Oil & Energy

Global Energy Advisory

Published

8 years ago

November 20, 2017

This week in energy was dominated by the predictions from two top energy sources – OPEC and the International Energy Agency.
On the one side you had OPEC, which is meeting on November 30th to decide the fate of production guidelines going forward. It might be no surprise, in advance of that meeting that they would upgrade their view of the global demand picture and they did – seeing at least their share of demand increasing by more than 400,000 barrels a day. This prediction would bode very well for the Saudi/OPEC strategy of continued restrictions on production going forward.
On the opposite side was the IEA, whose World Energy Outlook reduced their forecast for oil demand to a ‘mere’ 1.5m barrels a day increase in 2018 – a number that’s already historically huge, but a reduction from a forecast they had in fact increased – two times already – in 2017. More impactful, perhaps, was their longer-term forecast of global energy use. Despite their robust call for a 30 percent increase in total energy demand to 2040, they somehow managed to discount the role that crude oil was likely to play in fulfilling that demand.
Whether I buy the IEA’s prognostication skills 20+ years into the future given their helpless track record or not – (I don’t) – the WEO was blamed for a sell-off in oil futures in the last week.
Let’s discount these reports for the moment. This sell-off was more likely a result of the huge influx of hedge fund and other speculative account long positions that had accumulated in the last weeks, a negative trend I spotted and pointed out in last week’s column.
The most important question to answer is of course: What now?
It has been my position during the last several months that oil is making its way towards a new bull market and the predictive analyses do nothing to alter that position. Indeed, the one fundamental piece of news that might slow down my enthusiasm for oil isn’t related either to the IEA’s WEO report nor the overeager buying of hedge funders – it is the unsettling increase of a net nine rigs from the Baker-Hughes report of November 10th, including seven fresh drilled from the Scoop/Stack. Whether this is a trend that will creep rigs upwards again – something I definitely wasn’t expecting through the end of the year – is something that bears watching for the next several weeks.
But until that trend is definitively upended, every dip must be viewed as a buying opportunity.
And here I invite you to look at some of the names that might have rocketed upwards and might have become too expensive to enter – now moderating slowly to more appetising levels.
You know I am not your broker and will not deliver names you must buy and prices at which they must be bought. But I again will voice my preference for independent Permian shale names that have core acreage that’s proven to be profitable at $55 a barrel, with decent financials.
Many names will come to mind, including Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Concho Resources (CXO), Cimarex (XEC), EOG Resources (EOG) – and other smaller cap names like SM energy (SM) Centennial Resources (CDEV), Matador (MTDR) and Jagged Edge (JAG).
Until our thesis is broken, these are the places to look to take advantage of a market that I believe is just taking a small break from its inevitable upwards climb.
Source: Oilprice Report for 17/11/17

Oil & Energy

NCDMB Unveils $100m Equity Investment Scheme, Says Nigerian Content Hits 61% In 2025 ………As Board Plans Technology Challenge, Research and Development Fair In 2026

Published

4 weeks ago

December 8, 2025

The Tide

The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), has unveiled a $100 million Equity Investment Scheme among a raft of fresh initiatives to bolster indigenous capacity and participation in the oil and gas industry.

Executive Secretary of the Board, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, disclosed this while delivering his keynote address at the opening of the 14th Practical Nigerian Content Forum, held in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State.

Ogbe said the $100 million Equity Investment Scheme would provide equity financing to high-growth indigenous energy service companies, while diversifying the income base of the Nigerian Content Development Fund (NCDF).

In furtherance of the scheme, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed at the event between Engr. Ogbe and the Managing Director of the Bank of Industry, Dr. Olasupo Olusi toward the management of the scheme, which is a new product of the Nigerian Content Intervention Fund (NCI Fund).

The NCDMB Scribe also announced that 61 per cent Nigerian Content level has already been attained in the oil and gas sector by the third quarter of 2025 from projects being monitored by the Board.

Ogbe further expressed the board’s readiness to onboard a new set of Project 100 Companies after the successful implementation of approved interventions relating to the first set of Project 100 Companies, launched in 2019, for which an exit plan is slated for April 2026.

The ‘Project 100 Companies’, TheTide learnt, is an initiative of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the NCDMB under which 100 indigenous companies in the oil and gas industry were nurtured and empowered to higher levels of competitiveness through capacity building and access to market opportunities.

The NCDMB helmsman also said the Board has concluded plans to launch its NCDMB Technology Challenge in the first quarter of 2026 and to hold a Research and Development Fair in the second quarter of 2026.

In addition to its ongoing initiatives, the board further stated that a review of its seven current guidelines would be undertaken between the first and second quarter of 2026.

“The Board has completed the framework for issuance of NCDF Compliance Certificate, an instrument to confirm that a company in the oil and gas industry has complied with the one per cent remittance obligations.

“The Certificate will become effective on Ist January 2026 and would be required to obtain key permits and approvals from the Board”, Ogbe said.

In his address, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, said the theme of the PNC Forum, “Securing Investments, Strengthening Local Content, and Scaling Energy Production,” captures Nigeria’s national priorities that guide interventions by the Board and his Ministry.

He insisted that investment remains the lifeblood of the energy sector, and that the Board and the Ministry were committed to providing stable policies, transparent processes, and market-driven incentives, to attract long-term capital, assuring that the ministry would continue to strengthen local capacity across fabrication, engineering, technology services, manufacturing of components, and research and development.

On his part, the Minster of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, noted with satisfaction that a decade-long stagnation in the oil and gas industry was overcame with the enactment of the long-delayed Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021, and Presidential Directives issued by the Administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in March 2024.

He said Nigeria has regained investor-confidence as signalled by the recent surge in FIDs and the increase of oil rigs from 14 to over 60, with 40 currently in active service.

“Our investment climate now is globally competitive, our fiscal terms are globally competitive. Our policies must be seen to be consistent at all times. The Federal Government is prepared to support Nigerian Content and the oil and gas industry, but then, things have to be done responsibly., he said.

In a goodwill message, the Managing Director, BOI, Dr. Olasupo Olusi, said that the collaboration between the NCDMB and BOI marked a significant expansion of a longstanding relationship, while assuring that through the $100 million NCIF Equity Investment Fund, the Bank of Industry would deploy equity and quasi-equity capital to support high-potential Nigerian companies to complement traditional debt financing and strengthening access to the long-term risk capital required for scale, competitiveness, and value creation.

“With a single obligor limit of $5 million, the Fund is designed to catalyze multiple high-impact investments while maintaining strong governance and prudent risk management”, the BOI Managing Director said.

On her part, the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Mrs. Olu A. Verheijen, commended the NCDMB for sustaining the PNC Forum, which she said, accelerates change, drives competitiveness, and pushes the industry toward global standards.

She urged stakeholders to remain intentional and not incidental about in-country value addition, as they chart the path toward building a resilient, competitive industrial base in Nigeria.

By; Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa

Oil & Energy

Power Supply Boost: FG Begins Payment Of N185bn Gas Debt

Published

4 weeks ago

December 8, 2025

The Tide

In the bid to revitalise the gas industry and stabilise power generation, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has authorised the settlement of N185 billion in long-standing debts owed to natural gas producers.

The N185 billion legacy government obligations to gas producers for past supplies had strained cash flow and hindered operations, discouraged further exploration and production, and reduced gas supply for power generation, thereby worsening Nigeria’s power shortages and unreliable electricity supply.

The payment, to be executed through a royalty-offset arrangement, is expected to restore confidence among domestic and international gas suppliers who have long expressed concern about persistent indebtedness in the sector.

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, said the move, endorsed by the National Economic Council (NEC) headed by Vice President, Kashim Shettima, marked one of the most significant interventions in Nigeria’s energy sector in recent years.

In a statement issued by the his Spokesman, Louis Ibrahim, Ekpo described the approval as a “decisive step towards revitalising Nigeria’s gas sector and strengthening its power-generation capacity in a sustainable manner,”

While noting that the intervention aligned with the ‘Decade of Gas’ initiative, which aims to unlock more than 12 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of gas supply by 2030, Ekpo said clearing the arrears would deliver wide-ranging benefits, beginning with restoring investor confidence in the sector.

According to him, settling the debts is crucial to rebuilding trust between the government and gas producers, many of whom have withheld or slowed new investments due to uncertainty over payments.

Ekpo explained that improved financial stability would help revive upstream activity by accelerating exploration and production, ultimately boosting Nigeria’s gas output adding that Increased gas supply would also boost power generation and ease the long-standing electricity shortages that continue to hinder businesses across the country.

The minister noted that these gains were expected to stimulate broader economic growth, as reliable energy underpins industrialisation, job creation and competitiveness.

In his intervention, Coordinating Director of the Decade of Gas Secretariat, Ed Ubong, said the approved plan to clear gas-to-power debts sends a powerful signal of commitment from the President to address structural weaknesses across the value chain.

“This decision underlines the federal government’s determination to clear legacy liabilities and give gas producers the confidence that supplies to power generation will be honoured. It could unlock stalled projects, revive investor interest and rebuild momentum behind Nigeria’s transition to a gas-driven economy,” Ubong said.

Oil & Energy

The AI Revolution Reshaping the Global Mining Industry

Published

4 weeks ago

December 8, 2025

The Tide

The global mining industry is undergoing a rapid digital transformation, driven by the dual pressures of the energy transition and increasingly complex extraction environments. A new market report projects the global Artificial Intelligence (AI) in mining market will nearly quadruple in value over the next seven years, reaching $9.93 billion by 2032.

This surge in adoption comes as miners face a “perfect storm” of challenges: declining ore grades, labor shortages, and an insatiable global appetite for the critical minerals required to power electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy grids.

According to data released this week, the market for AI in mining is valued at approximately $2.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 21.1 percent through 2032.

While the mining sector has historically been viewed as slow to modernize, the need for efficiency is forcing a change. The integration of autonomous haulage systems, predictive maintenance analytics, and “digital twins”—virtual replicas of physical mine sites—is shifting from pilot projects to standard operational necessity.

The “Operations & Process Optimization” segment is currently the dominant application, expected to account for more than 35 percent of the market in 2025. This technology allows companies to squeeze higher yields out of lower-quality rock, a capability that is becoming essential as easily accessible high-grade deposits are depleted worldwide.

The driving force behind this investment is the global scramble for critical minerals. The report highlights that the metal mining segment held the largest market share in 2024, directly correlated to the demand for lithium, copper, cobalt, and nickel—the backbone of the green energy economy.

“Metal mining operations involve highly complex processes—from ore body modeling and exploration to drilling, blasting, grinding, and material movement,” the report notes.

“AI supports these functions through predictive analytics… enabling cost reduction and higher yield recovery.”

For Western nations, this technological pivot also holds geopolitical weight. With China currently dominating the processing of rare earth elements, Western mining majors are under pressure to ramp up domestic production and efficiency to secure supply chains for battery manufacturing and clean energy infrastructure.

Beyond productivity, the industry is leveraging AI to address its most persistent operational risk: safety. The “Safety, Security & Environmental” segment is projected to record the highest growth rate during the forecast period.

Mining remains one of the world’s most hazardous heavy industries. Companies are increasingly deploying AI-powered video analytics and real-time worker tracking to prevent accidents involving heavy machinery and to monitor for gas leaks or ventilation failures in underground operations.

Furthermore, stricter Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria from investors are pushing miners to adopt AI for environmental compliance. New tools allow operators to monitor tailings dams for stability, track emissions in real-time, and optimize water usage, ensuring that the intensifying race for minerals does not come at the cost of environmental stewardship.

Geographically, the Asia Pacific region commanded the largest share of the AI in mining market in 2024 and is expected to maintain the highest growth rate.

This dominance is underpinned by massive production volumes in China and Australia. Major industry players in the region, including BHP and Rio Tinto, have been early adopters of autonomous technologies. In Western Australia, for example, autonomous haulage trucks and drill rigs are already commonplace, moving millions of tons of iron ore with minimal human intervention.

China’s adoption is further accelerated by government support for “smart mining” initiatives aimed at modernizing its vast coal and mineral sectors to reduce fatalities and improve environmental performance.

As the world moves toward 2032, the “mine of the future” will likely bear little resemblance to the labor-intensive operations of the past. With generative AI now entering the sector to assist in complex mine planning and exploration, the industry is pivoting toward a model where data is as valuable as the ore itself. For energy markets, this efficiency is not just a bonus; it is a prerequisite for meeting the material demands of a decarbonized world.

By: Charles Kennedy