Oil & Energy

World’s Recoverable Oil Resources Shrinks By 9%

Published

5 years ago

July 19, 2021

Every year and following the publication of the BP Statistical Review, Rystad Energy releases its own assessment to provide an independent, solid and clear comparison of how the world’s energy landscape changed last year. Our 2021 review deals a major blow for the size of the world’s remaining recoverable oil resources, but it also shows that oil production and consumption can align with climate goals.
Rystad Energy now estimates total recoverable oil resources at 1,725 billion barrels, a significant reduction of last year’s estimate of 1,903 billion barrels. Out of this total, which shows our estimate of how much oil is technically recoverable in the future, about 1,300 billion barrels are sufficiently profitable to be produced before the year 2100 at a Brent real oil price of $50 per barrel.
“In this scenario, global production of oil and natural gas liquids will fall below 50 million barrels per day by 2050. Exploring, developing, processing and consuming this amount of commercially extractable oil will lead to gross greenhouse gas emissions of less than 450 gigatonnes of CO2 from now until 2100. This is compliant with IPCC’s carbon budget for global warming limited to 1.8?C by 2100,” says Rystad Energy’s Head of Analysis, Per Magnus Nysveen.
This year’s review of global recoverable oil resources is based on resources modelled at well level rather than field level. This more detailed approach has removed 178 billion barrels from the expected accounts as the confidence level for decline rates has increased with the amount of new information gathered.
Our updated report also includes revisions for proved reserves. Here Rystad Energy applies a consistent set of conservative probabilities, as opposed to official reporting by authorities which is deemed less consistent. Among other findings, we see significant differences among OPEC members on the longevity of proved reserves, ranging from well below 10 years for some members to almost 20 years for Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In terms of absolute volumes removed from non-OPEC producers, remaining recoverable resources in the US are now reduced to 214 billion barrels, losing 30 billion barrels from last year’s estimate. China suffers the second-largest loss with its remaining recoverable resources now limited to 50 billion barrels, a down wards revision of 26 billion barrels. Mexico’s recoverable resources are third on the loss list, downgraded by 12 billion barrels to 26 billion barrels. Most of this year’s revisions are driven by lower upside potential from shale oil drilling due to complex geology and the need for extensive exploration campaigns and improved fracking technologies.
The remaining recoverable resources of OPEC countries are reduced by 53 billion barrels to 741 billion barrels. Iran and Saudi Arabia have the largest revisions, losing 11 billion barrels each, with Saudi recoverable oil volumes now calculated at 288 billion barrels and Iranian volumes at 101 billion barrels. Iraq follows in third place, seeing its recoverable resources shrink by 8 billion barrels to 110 billion barrels.
In this revision, Saudi Arabia keeps the throne as the producer with the largest volumes of recoverable oil resources (288 billion barrels). The US follows second (214 billion barrels), Russia third (149 billion barrels) and Canada fourth (138 billion barrels).
In Central and South America, Brazil remains first in recoverable resources, sitting on 83 billion barrels (down 2 billion barrels from last year’s update). In Europe, with 19 billion barrels (down by 1 billion barrels in this update), Norway remains ahead of the UK, whose volumes have shrunk by 2 billion barrels to 10 billion. In Africa, resource leader Nigeria lost 6 billion barrels and its recoverable resources are now estimated at 20 billion barrels.
Unlike most countries in our analysis, Australia’s estimated recoverable oil resources are now seen higher by 2 billion barrels at 23 billion barrels.
The time stamp of Rystad Energy’s newest resource assessment is 1 January 2021. In other words, our analysis illustrates where the remaining recoverable resources of each country stood at the beginning of this year.
Culled from Rystad Energy

Oil & Energy

Resource Wars Are Here and Oil Is the First Casualty

Published

5 days ago

March 30, 2026

The Tide

In just over a year, the world saw several instances of a choked supply of commodities indispensable for today’s economies and military capabilities.

From China’s restrictions on rare earths and critical minerals supply to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, policymakers and analysts began to realize that the control of oil, critical minerals, rare earths, and magnets is as important as building and maintaining stockpiles of advanced weapons. It also became clear that without these resources, defense and military capabilities could be weakened. The actual arms race goes hand in hand with the new battle for the resources that underpin economic, manufacturing, and advanced military development.

“Great-power competition has returned to basics: who controls the physical resources that modern economies and militaries run on,” Alice Gower, a partner at London-based political-risk advisory firm Azure Strategy, told the Wall Street Journal.

“Energy, critical minerals and industrial capacity are leverage, not just economic assets,” Gower added.

The war in the Middle East and the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz laid bare the reality of choked energy supply. The world’s most vital oil and LNG chokepoint, through which 20% of daily global trade flowed before the Iran war, has been essentially closed for most tanker traffic for more than three weeks.

The massive supply shock, the worst disruption in the oil market in history, showed that the world is dependent on energy resources, and that geography and actual physical supply matter. With so much oil and gas stranded in the Middle East, oil prices spiked to above $100 per barrel, natural gas prices in Europe doubled, and Asian spot LNG prices hit multi-year highs.

The precarious situation in the Middle East is reverberating across Asia, the region most dependent on oil and LNG supply from the Persian Gulf. Asian refiners pay sky-high premiums for non-Middle Eastern crude, many are considering cutting or have already cut processing rates, and countries have started to enact fuel-preserving measures, from four-day work weeks to bans on fuel exports.

In Europe, the gas refilling season will be the toughest yet, as Asia is outbidding Europe for spot LNG supply after Qatar’s LNG is effectively sidelined and full capacity may not return for up to five years following Iranian missile attacks last week.

Even the ‘energy independent’ United States, the world’s top oil producer, is not independent when it comes to global supply shocks of such magnitude.

The national average price of gasoline is approaching $4 per gallon nationwide, more than $1 a gallon compared to a month ago, before the start of the war.

Oil is a global resource, traded on a global market, and prices reflect fundamentals, although they have been driven by hectic trading activity on geopolitics in recent weeks. But the fundamentals show that there is no resource available to plug the gap that has opened in Middle Eastern supply. Producers are slashing output due to a lack of storage capacity, which further delays a rapid recovery in supply when this mess ends.

All this goes to show that whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz has enormous leverage on inflicting global economic pain.

While the world is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the race for rare earths and critical minerals continues, with the U.S. and Western countries scrambling to dent China’s dominance.

Since China restricted exports of rare earth elements early in 2025, Western countries have raced to create mine-to-magnet supply chains to reduce dependence on Chinese supply in the key military and automotive industries.

China holds a 59% share of the mining of rare earths, 91% in refining, and a whopping 94% in magnet manufacturing, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.

The U.S. has responded by taking stakes in minerals mining companies, the launch of a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, known as Project Vault, and is leading efforts to break the Chinese stronghold on the pricing of these minerals critical for the defense and auto industries and national security.

Chinese dominance could be eroded, but it would take years.

Still, rising neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) supply from countries like the U.S. and Australia is set to reduce China’s market share to 69% by 2030 from 90% in 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) said in new research this month.

“We’re seeing a surge in rare-earth investment as modern technologies demand more critical materials,” said Jack Baxter, Global Metals & Mining Analyst at BI and co-author of the report.

“That said, we anticipate a significant shortfall in supply due to trade uncertainties, with lead times as long as 10 years to get new material out of the ground,” Baxter added.

“This will give pricing power to the few producers that currently are able to supply critical materials outside of China, fracturing the globalized market.”

Amid fractured markets and high geopolitical uncertainty, one thing is certain – the next arms race, alongside the actual arms race, will be for control of key resources such as oil and critical minerals.

By Tsvetana Paraskova

Oil & Energy

Transcorp Energy, Renewvia Partner On Renewable Energy Gap

Published

5 days ago

March 30, 2026

The Tide

Transcorp Energy Limited and Renewvia Solar Nigeria Limited have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly develop renewable energy projects across Nigeria.

The move is aimed at addressing the persistent power deficit that has crumble businesses in the nation.

The agreement also outlines a longer-term plan to expand operations across Africa, positioning both firms to tap into growing demand for clean and reliable electricity.

The partnership would target commercial, industrial and residential consumers, as well as underserved communities, through a mix of off-grid and grid-connected energy solutions.

Beyond electricity provision, the collaboration would explore the aggregation and monetisation of Renewable Energy Credits generated from the projects, adding a commercial layer to the clean energy rollout.

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Transcorp Energy, Chris Ezeafulukwe, said the initiative aligns with the company’s broader strategy to expand access to sustainable power.

He noted that combining grid and decentralised energy systems would enable the company to deliver reliable electricity directly to end-users across different segments of the economy.

Chief Executive Officer of Renewvia, Trey Jarrard, described Nigeria as a critical market for the company’s African ambitions.

According to him, the partnership provides a platform to scale operations rapidly by leveraging established infrastructure and local expertise, while delivering cost-effective and resilient energy solutions.

Both companies said the agreement lays the foundation for a scalable pan-African renewable energy business, capable of supporting diverse markets and accelerating the continent’s transition to cleaner power sources.

The collaboration comes amid increasing pressure on governments and private sector players to deploy sustainable energy solutions to bridge electricity gaps, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and support economic growth across Africa.

Oil & Energy

IYC Tasks Niger Delta Governors On Oil Field Bidding ….Decries Exclusion of Host Communities

Published

5 days ago

March 30, 2026

The Tide

The Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) Worldwide has raised concerns over the continued exclusion of host communities from the governance of oil resources, urging Niger Delta governors to take decisive steps by bidding for oil blocs and marginal fields.

The council warned that failure to act would allow external interests to continue dominating the region’s oil assets, despite their location within host communities.

Secretary-General of the council, Maobuye Nangi-Obu, started this at the stakeholders’ meeting organised by the Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited , with participants drawn from Rivers, Abia and Imo States, in Port Harcourt, recently.

“It is time for state governments in the Niger Delta, especially Rivers State, to form oil companies that can bid for marginal fields within their territories”, he said.

Nangi-Obu expressed concern over the reported listing of about 25 marginal oil fields for allocation, noting that many were located in host communities but allegedly being assigned to non-indigenes.

In his words “They sit in Abuja and decide what happens in our region, yet we are not part of the oil governance of our own resources”.

He explained that marginal fields, though considered uneconomical by major oil firms, remain viable for indigenous operators, adding that their allocation had continued to fuel grievances in the Niger Delta.

The IYC scribe also warned of the implications of directional drilling, describing it as a growing threat to host communities.

“There could be oil wells in your community, and somebody elsewhere could be drilling that oil without your knowledge,” he cautioned.

On environmental concerns, Nangi-Obu condemned the persistent gas flaring in the region, blaming both international and local operators for failing to invest in gas processing infrastructure.

He, however, commended Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited for its engagement with host communities.

“Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited is doing the right thing by engaging stakeholders. Not all companies are doing what they are doing,” he stated.

Traditional rulers at the meeting, further acknowledged improvements linked to the company’s activities in their areas.

The Eze Ekpeye-Logbo, King Kevin Anugwo, represented by Dr Patricia Ogbonnaya, noted that “aquatic life that disappeared due to pollution is gradually returning,” attributing the development to improved environmental conditions.

Similarly, Chairman of the K-Dere Council of Chiefs, Chief Batom Mitee, said, “There is now peace in our community,” stressing, increased oil production must translate into tangible benefits for host communities.

By: King Onunwor