Business
‘Nigeria May Face $20bn Loss In Export Revenue’
Nigeria and four other oil producers on the African continent could each be facing $20billion or more in lost export revenue this year as global oil demand is estimated never to exceed 2019 levels, with energy markets having reached a tipping point, a new report showed, last Thursday.
The PricewaterhouseCo-opers’ (PwC) Africa Oil & Gas Review 2020, estimated a 19 per cent fall in oil production for the top five African producers including Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Libya and Egypt.
The report underscored the reversal of the continent’s gains this year compared with last year when mega exploration and development projects were announced.
“With the oil price at approximately $40 per barrel, oil-exporting countries will experience long-term decline in their export revenues as a result of the renewed weakness in global oil prices, coupled with the accelerated transition to renewables in key importing countries,” the report said.
The report, entit-led: Energising a New Tomorrow, focused on 20 African countries with links to the oil and gas industry and found significant investment and project delays across the continent, including Mozambique.
Oil majors including BP, Shell, Total, Eni and ExxonMobil have said the start-up dates of their major projects were expected now to be delayed by up to three years, and smaller projects may be cancelled.
“Covid-19 has not only caused the biggest global oil demand slump in history, at nearly 40 times worse than the global financial crisis of 2007, but has, in fact, accelerated the global energy transition by as much as five years, as the developed world uses the renewable energy transition to anchor economic stimulus packages and new economic diversification,” the report said.
It said African oil producers had been hit hard by a major drop in export revenues, dampened economic activity as a result of lockdown measures, severely impacted fiscal reserves and overall lower growth prospects, thus setting some of the largest economies on the continent back by up to five years just to recover to pre-Covid-19 levels of gross domestic product.
The report noted: “It is clear that, from a long-term energy markets perspective, African economies need to reconsider their reliance on fossil fuel exports and will have to develop their renewable energy and green economy strategies.”
The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc for the oil market when oil markets dropped to $37 a barrel for the first time in history, which meant sellers had to pay their buyers as a result of shortfalls in global storage and the ability to accept contract delivery.
In terms of gas, the report said that despite the estimated six per cent decline in gas exports in 2020 across the top five African gas-exporting countries, demand was expected to recover quickly from 2021 in mature markets and show steady growth in emerging markets.
“Much of Africa’s supply growth will come from Nigeria, but Tanzania, Mauritania and Senegal are also aiming to contribute to rising supply,” the report said.
The report also said that despite years of policy indecision and a stalled renewable generation plan, South Africa had made strong progress in confirming its commitment to a dynamic energy policy environment and greening initiatives.
The Minister of State for Industry, Trade and Investment, John Enoh said this at the 8th annual induction and conference of the Chartered Institute of Project Managers of Nigeria (CIPMN).
He explained that abandoned projects continue to lock up public funds that could have been used for infrastructure development, industrial growth, job creation and essential social services.
Represented by the ministry’s Permanent Secretary, Chris Osa Isokpunwu, he said the impact goes beyond financial losses, as incomplete projects affect communities and limit access to important public services
He cited examples of that remain unopened, schools that cannot accommodate students, roads that fail to connect communities and electricity projects that have not delivered their intended benefits.
The Registrar-General and Chief Executive Officer of CIPMN, Henry Ifeanyi Mbadiwe, also identified poor project management as a major challenge affecting development in Nigeria.
He revealed that the institute had developed a project management curriculum for Nigerian universities, which has received approval from the National Universities Commission (NUC). The programme is expected to enable universities to offer project management as a bachelor’s degree.
Mbadiwe further referenced findings by the Presidential Projects Assessment Committee, which identified 11,886 ongoing federal capital projects in 2011, with an estimated financial commitment of ?7.78 trillion.
He noted that inadequate planning, supervision, accountability and implementation were among the factors contributing to the abandonment of projects across the country.
The minister called for stronger project management structures across ministries, departments and agencies to improve planning, monitoring and evaluation.
He added that the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment had introduced a 90-day implementation reporting cycle to strengthen transparency and monitor the progress of government programmes.
Ikenga said the company remained committed to Nigeria’s power sector and would continue investing in its operations despite the challenging business environment.
