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Oil Price Fall And Nigeria’s Economy

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At the 7th All Nigeria
Guild of Editors conference held in Benin, the Edo State capital on Thursday, September 22, 2011, the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, raised alarm that should oil  price drop below $80 per barrel in the international market, some state governments in Nigeria would not be able to pay salaries to their workers.
El-Rufai, who was speaking on the topic, “Perspectives on the Cost of Governance in Nigeria”, had strongly noted that pegging of oil price as high as $75 then in the national budget was unrealistic and not good for Nigeria’s economy.
The minister was being as prophetic as many individuals and organizations who believed that the nation’s economy which is oil dominated would be in a quagmire, should any unforeseen surprises affect the oil price in the global market.
Various experts had also, for too long been consistent in expressing strong need for drastic reduction in the high cost of Nigerian governance which gulps as high as 25% of the annual budget and one of the highest in the world.
They had equally suggested diversification of the economy from oil to other sectors particularly agriculture which hold high promises for food on the table of the average Nigerian, mass employment, raw material for industrialization and foreign exchange earning.
While most nations of the world had strategized to contain such possible economic fears, most African governments also took bold steps in preparations for the economic uncertainties, but some deaf-and-dumb governments had preferred what goes directly into the individual pockets of the leaders than the general good of the citizens. Billions of Dollars meant for constituency funds, furniture extravagant travelling allowances, amongst others find their ways to the law makers and their crowd of primal aides.
Today, the reality is not only knocking at our doors but is quite here with us. The present systematic drop in the oil price which experts predict could slide far below $50 per barrel benchmark before the end of 2015 has become Nigeria’s undoing.
Many state governments in Nigeria today are owing months of salaries arrears to their workers while contractors have abandoned projects execution because the oil price then predicted had fallen below budgetary calculations and states lack the funds to pay.
Some private schools in Port Harcourt have already given notice of increase in school fees, landlords are also threatening to raise rent, labour unions are ironically agitating for pay rise in view of recent devaluation of Naira occasioned by dramatic drop of oil price in global market even as state governments insist they would not review the $65 per barrel benchmark on which they proposed their 2015 budgets. Where would these excoriations take the nation to in the present economic situation determined by global economic reality?
An economist, George Clement, is of the view that time has come for Nigeria to elect leaders who have the capacity to proffer solutions to the socio-economic challenges confronting the nation as against empty promises for which most Nigerian political leaders are known.
“The era of touts aspiring for public offices should be over. It is time to look beyond sweet talks and empty promises now that campaign period in Nigeria is around the corner”, said Clement.
He said, “our leaders had since the oil boom of the 70s refused to do the right thing. Billions of Naira had consistently been swallowed up by the pockets of fraudulent leaders”, he remarked noting that the future generations may have nothing to be proud of about their nation if the real change is not effected.
Another respondent, Mrs Mary Jonathan, in her own reaction is challenging the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to trace the loots of the nation wherever they might have been hidden.
“Yes, it  appears late but not too late. We cannot continue to wallow in poverty in a rich country while few persons in the name of politics continue to cart away our resources”, she stressed.
Jonathan appealed to the Federal Government to review the pump price downward to reflect the price of oil in the global market. “We cannot afford to pay more when actually the price has fallen. The N97 per litre of fuel is no longer realistic”, she maintained.
A civil servant, Makel Ndah, in his own reaction called for upward review of workers salary. “Since the Naira has been devalued, its exchange power has become weak, it is important that the government reviews workers salary upward to meet with the current market reality”.
A landlord in Port Harcourt Chief Clifford Nweke, said,” it is obvious that house rent would be reviewed since government has started to have a second look at the Naira.”
We are all Nigeirans, operating in the same market, so what affects one should equally affect the other. Yes some people will say landlords are wicked shylocks, but that is mere sentiment”, he maintained.
A private school proprietor who pleaded anonymity said, “we had our first Parent Teachers Meeting last week and the issue of increase of salaries was raised by the teachers and I told the parents to pray and watch because for me to pay higher workers salary means that the fees charged students would also be reviewed upward.
“Please don’t get me wrong, we have not increased school fees yet. What I am saying is that we in my school are studying the socio-economic variables. If workers salary goes up and other schools readjust to meet with the reality, we here would also adjust because we are part of the society”, he explained.
A Port Harcourt- based public analyst, Christian Nnamdi, said the issue calls for caution. “There is no need to panic yet. It is not a Nigerian thing but a global phenomenon. It does not affect only Nigeria but other nations of the world. Nigeria has many antidotes to the problem. So all we need to do is study the situation to know the dynamic nature of the change.
According to Nnamdi, the nation should not leave everything in the hands of politicians. “We need to protect the economy from the excesses of selfish Nigerian politicians and one way of doing that is to gather together some technocrats and experts in various fields especially economists. Let the think- tank develop an economic plan that should guide the policies and programmes.
Call it 25 years economic development plan. So that whichever political group that takes the mantle of leadership, will have to build whatever programme from the economic blue print.
Nnamdi blamed the woe of the nation on inconsistency of leadership, stressing that government should be seen as a continuation from where the former ends. “But you see, in Nigeria, any new administration is in the habit of abandoning the programmes of the previous administration at the detriment of so much fund sunk into such projects because they want to take credit.
“But with a long term economic development plan, new government can no longer abandon projects started by the former government. It has to inherit it and complete it for the people. This idea will make nonsense of the penchant for second term which is common in Nigeria,” he maintained.
It would be recalled that discovery of shale oil which increase supply in American oil market, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil has affected the oil supply in the global market. This high supply has reduced oil price in the global market and Nigeria, whose economy remains oil-driven is directly affected.
Nigeria whose budget depends on oil has been forced to review its oil benchmark resulting in austerity measures to contain the economic downturn.
Medium Term Expenditure framework which the Finance Minister, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, submitted to the National Assembly, scaled down the nation’s budgetary estimate for 2015 to N4.661 trillion as against an initial N4.817 trillion.

 

Chris Oluoh

Some Transformers donated by the lawmaker representing Oyigbo in the RSHA Hon. Okechukwu .A. Nwuogu

Some Transformers donated by the lawmaker representing Oyigbo in the RSHA Hon. Okechukwu .A. Nwuogu

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Supermajors Bet Big on Long-Term Oil Demand

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The world’s largest international oil firms are ramping up production even as crude prices have weakened this year and global supply growth continues to outpace the demand increase, setting the stage for a glut in the coming months.
The European majors are back to investing in exploration and new oil and gas field developments after years of trying – and mostly failing – to generate profits and good returns from low-carbon energy projects, including renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and biofuels.
The U.S. supermajors, ExxonMobil and Chevron, are pumping record oil volumes in the top shale region, the Permian, while betting on international project expansions in Guyana and Kazakhstan, for example. The U.S. giants both reported in the second quarter record-high production in the Permian and worldwide, following Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron’s buying of Hess.
France’s TotalEnergies expects higher oil and gas production to have boosted earnings for the third quarter, despite a $10 per barrel decline in oil prices since last year.
Production at the other European supermajors, Shell and BP, is also rising as the European giants shifted focus back to their core oil and gas business. The pivot took place after the energy crisis made energy security and affordability more important than sustainability, while high interest rates and supply chain issues further reduced already meager returns from clean energy projects and made many new energy ventures uncompetitive.
The supermajors are confident they can withstand the current weaker prices and the surplus on the market, to which they have contributed, alongside the national oil companies of the OPEC+ producers, which have been reversing the production cuts this year.
Big Oil is looking beyond the short-term fundamentals and glut noise, having decided to invest more in oil and gas to meet solid demand until at least the mid-2030s.
Unlike the International Energy Agency (IEA), which earlier this year doubled down on its forecast of peak oil demand by the end of this decade, Big Oil companies don’t see any peak by 2030.
BP, which said last year that global oil demand would peak as early as this year, ditched this view in its new annual Energy Outlook last month, in which it now expects oil demand to rise through 2030 amid weaker-than-expected efficiency gains.
Most majors have put the peak at some point in the 2030s, but none expect a rapid decline afterwards, and all say that oil and gas will remain essential for global economic growth and development in 2050.
“Oil and natural gas are essential. There’s no other viable way to meet the world’s energy needs,” ExxonMobil said in its 2025 Global Outlook.
“Our Global Outlook projects that oil and natural gas will make up more than half of the world’s energy supply in 2050. We project that oil demand will stabilize after 2030, remaining above 100 million barrels per day through 2050,” the U.S. supermajor reckons.
“All major credible scenarios include oil and natural gas as a dominant energy source in 2050.”
All three scenarios analyzed in Shell’s 2025 Energy Security Scenarios found that upstream investment of around $600 billion a year “will be required for decades to come as the rate of depletion of oil and gas fields is two to three times the potential future annual declines in demand.”
Exxon and now the European majors are playing the long game—invest in new oil and gas supply, at the expense of renewables, to offset with new production the accelerating natural decline of producing oil and gas fields.
Even the IEA admitted last month that the world needs to develop new oil and gas resources just to keep output flat amid faster declining rates at existing fields, in a major shift in its narrative from 2021 that ‘no new investment’ is needed in a net-zero by 2050 scenario.
Exploration is also back at the top of the agenda for Big Oil, as the companies appear confident their product will be in demand for decades to come.
The expected massive overhang later this year and early next year is not putting off the supermajors’ plans to increase production. They are slashing costs via cutting thousands of workforce numbers to protect shareholder payouts at $60 per barrel oil. Companies have pledged billions of U.S. dollars in cost savings and slimmer corporate structures. That’s to eliminate inefficiencies and excessive costs while keeping payouts to shareholders at much lower prices compared to the 2022 highs.
This year, higher oil and gas production is partly offsetting the weaker prices.
Increased output also positions the world’s biggest companies for rising profits when the glut clears within a year or so, analysts say.
“All the supply coming to the market is shrinking OPEC’s spare capacity — so there’s a light at end of the tunnel,” Barclays analyst Betty Jiang told Bloomberg this week.
“Whether that’s second half of 2026 or 2027, the balance is going to tighten. It’s just a matter of when.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova
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Stakeholders Lament Poor Crude Oil Supply To Indigenous Companies …..Urges President To Pressure NNPCL To Prioritise Local Refineries

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Stakeholders in the Downstream oil sector in collaboration with Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) have called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to create an enabling environment for all oil refining companies to thrive without fear or pressure of any kind.
They also want the President to mandate the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to prioritize crude oil supply to local refineries over foreign partners.
The groups made the call during the Mega Rally against economic sabotage in the Nigerian Petroleum sector with the theme ‘National Unity Against sabotage: Reclaiming of Petroleum Sector for the People’, held in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital.
Addressing journalists during the rally, the Convener of Partners for National Economic Progress, Olamide Odumosu, insisted that it was unacceptable that government agencies hide under the “willing supplier, willing buyer” clause to frustrate the supply of crude to local refineries.
Odumosu called on president Tinubu to ensure that crude oil supply to the dangote refinery is not debatable.
Odumosu described the recent expansion of the Dangote refinery from 650,000m bpd to 1.4m bpd as not just a national glory but a continental and global one expressing regrets however, that the Dangote refinery now rely on the international scene for crude .
In his words “As an oil producing country, the matter of supply of crude to local refineries (in this case, the Dangote Refinery) is not only a matter of Law as stated in the Petroleum Industry Act, but a manner of patriotic duty, national consciousness and economic prosperity drive. It is very sad, unfortunate and embarrassing that Dangote Refinery imports crude from other countries due to his inability to source it at home.
“It is for this reason that the PIA encourages regulatory agencies to formulate policies that will ensure the supply of crude to local refineries, including imposing sanctions where necessary”.
On his path, the convener of Niger Delta Youth council, comrade Danielson Prince, condemned the practice of importing crude oil from outside the shores of the country.
Prince noted that such was detrimental to Nigeria’s economy while calling on the President to pressure NNPC to sell crude oil to Nigerian companies within Nigeria.
“However, this is both a journey and a struggle. And we will not rest, will we get to the desired destination and victory achieved. There are still very important issues to address”, he stated.
Prince described the situation as sad stating that it was unfortunate and embarrassing that Dangote Refinery imports crude from other countries due to his inability to source it at home.
Odumosu also emphasized that it is unacceptable for government agencies in the country to hide under the willing supplier clause to frustrate the supply of crude oil to local refining companies in the country.
TheTide learnt that similar rallies were recently organized in Abuja, Kaduna and Asana respectively.
By: King Onunwor
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Investors Raise $500m For Solar Manufacturing – Adelabu

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The Federal Government, in partnership with state governors and private investors, has secured nearly $500m to establish solar manufacturing plants across Nigeria.
Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, disclosed this at the just concluded Nigeria Energy Conference, in Lagos.
Recall that the minister had announced that Nigeria had begun exporting locally manufactured solar panels to Ghana, marking a milestone in the country’s renewable energy drive.
According to him, following the recently concluded Nigerian Renewable Energy Innovation Forum organised by the Rural Electrification Agency, the government secured agreements worth nearly $500m with state governors and private investors.
The initiative, he said, would add close to 4 gigawatts of solar manufacturing capacity per annum, almost 80 per cent of Nigeria’s current total power generation capacity.
“At the recently concluded Nigerian Renewable Energy Innovation Forum, we successfully activated agreements totalling almost $500m with state governors and investors. What will this do? It will bring on stream nearly 4 gigawatts per annum of solar manufacturing capacity, equivalent to almost 80 per cent of our current national generation capacity,” he stated.
He explained that the deals would support local production of solar panels, batteries, and meters, reducing dependence on imports and positioning Nigeria as a key player in the regional energy market.
“Companies that will manufacture solar panels here and that will manufacture batteries and meters here, we can give them deposits. With this scale of renewable energy production coming online, Nigeria is not only positioned to achieve its domestic renewable energy transition targets but also to serve as the regional power market,” Adelabu said.
He said this would strengthen the export of renewables, a feat he said was achieved recently with Ghana.
“Nigeria will serve as the regional power market in terms of the hub, which we recently started doing with the export of Nigerian-based solar panels to Ghana just last month. Yes, we exported solar panels manufactured in Nigeria to Ghana, and we will not stop. We will be the hub for this, not just for West Africa, but for the entire African market,” he stated.
The minister noted that the move would have far-reaching benefits for the economy, including job creation, foreign exchange earnings, and faster deployment of solar energy infrastructure.
He added that training and empowering Nigerian youths in renewable energy technologies would be key to sustaining the progress.
Adelabu assured investors that the government was creating an enabling environment for private sector participation across the power value chain, particularly in transmission.
“Nigeria’s power sector remains open and ready for business more than ever before. The government is ready to provide the right and conducive atmosphere to make this environment investor-friendly.
“As rational investors, recovery of your principal and margin on principal are very important, and the way the power sector is configured, you will never lose your investment; you will be proud to be an investor in Nigeria,” he added.
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