Business
Economy: Economist Predicts Better Days …Disagrees With IMF Forecast
An economist, Prof. Ben
Aigbokhan, has predicted that Nigeria’s economy would recover from depression as soon as possible with the measures being put in place by President Muhammadu Buhari.
Aigbokhan, the President, Nigeria Economic Society, made the prediction in an interview with newsmen in Abuja recently.
He praised the Federal Government for not folding its hands and doing everything possible to improve the living conditions of Nigerians.
“The government wants to be seen to achieve something and will not allow the economy to be nose-diving as to come to minus 1.8 per cent in the last quarter of the year.
“I think between now and the last quarter the government is going to release some amount of money for the capital projects.
“So, the government will want to be seen doing something, that is why I’m optimistic that the country will come out of recession,’’ he said.
The economist, however, disagreed with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast that Nigeria’s economy would probably contract by 1.8 per cent in 2016.
The IMF forecast says Nigerian economy will now grow at a much slower pace than South Africa’s, which is expected to grow at 0.1 per cent in 2016.
It (IMF) also reported that the economy will contract for the first time in more than two decades as it adjusts to foreign currency shortages, lower power generation and weaker investor confidence.
Aigbokhan said: “I am not as pessimistic as the IMF, you know how IMF forecast do go; sometimes they use it to put pressure on government to act.
“So, I don’t think Nigeria’s economy will grow at minus 1.8 per cent. No! Things will not be that bad.
“One, oil production is picking up, and the rate of avengers destroying oil pipelines has reduced or at least is reducing.
“It is reducing with all that but you can see that the economy still nose-diving as much as well.’’
He said that the economy might decline by one per cent but would not get to minus 1.8 per cent as predicted by IMF.
“I don’t think it will be that bad because the government is reacting to the criticisms that it’s receiving lately.
“I’m not holding forth for the government but I don’t know any reason why government will want to do that,’’ the economist said.
He further said that you could see that the President himself had been talking more in the last few days than he used to do.
The economist opined that President Buhari’s talking about the economic situation was a sign that he wanted to shed off some of this image of in-activity and in-action.
“Also with the oil production picking up, some more revenue will be coming in gradually.
“I don’t expect government to spend the revenue on social things but government should spend it on developmental projects,’’ he said.
He stated that the release of funds for capital projects would enhance some level of growth in the nation’s economy.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) yesterday said 33 banks have met new minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, raising a combined N4.65 trillion to strengthen the financial system.
The apex bank disclosed this in a statement marking the end of the exercise, which commenced in March 2024 and drew participation from domestic and foreign investors.
The statement was jointly signed by the Director of Banking Supervision, Olubukola Akinwunmi, and the Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali.
The statement said “Over the 24-month period, Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65tn in new capital, strengthening the resilience of the financial system and enhancing its capacity to support the economy.”
The regulator said local investors accounted for 72.55 per cent of the funds, while international investors contributed 27.45 per cent, reflecting continued confidence in the sector.
Commenting on the outcome, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said in the statement, “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”
It added that while 33 banks have complied with the new thresholds, a few others are still undergoing regulatory and legal processes.
The statement noted, “The CBN confirms that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme.
“A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.
“All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.”
The apex bank stressed that the exercise was executed without disrupting banking operations, ensuring uninterrupted access to services nationwide.
It further stated that key prudential indicators have improved, particularly capital adequacy ratios, which remain above global Basel benchmarks.
The minimum ratios were set at 10 per cent for regional and national banks and 15 per cent for banks with international licences.
The bank also said the recapitalisation coincided with a gradual exit from regulatory forbearance, a move it said improved asset quality, strengthened balance sheet transparency, and enhanced overall stability.
To preserve these gains, the CBN said it has reinforced its risk-based supervision framework, mandating periodic stress tests and adequate capital buffers for banks.
It added that supervisory and prudential guidelines would be reviewed regularly to strengthen governance, risk management, and resilience across the sector.
“The successful completion of the programme establishes a stronger and more resilient banking system, better positioned to support lending, mobilise savings, and withstand domestic and global shocks,” the statement said.
The Tide learnt that foreign capital inflows into Nigeria’s banking sector rose by 93.25 per cent year-on-year to $13.53bn in 2025, up from $7.00bn recorded in 2024, amid the ongoing recapitalisation drive by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics capital importation report showed that the banking sector remained the dominant destination for foreign capital, accounting for $13.53bn of the total $23.22bn recorded in 2025, representing 58.26 per cent of total inflows, up from 56.81 per cent in 2024.
The surge reflects heightened investor interest in Nigerian banks as they raised fresh capital to meet new regulatory thresholds introduced by the apex bank, with industry-wide recapitalisation activities driving large-scale inflows across all quarters of the year.
However, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) recently raised concerns over weak credit flows to small businesses despite recent banking sector reforms.
The CPPE, led by a renowned economist, Dr Muda Yusuf, acknowledged that the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise by the CBN has strengthened the financial system, but warned that the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful support for the real economy.
The facility will be disbursed through participating Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), which will in turn extend the loans to their customers, particularly SMEs, as they directly interface with businesses at the grassroots level.
The Executive Director of COMCIN, Mr. Micheal Ogbaa who represented the Chairman, Dr. Iredele Oyedele (FCA, FCCA), said the initiative is designed to strengthen micro-lending institutions and expand access to finance for grassroots entrepreneurs, particularly women and youths in the informal sector.
Ogbaa explained that COMCIN does not lend directly to individuals but works through its network of microfinance and cooperative institutions, which in turn provide loans to end users.
“We came together to advocate for the microfinance ecosystem. Commercial banks often exclude people at the grassroots, but our members are positioned to reach them. This facility will empower them to do more,” he said.
He noted that the loan scheme offers low interest rates and flexible repayment plans, making it more accessible to small business owners.
According to him, about 90 percent of beneficiaries are expected to be women, who play a key role in sustaining families and driving economic activities at the local level.
“Our focus is on traders, service providers, and players in the informal sector. These are the real movers of the economy. By supporting them, we are strengthening families and contributing to national development,” he added.
Ogbaa disclosed that eligible SMEs with proven integrity and business track records could access up to N5 million each through participating micro-lending institutions. The rollout has commenced in Lagos and will extend to Abuja, Enugu, and other regions, including the South-West, South-East, and North-East.
He said 12 micro-lending institutions have already benefited from the scheme, while 85 applications are currently being processed under the pilot phase.
“Our target is to reach at least 100,000 SMEs nationwide. We are building a platform that connects funding partners with credible micro-lending institutions, creating a reliable channel for financial inclusion,” Ogbaa said.
He added that COMCIN is also working to attract larger funding pools from development finance institutions and private investors, noting that successful implementation of the pilot phase would boost confidence and unlock more capital for SMEs.
“We have seen encouraging testimonies from early beneficiaries. As we demonstrate transparency and efficiency, more institutions will be willing to channel funds through us,” he said.
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