescribed by an Act of the National Assembly.
It further provides that until a state police force becomes operational, the Federal Police shall continue to exercise policing powers and responsibilities within such states.
In a bid to preserve the autonomy of state police formations and prevent undue federal interference, the bill limits federal intervention in states’ internal security affairs. Under the proposal, the Federal Police may intervene only where there is a complete breakdown of law and order, upon the request of a governor or where a state police force becomes unable to function due to administrative, financial or other operational challenges.
The amendment also proposes significant changes to the police’s appointment and command structure.
Under the amended Section 215 of the Constitution, the Inspector-General of Police would be appointed by the President on the advice of the Nigeria Police Council from among serving members of the Federal Police, subject to confirmation by the National Assembly.
Similarly, a State Commissioner of Police would be appointed by a governor on the advice of the Nigeria Police Council from among serving officers of the State Police, subject to confirmation by the respective State House of Assembly.
The bill empowers governors to issue lawful directives to State Commissioners of Police on matters relating to public safety and the maintenance of law and order. However, where a commissioner considers such directives unlawful or inconsistent with accepted policing standards, the matter may be referred to the Nigeria Police Council, whose decision shall be final.
The proposal also amends Section 84 of the Constitution by replacing references to the “National Police Council and the Federal Police Service Commission” with the “Nigeria Police Council and the Police Service Commission.”
The passage of the bill by the House represents one of the most far-reaching security reforms contemplated since the return to democratic rule in 1999 and is expected to rekindle nationwide debate on issues relating to funding, accountability, operational control and safeguards against abuse.
With the House’s approval, the constitutional amendment bill will now proceed to the Senate for concurrence. Thereafter, it must secure the endorsement of at least two-thirds of the State Houses of Assembly and receive presidential assent before becoming part of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
If eventually enacted, the legislation would usher in a new era of multi-layered policing in Nigeria and could redefine the country’s approach to tackling banditry, terrorism, kidnapping and other forms of violent crimes through a more localised security architecture.
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FG Declares Today Public Holiday To Mark Democracy Day
The Federal Government has declared today, public holiday to commemorate Nigeria’s 27 years of unbroken democratic rule.
This is contained in a statement in Abuja, by the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Interior, Magdalene Ajani.
Ajani said that the Minister of Interior, Dr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, made the declaration on behalf of the federal government.
Tunji-Ojo reaffirmed the federal government’s commitment to the preservation of democratic ideals, rule of law, transparency, accountability and inclusive governance.
He assured that the ministry in collaboration with relevant security agencies woulsd continue to take appropriate measures in maintaining and strengthening Nigeria’s internal security.
The minister noted that a secured and stable environment was essential to democracy and national development.
He urged Nigerians to see the holiday as an opportunity for civic reflection.
“As we mark this historic day, every Nigerian is encouraged to remain law-abiding, uphold the institutions that sustain our democracy, and remember that the strength of any democracy lies ultimately in the character of its citizens,” he said.
He also said that June 12 every year remained a significant day in Nigeria’s history in honour of the courage, resilience and sacrifices of Nigerians whose efforts made democratic governance possible.
“Their legacies continue to inform the values and responsibilities of the Nigerian state,”Tunji-Ojo added.
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