When the Vision 20: 2020 project was inaugurated with so much enthusiasm at the inception of this administration, many Nigerians thought  that by now the various sectors of the economy would have gathered remarkable steam to propel the country towards joining the enviable club of mega economies. But until recently when President Goodluck Jonathan unveiled the first medium term implementation plan of the project, the vision had become as dead as faith without works.

Even the formal lunching of the project document last week, several years after its conception, has cast some doubt on the commitment of government to realize the tall dream.

The Minister of National Planning and Vice Chairman, National Planning Commission, Dr. Shamsudden Usman whose responsibility it is to facilitate the implementation of the plan explains that the project would be driven by Public Private Partnership (PPP). According to him, the vision which is designed to be implemented through three medium term development plans covering 2010 – 2013, 2013-2016, and 2017-2010 periods will gulp about N32 trillion. And to raise this amount, it is projected that the federal government, the states and local governments, and the private sector would provide N10 trillion, N9 trillion, and N13 trillion respectively.

Yes, our dream to join the group of top 20 economies at 2020 can help the nation assembly its destiny from an array of possibilities to form a desirable and great future for its people. But for a dream to be most effective, it should be vivid in consciousness, definite, steady, and sustainable.

Therefore, in practical terms, what does it mean for Nigeria to become one of the 20 largest economies by the year 2020? It means that by 2020, we expect Nigeria to be like at least Turkey, Sweden, Belguim, Switzerland, and Russia. And we hope that, perhaps, the Nigerian economy will come close to those of Canada, Spain, France, and united Kingdom. Better still, it means that by 2020, the good life that attracts Nigerians to Germany, Japan, and the United States of America can also be found in the country.

This is to say that by 2020, the income of Nigerians will rise to levels where basic food, shelter, and clothing will no longer be the main consumption objectives of the labour force. Rather, automobiles, TV Sets, refrigerators, and so on will become the items that will catch the interest of consumers. It means that by 2020, the country’s production function shall have been developed to the stage where it produces not necessarily everything but anything that it chooses to produce. It means that by 2020 Nigeria shall be seen as being aggressive in the world politics.

As indicated in Tony Manuaka’s report on Why Vision 2020 Is A Mirage; published in the Broad Street Journal Edition of May 12, 2008: “To be in the top 20 bracket, the size of the economy is expectd to be in the  region of $800 billion and $900 billion. The average growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to be between 13 per cent and 15 per cent. In the education sector, the country is expected to have achieved 100 per cent in primary school enrolment… In the health sector, life expectancy in the country is expected to increase from 47 years to 70 years with remarkable improvement in infant and maternal mortality.”

In all, by 2020 Nigeria shall have established a welfare state and adopted a high mass consumption pattern.

The task is challenging, if not frightening considering the country’s present low level of economic growth and development. Strictly speaking, the country’s structure of production is still rudimentary. In the country, the vast majority of the people lives and works in the rural areas. They grow their products using primitive technique,  plough, animals, and human power, and transport them (the products) to the market and even sell them by themselves. They and their families also build their own homes and make many of their household utensils. Their counterparts in the mega economies, on the other hand, have become highly specialized. Thy hire others to transport their commodities.

In Nigeria, government is peripheral to the well-being of a host of people who provide such basic things as electricity, water, and security and even roads themselves, which are a given in the large economies.

The reality of this scenario is that the Nigerian economy is encumbered with the critical features of underdevelopment. Worse still, the country is not among the fastest growing economies of the world such as South Korea, Chile, Ireland, and China.

But with its abundant human and natural resources, Nigeria, paradoxically, has the most enviable economic profile on the African continent.

Now the question is: Can Nigeria, against this back-drop realise its dream of becoming a top 20 economy at 2020? just 10 years away. The answer is no. Not because, as a nation, we  do not have the equisite resources to manifest the dream but because of the leadership question which has become as stubborn as a mule and our apparent  inertia to yield to the laws of motion of societies.

President Jonathan presents a sincere disposition to move the nation forward. But there is no indication that the whole weight of the country will not continue to rest on the enclave oil and gas sector which accounts for over 90 per cent of the nation’s foreign exchange earnings.

Besides, the primacy of politics still prevails in the public policy and decision making process of the various governments of the federation. The primacy of politics exists in the process of policy decision making when political considerations outweigh rational and technical questions of selecting alternatives which have the greatest probability of affecting the most efficient and effective allocation of scarce resources.

Let us face the fact. How can a country with inexhaustible pool of self-serving individuals; a country that wastes its resources like Nigeria hope to spin itself to the elite group of 20 largest economics in the world within 10 years. China, India, South Korea, and Brazil are soaring higher and higher because of their openness to change and resolve to base policy decision-making on rational-technical considerations.

Yes, big dreams come true but for one to realize them, one has to be prepared for big changes; one has to pay the price. Apparently, the realisation of our dream of becoming a top 20 economy may be kept far away because of our resistance to social, economic, and attitudinal changes.