In order to avoid a repeat of the devastating flooding that affected most parts of the country last year, the Nigerian Metrological Agency (NiMet) has released the 2023 seasonal climate prediction.
The predictions is a document usually released in February to sensitise the nation on changing climate patterns ahead of the year.
Prof. Mansur Bako Matazu, the Director General and Chief Executive Officer of NiMet, said the early warning followed a marching order by President Muhammadu Buhari for improvement in providing early warning services after the nation’s experience in 2022 where almost all the states were flooded, with loss of lives and properties, and damage to infrastructure nationwide.
Meanwhile, Mr. Hadi Sirika, the Minister of Aviation, said that one of the effective ways of mitigating climate-induced disasters is the provision of Early Warning Services.
Sirika however urged Nigerians to take advantage of the early warning, stressing that early warnings must be matched by early A action so that it can translate to disaster risk reduction in Nigeria.
“Talking of performance, one of the effective ways of mitigating climate-induced disasters is the provision of Early Warning Services.
NiMet over the years has been the pacesetter in Early Warning Services for all weather and climate sensitive activities across the country.
However, the early Warnings must be matched by Early Action so that it can translate to disaster risk reduction in Nigeria. This has been amplified by the recent flood of 2022 across several states in Nigeria” he said.
Earlier, the Director General of NiMet revealed that the 2023 beginning of rainfall (onset) is predicted to be earlier than normal in most parts of the country .
According to him, the prediction shows that the earliest onset will likely occur on or around the 2nd of March 2023 in the coastal zone of the south-south states of Bayelsa, Rivers , Akwa Ibom and environs.
The NiMet boss stated that some parts of Katsina, Zamfara , Kano, Jigawa, Yobe in the North, Imo and Rivers in the south are likely to experience a delayed onset when compared to the long term averages in the areas .
He said the onset dates in parts of Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe , Kwara , Oyo, Ogun and Lagos are likely to be near normal .
According to him, normal to above normal annual rainfall amounts are expected over most parts of the country excepts in parts of Yobe
He said an early End of Season (EoS) is predicted over parts of the South (especially in Osun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and eastern parts of Ogun and Lagos) and parts of Yobe, Adamawa, Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi.
“However, an extended rainfall season is predicted over parts of Gombe, Kaduna, Kwara, Enugu, Anambra, western Ogun, and Lagos. The End of Season period is expected to range from the 26th of September till 25th of December.
The length of growing season in most places in the country is likely to be near the long-term average, except for some parts of the northern states such as Katsina, Jigawa, and Kano where shorter than the long-term average length of the growing season is anticipated.
“The season is expected to range from 84 to 283 days. Abuja and surrounding States are expected to witness between 170 and 230 days.
“The annual total rainfall is predicted to be Normal to above normal in most parts of the country.
However, in parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Bauchi, Jigawa, Kaduna and FCT that are likely to observe below normal to near normal annual rainfall amounts.

“ The annual rainfall amount is expected to range from 420 mm in the far northernmost parts to 3253 mm in the coastal areas. However

“In 2023, we should also prepare for its occurrence between June and early July as dry spell lasting between 15 to 21 days is in the forecast, especially from the central parts of the country to the North”.

Matazu said the early prediction will allow for greater collaborations among relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) in fighting against the effects for climate change.

“The President has given a marching order for improvement in providing early warning services and we took that for our directive and challenges also and that is why we have released the document as early as January and this will give about two to three months. “Lead time. Lead Time is the difference between the time you release a forecast and the time of occurrence of the season. So, for the southern season, we give about two months lease time and in the north, it will be around four to five months of leave time.

“So, and that is enough for all MDAs, government departments and agencies that federal, state and local government levels to key in and integrate this focus information into their planning activities in different sectors.

“The summary of the focus is that this year is going to be a little bit a normal year. Unlike 2023 but with the focus of extreme events, evidently we have time of fixed rainfall between July to September and Sunshine because of high soil moisture we are expecting flood flows around cities are also expecting riverine flood areas that live within the floodplain areas. And then also who states in the north, we are expecting a dry spell that will occur between the months of June and July for the period of two to three weeks” he said.

By:  John Bibor