He spoke in Lagos at the third edition of the Shell Power Conference, themed “Powering Nigeria’s Progress: Turning Ambition and Action into Sustainable Impact”.
The Transcorp Power chief said the company would sustain electricity generation, invest in its facilities and deliver value to shareholders.
“Transcorp Power is a long-term player, not a short-term player. This year has been challenging, but what is important is getting power to schools, hospitals and businesses to power progress,” he said.
Ikenga said the company’s focus on operational efficiency and investment had strengthened its contribution to Nigeria’s electricity supply.
He disclosed that since acquiring the Ughelli Power Plant in Delta State in 2013, Transcorp Power had quadrupled its available generation capacity.
He also said the company became the first privatised power generation firm to receive a post-privatisation discharge certificate after fulfilling all its privatisation obligations.
The company’s unaudited results for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, showed a profit before tax of N83.1 billion, while its profit-before-tax margin rose to 31.2 per cent from 29.6 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
Its total assets rose to 11.7 per cent amounting to N629.5 billion, while shareholders’ funds grew 8.9 per cent to N199.8 billion. Cash and cash equivalents also rose to N10.3 billion, supported by improved collections.
On the company’s contribution to grid stability, Ikenga said Transcorp Power’s black-start capability enabled it to restart operations without relying on electricity from the national grid.
He explained that the capability allowed the company to support power restoration following grid disturbances, helping to restore electricity supply to homes, businesses and industries.
Ikenga noted that Nigeria had an installed electricity generation capacity of about 13,000 megawatts, with an estimated potential of 50 gigawatts, adding that realising the potential would require effective coordination across the entire value chain.
“Everything in the value chain has to work,” he said.
He called for stronger collaboration among federal and state governments, regulators and private-sector operators, alongside increased private investment, to build a sustainable electricity market.
This was contained in a statement issued on Thursday by his Senior Special Assistant on Communications and Press Secretary, Maryann Duke.
The statement said Oyedele pointed to “improved digital systems, including electronic invoicing, as a key driver behind a record of N33tn in government revenue collected between January and October 2026.”
The minister said the performance demonstrated the potential of technology to improve revenue administration, strengthen compliance and increase efficiency across government institutions.
Speaking on the theme, ‘Digital Sovereignty and Ethics: Guarding the Economy for the Next Generation,’ Oyedele warned that Nigeria risked losing substantial economic opportunities if it continued to depend heavily on foreign digital infrastructure.
Citing Nigerian Communications Commission figures, he disclosed that the country recorded more than 157 million active internet subscriptions as of May 2026.
He explained that these connections generated significant volumes of information through financial transactions, healthcare, education and taxation.
However, citing estimates from the Nigeria Data Protection Commission, Oyedele said as much as 90 per cent of the country’s data was hosted abroad.
According to him, the situation has implications for foreign exchange expenditure, employment opportunities, technological skills and Nigeria’s control over information generated by its citizens.
He compared the country’s reliance on foreign digital infrastructure with its historical dependence on imported refined petroleum products, warning against a situation where Nigerian data would be processed abroad and the resulting services sold back to domestic users.
The minister consequently advocated greater investment in local data infrastructure, technical expertise, cybersecurity and predictable regulations to enable Nigerian businesses to capture more value from the digital economy.
He clarified that digital sovereignty should not translate into technological isolation but should strengthen Nigeria’s capacity to participate competitively in international markets.
Addressing graduating students, Oyedele urged young Nigerians to become developers of technological solutions rather than remain primarily consumers of products created elsewhere.
He identified artificial intelligence as both a disruptive force and an opportunity for innovation, advising graduates to acquire relevant digital skills alongside critical thinking, creativity, sound judgement and integrity.
The minister also cautioned against irresponsible online behaviour, explaining that digital footprints increasingly influence employment prospects, commercial relationships and professional credibility.
Oyedele outlined five priorities for graduates, including continuous learning, value creation, integrity, responsible digital citizenship and active participation in national development.
“Your degree is evidence of what you have learned. Your competence will demonstrate what you can do. Your character will reveal who you truly are,” he told the graduating students.
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