Opinion
Current Scramble For Africa
One possible danger that Nigeria can slide into is the mixture of politics with religion. The scourge of the Black race historically, came from Arab and White imperialism, using religion as an instrument. Also, nations that mix politics with religion tend to slide into fascism under the guise of theocracy. Abuses of power under various guises came under some control through the practice of genuine democracy.
Modern African countries emerged from colonial experiences, but they still remain hunting grounds in the hands of their former enslavers. Politically and economically many developing nations are rarely stable or independent largely because they are subject to various forms of exploitations by the big and blustering powers. Unfortunately, little attention is paid to the strategies and global power play that have kept many developing nations in the situations which they find themselves.
Friday, June 13, 2008, a letter by Ethnic Nationalities Movement, written on its behalf by S. A. Asemota, SAN, was published in The Guardian newspaper. Although the letter bore the title: ‘Abacha and Nigeria, issues pointing towards a possible re-colonisation of Nigeria’ were raised by the Ethnic Nationalities Movement. The letter made reference to The Tide’s on-line publication of April 19, 2008, by Matthew Paris, titled: The New Scramble For Africa Begins … The author of that on-line publication gave some hints about how the re-colonisation of Africa would come about. There were specific mentions of military involvement and facilitation of the process not in Berlin but Nigeria.
Factors pointing towards military involvement in politics as a prelude to recolonisation of African nations via the hiring or installation of “Black gangstar government”, were mentioned by Matthew Paris. China was specifically mentioned as a possible new power in the current scramble for Africa. The concern of the Ethnic Nationalities Movement was largely that the era of military rule in Nigeria provided opportunities for the armed and security forces to be compromised and structured to serve specific interests.
While some military Generals from definite geo-political zones came into power through non-legal or democratic strategy, General Maman Vatsa who took similar step was fit enough to be executed as a coup-plotter. An “Okar Coup” whose grouse was that the Nigerian military was compromised and meant to serve some hidden agenda, was halted with venom. Matters arising from “Abacha Loot” and attempts by three military heads of state to exonerate General Abacha of any wrong-doing and launder his image, featured in the grouse of the Ethnic Nationalities Movement.
The quick and brutal execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa and his other Ogoni co-agitators for a fair deal in the Nigerian environmental/oil politics featured in the grouse of the Ethnic Nationalities Movement. So also “the sacking of Zaki Biam, Odi, Obiaruku massacre and destruction of Ijaw villages”. Also, for a leading public figure to be quoted as making statements as: “Boko Haram members should be pampered but not killed, for it is injustice to kill them”; “Muslims should only vote those who will promote Islam”, evoke pains and suspicion.
The Ethnic Nationalities Movement lamented that “gangsterism has permeated all the facets of our public life”, a phenomenon brought about by military rule and culture. The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) must also be praised for striving to see that power is not abused. Recently SERAP called on the federal government to rescind the fine of N5 million imposed on Nigeria Info 99.3 FM radio station, over the reported comment of a former Deputy Governor of the CBN, Obadiah Mailafia.
A number of well-meaning Nigerians see the Hate Speech law as a deliberate effort to cow the Nigerian populace and as a prelude to some coming surprises. Among the apprehensions of the Nigerian populace are the privatization of public resources and facilities including sea ports in the Southern part of Nigeria, the nation’s security apparatus and the nature of the deeds in the NDDC. Scandals associated with the allocations of oil blocks, attitudes towards oil-producing states and NDDC serving as a national milk-cow, many people have wondered if there is transparency in Nigeria.
A more worrisome aspect of the apprehensions of ordinary Nigerians is the borrowings and growing indebtedness of Nigeria to external lenders, even in the midst of the wealth accruing from oil and gas resources. The fact that China has been making some in-road into African nations is not in doubt, neither is it a new phenomenon. What is enigmatic is China’s attitude towards loans issues to African nations. Ethiopia is said to be heavily indebted to China, with little prospect of being able to repay such loan. Now Nigeria is about to take a loan from China too.
Already the controversy brewing around that loan from China can hardly be swept aside as irrelevant. That loan, supposed to be used for construction of rail lines and improved transportation in Nigeria, can hardly be repaid by the current government involved in the negotiation of the loan. Therefore, the future of Nigeria comes into question, especially when coupled with questions of how past loans and projects had been managed. Corrupt practices have far more tentacles than money changing hands in dark deals.
Nigerians should recognize the fact that foreign nations and entrepreneurs or business partners are clever and smooth operators. Nigeria as a nation is seen by foreign powers as a preying ground, fit to be sucked dry, while oil and gas last. People in power and the nature of Nigeria’s politics tend to create room for internal and external predators to place the collective interest of common Nigerians in jeopardy. International politics, trades, protocols and partnership are deep in shark-infested waters where fair can be foul and foul fair.
Nigerians should also recognise the fact that religion and economics are ready instruments in political dirty games. Whether our leaders know this fact or not, Nigeria is a nation known to be easily torn apart, using ethnic, religious and economic traps as strategies. Mutual distrust and disunity are used by external predators to recolonise a nation, via internally installed representatives or cabals who are usually smooth but faceless operators. Or, are there no such in Nigeria?
Dr. Amirize is a retired lecturer in the Rivers State University, Port Harcourt.
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo