Politics
How Obama’ll Pocket 271 Electoral Votes To Win US Poll
President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
Analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271 electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states, including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned aggressively there this year. But Obama’s team acknowledges it is the most difficult state for him to win, and he’s paid less attention to it recently.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
“I’m counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next president is!” Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week. In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the end of a six-state marathon: “I need you, Ohio. America needs you, Ohio.”
Romney is banking on what his supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than Democrats.
About 35 percent of voters are expected to cast their ballots before November. 6, either in person or by mail. More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be counted until November 6, but some states report the party affiliation of people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. Republicans have the early edge in Colorado.
Obama, who won in 2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Colorado.
Romney has fewer options. He must carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada, Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the state’s 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning territory.
At the top of that target list are Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.
Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.
Obama was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential debates. But Romney’s strong performance in the debates helped him gain ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.
Operatives in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama’s criticism of Romney’s opposition to the automotive industry bailout. They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies heavily on the car and auto parts industries.
The president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney’s position on the aid. Obama’s internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part of Ohio’s largely blue-collar electorate.
“That is a killer,’” Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position. “And it’s going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the outcome of the election.”
Out of necessity, Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that’s set to hit the East Coast led Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday and join Ryan in Ohio.
In Ohio alone, Romney and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads, compared with Obama and his allies’ $6 million, and showed no signs of letting up in the final week.
Elsewhere, Obama is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal money for Planned Parenthood.
In Nevada, Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the president’s team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state, partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.
Florida, the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney’s standing has improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach for Obama in the coming days.
Associated Press writer Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.
The Tide source reports that the committee, reportedly backed by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Chief Nyesom Wike, is making moves to reclaim the Wadata Plaza headquarters months after it was sealed following a violent clash between rival factions of the party.
Senior officers at the FCT Police Command told our source that while they had not received an official briefing, police personnel would be stationed at the secretariat and other key locations to maintain peace.
The Acting National Secretary of the Mohammed-led committee, Sen. Samuel Anyanwu, announced last week that the secretariat would reopen for official activities on Monday (today).
He dismissed claims that ongoing litigation would prevent the reopening, saying, “There are no legal barriers preventing the caretaker committee from resuming work at the party’s headquarters.”
However, the Tanimu Turaki-led National Working Committee (NWC) has fiercely rejected the reopening move, insisting that Sen. Anyanwu and his group remain expelled from the PDP and have no authority to act on its behalf.
Speaking with The Tide source, the committee’s National Publicity Secretary, Ini Ememobong, declared: “They are living in fool’s paradise. The worst form of deceit is self-deceit, where the person knows he is deceiving himself yet continues with gusto.
“Even INEC, which they claim has recognised them, has denied them. They are indulging in a roller coaster of self-deceit.”
Mr Ememobong further revealed that letters had been sent to both the Inspector-General of Police and the FCT Commissioner of Police, stressing that the matter was still in court and warning against any attempt to “resort to self-help.”
“The case pending before Justice Joyce Abdulmalik was instituted by the expelled members. They cannot resort to self-help until judgment is delivered,” he said.
He warned that reopening the secretariat would amount to contempt of court.
A senior officer at the FCT Police Command, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed that officers would be deployed to the area to avert a repeat of the November 19 violence that led to the secretariat’s initial closure.
“The command would not stand by and allow a breakdown of peace and order by the party or anyone else. Definitely, the police will have to be on the ground,” he said.
Another officer added, “There will definitely be men present at the secretariat, but I can’t say the number of police officers that would be deployed.”
When contacted, the FCT Police Public Relations Officer, Josephine Adeh, said she had not been briefed on the planned reopening and declined to comment on whether officers would be deployed.
Asked to confirm whether the secretariat was initially sealed by police, she responded, “Yes,” but refused to say more about the current deployment plans.
The Kano State House of Assembly has debunked the purported impeachment plan against the Deputy Governor, Aminu Gwarzo.
The Tide source recalls that the Kano State Commissioner for Information and Internal Affairs, Ibrahim Waiya, recently sparked controversy during an interview session with a local radio station.
Mr Waiya called on the deputy governor to resign for failing to follow his principal, Gov. Abba Yusuf, in defecting from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
However, the spokesperson to the Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Kamaluddeen Shawai, while addressing journalists in Kano on Saturday, described reports circulating in some media outlets about Mr Gwarzo’s impeachment as baseless and misleading, emphasising that no such plan is underway.
Mr Shawai further stated that the House remains focused on its legislative duties and oversight functions rather than engaging in speculative political manoeuvres.
The spokesperson urged members of the public and the media to verify information before sharing it, stressing the importance of accurate reporting in maintaining political stability in the state.
He said, “There is absolutely no motion or initiative within the House to remove the deputy governor.
“These reports are false and should be disregarded by the public. The deputy governor continues to serve in his capacity with full support from the House.
“Our priority is good governance and serving the people of Kano, not circulating rumours.”
She made the declaration during an interview with Nigerian football legend, Mr Segun Odegbami, during a live radio interview on Saturday.
Prof. Obasanjo, who is also former commissioner in the state, ruled out a return to the Senate, stating that her focus was firmly on the governorship race.
“So, moving ahead, I’m not going to be Commissioner. Like I said, I’m not even going back to the same party because I think that’s old and I don’t see the use of it. And I’m not going to go back to the Senate,” she said.
“Like the Americans would say, there’s no need. And this is what I told my associates, when this all started. I said, the only thing I’ll come back to do is the governorship.
“And we have started that journey. We are going to see it through. And so that’s the journey I’m on. And we are very serious about it. I mean we are very dedicated to it.”
The politician also confirmed that she recently joined the APC, explaining that her return to active politics followed persistent calls from supporters.
“Like I told you, a group of people who I did not bring together, have been working, I think, for two years now. And then they started talking to me about a year ago, saying, ‘Look, we think you are the best candidate. We want you back,’” she added.
Her declaration sets the stage for what may become a keenly contested governorship race in Ogun State ahead of the 2027 elections.
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