Opinion
El-Rufai’s Wolf Cry For Igbos
As the 2019 general elections draw closer, politicians would want to utilize all available resources and strategies at their disposal to capture their prey, the vulnerable electorate. As a strategic means towards winning elections, enemies would suddenly become friends just to accomplish their aims. After all, in politics, there is no permanent friends, no permanent enemies, but interests.
The South East geo-political zone is visibly shortchanged in all ramifications; infrastructural development, participation in decision making, federal presence and security of lives and properties. Evidently, since after the civil war which ended merely in the field, the war remains intensive in the minds of many Nigerians leading to chronic ethnic hate, religious hurly-burly and marginalization, among others.
Despite the ill-treatment against the Igbos, the South East remains committed to nation building particularly through radical investment drives across the country and extension of hands of fellowship to non indigenes.
For instance, Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu appointed a northerner in his government while serving as the governor of Abia State. Similarly, Owelle Rochas Okorocha of Imo State overwhelmingly extended hands of friendship to the northerners in the state and provided them adequate protection.
Without a doubt, the South East, as attested to by the Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, is synonymous with marginalization since independence in 1960. Unfortunately, the same South East people were recently butchered mercilessly in Kaduna under the watch of Governor el-Rufai without any condemnation of the heinous crimes against humanity. Igbos have been targets of attacks in the north for several years, some in churches, houses and at business areas. Even young graduates on National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) scheme posted to the north were not spared, yet the new patriot feeling bad for the Igbos never condemned these attacks.
Without mincing words, el-Rufai owes the people of the South East geo-political zone unreserved apologies for all the innocent bloods of their relatives that have been wasted in his state and the north at large by his tribesmen before he could cry wolf over the lopsided appointment of the Federal government against the Igbos. To swiftly lament on the media against the marginalization of the Igbos by the Buhari administration, rather than draw the attention of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) to the ill treatments against the Igbos is political with sinister motives.
For the records, el-Rufai cannot overnight become aficionado of the Igbo nation more than President Buhari who in his two out of four attempts at the presidency picked Igbos; the late political scientist, Senator Chuba Okadigbo (2003) and Chief Edwin Ume-Ezeoke (2011) as his running mates.
Meanwhile, Mallam el-Rufai who has been in the corridors of power since Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration in 1999 cannot show any instance of patriotism, let alone empowering the Igbos as he did to northerners while in government.
Furthermore, el-Rufai headed OBJ’s political squad then, that almost shattered the constitutional structure of government, to the extent that the nation’s former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was severally and openly disrespected, verbally attacked and almost gang-beaten at FEC meetings, leading to his tactical withdrawal from attendance till the end of that regime.
Thus, sometimes, while taking messages, the messenger ought to be cautiously scrutinized to ascertain the logic behind the profound messages. Without a doubt, the situation of things in the South East deserves a state of emergency and will inevitably play a crucial role in the next general elections.
If el-Rufai’s plots and calculations towards the 2019 are to grab the presidential ticket of any political party to contest against President Buhari, so as to scheme out the South East of the presidential race, he has goofed.
Meanwhile, the good message of Igbo marginalization may become a designed gizmo to unconsciously elongate the marginalization if care is not taken.
At this point in time, the best all northerners that feel concerned over some inadequacies of the present administration should do is to resourcefully and collectively rally around President Buhari and help him redress unfair policies, and not to run down the administration in the media with the intention to get sympathy from the zones that are facing marginalization, and thereby swapping Buhari with another northerner who would certainly go for another two terms.
To the public, Buhari represents the north on a geographical level; hence his success or failure will be accorded as that of the north, the same way it happened to Goodluck Jonathan.
Conclusively, for any northerner, sadly in the same APC, to become its critic overnight, there is certainly a sinister motive.
Umegboro, a public affairs analyst, lives in Abuja.
Carl Umegboro
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo