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Oil Price Fall And Nigeria’s Economy

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At the 7th All Nigeria
Guild of Editors conference held in Benin, the Edo State capital on Thursday, September 22, 2011, the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, raised alarm that should oil  price drop below $80 per barrel in the international market, some state governments in Nigeria would not be able to pay salaries to their workers.
El-Rufai, who was speaking on the topic, “Perspectives on the Cost of Governance in Nigeria”, had strongly noted that pegging of oil price as high as $75 then in the national budget was unrealistic and not good for Nigeria’s economy.
The minister was being as prophetic as many individuals and organizations who believed that the nation’s economy which is oil dominated would be in a quagmire, should any unforeseen surprises affect the oil price in the global market.
Various experts had also, for too long been consistent in expressing strong need for drastic reduction in the high cost of Nigerian governance which gulps as high as 25% of the annual budget and one of the highest in the world.
They had equally suggested diversification of the economy from oil to other sectors particularly agriculture which hold high promises for food on the table of the average Nigerian, mass employment, raw material for industrialization and foreign exchange earning.
While most nations of the world had strategized to contain such possible economic fears, most African governments also took bold steps in preparations for the economic uncertainties, but some deaf-and-dumb governments had preferred what goes directly into the individual pockets of the leaders than the general good of the citizens. Billions of Dollars meant for constituency funds, furniture extravagant travelling allowances, amongst others find their ways to the law makers and their crowd of primal aides.
Today, the reality is not only knocking at our doors but is quite here with us. The present systematic drop in the oil price which experts predict could slide far below $50 per barrel benchmark before the end of 2015 has become Nigeria’s undoing.
Many state governments in Nigeria today are owing months of salaries arrears to their workers while contractors have abandoned projects execution because the oil price then predicted had fallen below budgetary calculations and states lack the funds to pay.
Some private schools in Port Harcourt have already given notice of increase in school fees, landlords are also threatening to raise rent, labour unions are ironically agitating for pay rise in view of recent devaluation of Naira occasioned by dramatic drop of oil price in global market even as state governments insist they would not review the $65 per barrel benchmark on which they proposed their 2015 budgets. Where would these excoriations take the nation to in the present economic situation determined by global economic reality?
An economist, George Clement, is of the view that time has come for Nigeria to elect leaders who have the capacity to proffer solutions to the socio-economic challenges confronting the nation as against empty promises for which most Nigerian political leaders are known.
“The era of touts aspiring for public offices should be over. It is time to look beyond sweet talks and empty promises now that campaign period in Nigeria is around the corner”, said Clement.
He said, “our leaders had since the oil boom of the 70s refused to do the right thing. Billions of Naira had consistently been swallowed up by the pockets of fraudulent leaders”, he remarked noting that the future generations may have nothing to be proud of about their nation if the real change is not effected.
Another respondent, Mrs Mary Jonathan, in her own reaction is challenging the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to trace the loots of the nation wherever they might have been hidden.
“Yes, it  appears late but not too late. We cannot continue to wallow in poverty in a rich country while few persons in the name of politics continue to cart away our resources”, she stressed.
Jonathan appealed to the Federal Government to review the pump price downward to reflect the price of oil in the global market. “We cannot afford to pay more when actually the price has fallen. The N97 per litre of fuel is no longer realistic”, she maintained.
A civil servant, Makel Ndah, in his own reaction called for upward review of workers salary. “Since the Naira has been devalued, its exchange power has become weak, it is important that the government reviews workers salary upward to meet with the current market reality”.
A landlord in Port Harcourt Chief Clifford Nweke, said,” it is obvious that house rent would be reviewed since government has started to have a second look at the Naira.”
We are all Nigeirans, operating in the same market, so what affects one should equally affect the other. Yes some people will say landlords are wicked shylocks, but that is mere sentiment”, he maintained.
A private school proprietor who pleaded anonymity said, “we had our first Parent Teachers Meeting last week and the issue of increase of salaries was raised by the teachers and I told the parents to pray and watch because for me to pay higher workers salary means that the fees charged students would also be reviewed upward.
“Please don’t get me wrong, we have not increased school fees yet. What I am saying is that we in my school are studying the socio-economic variables. If workers salary goes up and other schools readjust to meet with the reality, we here would also adjust because we are part of the society”, he explained.
A Port Harcourt- based public analyst, Christian Nnamdi, said the issue calls for caution. “There is no need to panic yet. It is not a Nigerian thing but a global phenomenon. It does not affect only Nigeria but other nations of the world. Nigeria has many antidotes to the problem. So all we need to do is study the situation to know the dynamic nature of the change.
According to Nnamdi, the nation should not leave everything in the hands of politicians. “We need to protect the economy from the excesses of selfish Nigerian politicians and one way of doing that is to gather together some technocrats and experts in various fields especially economists. Let the think- tank develop an economic plan that should guide the policies and programmes.
Call it 25 years economic development plan. So that whichever political group that takes the mantle of leadership, will have to build whatever programme from the economic blue print.
Nnamdi blamed the woe of the nation on inconsistency of leadership, stressing that government should be seen as a continuation from where the former ends. “But you see, in Nigeria, any new administration is in the habit of abandoning the programmes of the previous administration at the detriment of so much fund sunk into such projects because they want to take credit.
“But with a long term economic development plan, new government can no longer abandon projects started by the former government. It has to inherit it and complete it for the people. This idea will make nonsense of the penchant for second term which is common in Nigeria,” he maintained.
It would be recalled that discovery of shale oil which increase supply in American oil market, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil has affected the oil supply in the global market. This high supply has reduced oil price in the global market and Nigeria, whose economy remains oil-driven is directly affected.
Nigeria whose budget depends on oil has been forced to review its oil benchmark resulting in austerity measures to contain the economic downturn.
Medium Term Expenditure framework which the Finance Minister, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, submitted to the National Assembly, scaled down the nation’s budgetary estimate for 2015 to N4.661 trillion as against an initial N4.817 trillion.

 

Chris Oluoh

Some Transformers donated by the lawmaker representing Oyigbo in the RSHA Hon. Okechukwu .A. Nwuogu

Some Transformers donated by the lawmaker representing Oyigbo in the RSHA Hon. Okechukwu .A. Nwuogu

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Oil & Energy

Resource Wars Are Here and Oil Is the First Casualty

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In just over a year, the world saw several instances of a choked supply of commodities indispensable for today’s economies and military capabilities.
From China’s restrictions on rare earths and critical minerals supply to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, policymakers and analysts began to realize that the control of oil, critical minerals, rare earths, and magnets is as important as building and maintaining stockpiles of advanced weapons. It also became clear that without these resources, defense and military capabilities could be weakened. The actual arms race goes hand in hand with the new battle for the resources that underpin economic, manufacturing, and advanced military development.
“Great-power competition has returned to basics: who controls the physical resources that modern economies and militaries run on,” Alice Gower, a partner at London-based political-risk advisory firm Azure Strategy, told the Wall Street Journal.
“Energy, critical minerals and industrial capacity are leverage, not just economic assets,” Gower added.
The war in the Middle East and the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz laid bare the reality of choked energy supply. The world’s most vital oil and LNG chokepoint, through which 20% of daily global trade flowed before the Iran war, has been essentially closed for most tanker traffic for more than three weeks.
The massive supply shock, the worst disruption in the oil market in history, showed that the world is dependent on energy resources, and that geography and actual physical supply matter. With so much oil and gas stranded in the Middle East, oil prices spiked to above $100 per barrel, natural gas prices in Europe doubled, and Asian spot LNG prices hit multi-year highs.
The precarious situation in the Middle East is reverberating across Asia, the region most dependent on oil and LNG supply from the Persian Gulf. Asian refiners pay sky-high premiums for non-Middle Eastern crude, many are considering cutting or have already cut processing rates, and countries have started to enact fuel-preserving measures, from four-day work weeks to bans on fuel exports.
In Europe, the gas refilling season will be the toughest yet, as Asia is outbidding Europe for spot LNG supply after Qatar’s LNG is effectively sidelined and full capacity may not return for up to five years following Iranian missile attacks last week.
Even the ‘energy independent’ United States, the world’s top oil producer, is not independent when it comes to global supply shocks of such magnitude.
The national average price of gasoline is approaching $4 per gallon nationwide, more than $1 a gallon compared to a month ago, before the start of the war.
Oil is a global resource, traded on a global market, and prices reflect fundamentals, although they have been driven by hectic trading activity on geopolitics in recent weeks. But the fundamentals show that there is no resource available to plug the gap that has opened in Middle Eastern supply. Producers are slashing output due to a lack of storage capacity, which further delays a rapid recovery in supply when this mess ends.
All this goes to show that whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz has enormous leverage on inflicting global economic pain.
While the world is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the race for rare earths and critical minerals continues, with the U.S. and Western countries scrambling to dent China’s dominance.
Since China restricted exports of rare earth elements early in 2025, Western countries have raced to create mine-to-magnet supply chains to reduce dependence on Chinese supply in the key military and automotive industries.
China holds a 59% share of the mining of rare earths, 91% in refining, and a whopping 94% in magnet manufacturing, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.
The U.S. has responded by taking stakes in minerals mining companies, the launch of a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, known as Project Vault, and is leading efforts to break the Chinese stronghold on the pricing of these minerals critical for the defense and auto industries and national security.
Chinese dominance could be eroded, but it would take years.
Still, rising neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) supply from countries like the U.S. and Australia is set to reduce China’s market share to 69% by 2030 from 90% in 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) said in new research this month.
“We’re seeing a surge in rare-earth investment as modern technologies demand more critical materials,” said Jack Baxter, Global Metals & Mining Analyst at BI and co-author of the report.
“That said, we anticipate a significant shortfall in supply due to trade uncertainties, with lead times as long as 10 years to get new material out of the ground,” Baxter added.
“This will give pricing power to the few producers that currently are able to supply critical materials outside of China, fracturing the globalized market.”
Amid fractured markets and high geopolitical uncertainty, one thing is certain – the next arms race, alongside the actual arms race, will be for control of key resources such as oil and critical minerals.
By Tsvetana Paraskova
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Oil & Energy

Transcorp Energy, Renewvia Partner On Renewable Energy Gap

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Transcorp Energy Limited and Renewvia Solar Nigeria Limited have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly develop renewable energy projects across Nigeria.
The move is aimed at addressing the persistent power deficit that has crumble businesses in the nation.
The agreement also outlines a longer-term plan to expand operations across Africa, positioning both firms to tap into growing demand for clean and reliable electricity.
The partnership would target commercial, industrial and residential consumers, as well as underserved communities, through a mix of off-grid and grid-connected energy solutions.
Beyond electricity provision, the collaboration would explore the aggregation and monetisation of Renewable Energy Credits generated from the projects, adding a commercial layer to the clean energy rollout.
The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Transcorp Energy, Chris Ezeafulukwe, said the initiative aligns with the company’s broader strategy to expand access to sustainable power.
He noted that combining grid and decentralised energy systems would enable the company to deliver reliable electricity directly to end-users across different segments of the economy.
Chief Executive Officer of Renewvia, Trey Jarrard, described Nigeria as a critical market for the company’s African ambitions.
According to him, the partnership provides a platform to scale operations rapidly by leveraging established infrastructure and local expertise, while delivering cost-effective and resilient energy solutions.
Both companies said the agreement lays the foundation for a scalable pan-African renewable energy business, capable of supporting diverse markets and accelerating the continent’s transition to cleaner power sources.
The collaboration comes amid increasing pressure on governments and private sector players to deploy sustainable energy solutions to bridge electricity gaps, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and support economic growth across Africa.
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Oil & Energy

IYC Tasks Niger Delta Governors On  Oil Field Bidding  ….Decries Exclusion of Host Communities

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The Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) Worldwide has raised concerns over the continued exclusion of host communities from the governance of oil resources, urging Niger Delta governors to take decisive steps by bidding for oil blocs and marginal fields.
The council warned that failure to act would allow external interests to continue dominating the region’s oil assets, despite their location within host communities.
Secretary-General of the council, Maobuye Nangi-Obu, started this at the stakeholders’ meeting organised by the Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited , with participants drawn from Rivers, Abia and Imo States, in Port Harcourt, recently.
“It is time for state governments in the Niger Delta, especially Rivers State, to form oil companies that can bid for marginal fields within their territories”, he said.
Nangi-Obu expressed concern over the reported listing of about 25 marginal oil fields for allocation, noting that many were located in host communities but allegedly being assigned to non-indigenes.
In his words “They sit in Abuja and decide what happens in our region, yet we are not part of the oil governance of our own resources”.
He explained that marginal fields, though considered uneconomical by major oil firms, remain viable for indigenous operators, adding that their allocation had continued to fuel grievances in the Niger Delta.
The IYC scribe also warned of the implications of directional drilling, describing it as a growing threat to host communities.
“There could be oil wells in your community, and somebody elsewhere could be drilling that oil without your knowledge,” he cautioned.
On environmental concerns, Nangi-Obu condemned the persistent gas flaring in the region, blaming both international and local operators for failing to invest in gas processing infrastructure.
He, however, commended Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited for its engagement with host communities.
“Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited is doing the right thing by engaging stakeholders. Not all companies are doing what they are doing,” he stated.
Traditional rulers at the meeting, further acknowledged improvements linked to the company’s activities in their areas.
The Eze Ekpeye-Logbo, King Kevin Anugwo, represented by Dr Patricia Ogbonnaya, noted that “aquatic life that disappeared due to pollution is gradually returning,” attributing the development to improved environmental conditions.
Similarly, Chairman of the K-Dere Council of Chiefs, Chief Batom Mitee, said, “There is now peace in our community,” stressing,  increased oil production must translate into tangible benefits for host communities.
By: King Onunwor
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