Business
MPC: Expert Predicts Rise In Lending Rate
The Chief Executive Officer
of Time Economics, Dr Ogho Okiti, has predicted that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would tighten the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 12 to 15 per cent.
Okiti made the prediction in an interview with newsmen on Sunday in Abuja.
He expressed the firm’s prediction ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting scheduled to hold between Monday and Tuesday.
At the last MPC meeting in March, the MPC raised MPR by 100 basis points from 11 per cent to 12 per cent and raised the Cash Reserve Ratio by 250 basis points from 20 to 22.50 per cent.
The Liquidity Ratio was retained at 30 per cent and the asymmetric corridor was narrowed from +200 and -700 basis points to +200 and -500 basis points.
“Following the decisions made at the last meeting along with the committee bias towards price stability, we anticipate that the committee will move toward further rate tightening by raising the Monetary Policy Rate.
“However, we expect they will make little or no adjustment to the Cash Reserve Requirements and the Liquidity Ratio, following very poor growth figures.
“In summary, we anticipate MPR to be increased by 200 basis points to 15 per cent, maintain asymmetric corridor of +200/–500 basis points around the midpoint of the MPR and maintain CRR at 22.5 per cent.
“Also, the Liquidity Ratio will be maintained at 30 per cent,” he said.
Okiti said it was unlikely that the committee would make changes on the exchange rate, given that there was already an expectation of devaluation.
He said the expectation was responsible for the further widening of the gap between the official and the parallel rates, adding that the committee was unlikely to bow to market pressures.
Okiti explained that the slowing economic growth, continued rise in inflation and fuel price would play a key role in the decisions the committee would take at its meeting.
“The meeting will hold amidst what is probably the most severe combination of shocks in the economy since the start of the century.
“The pace of economic growth in the first quarter of 2016 fell by -0.4 per cent from the 2.11 per cent and 3.96 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter, 2015 and the first quarter of 2016.
“Headline inflation index continued its northward movement for the third consecutive month to advance to 13.7 per cent in the month of April.
“The upward advancement in general price levels by 90 basis points were driven by marked increase in both food and core sub-index.
“This increased by 13.2 per cent and 13.4 per cent respectively, compared to 12.74 per cent and 12.17 per cent recorded in March.
“These developments were largely driven by the worsening fuel scarcity which has had crippling effects on business operations and transport costs across the country,’’ he said.
Okiti said the foreign exchange situation, which continues to negatively impact on costs of imported goods, need to be improved and a strong fiscal policy blueprint should be provided to stimulate growth.
Business
SMEs Dev: Firms Launch N100m Loan Scheme
The facility will be disbursed through participating Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), which will in turn extend the loans to their customers, particularly SMEs, as they directly interface with businesses at the grassroots level.
The Executive Director of COMCIN, Mr. Micheal Ogbaa who represented the Chairman, Dr. Iredele Oyedele (FCA, FCCA), said the initiative is designed to strengthen micro-lending institutions and expand access to finance for grassroots entrepreneurs, particularly women and youths in the informal sector.
Ogbaa explained that COMCIN does not lend directly to individuals but works through its network of microfinance and cooperative institutions, which in turn provide loans to end users.
“We came together to advocate for the microfinance ecosystem. Commercial banks often exclude people at the grassroots, but our members are positioned to reach them. This facility will empower them to do more,” he said.
He noted that the loan scheme offers low interest rates and flexible repayment plans, making it more accessible to small business owners.
According to him, about 90 percent of beneficiaries are expected to be women, who play a key role in sustaining families and driving economic activities at the local level.
“Our focus is on traders, service providers, and players in the informal sector. These are the real movers of the economy. By supporting them, we are strengthening families and contributing to national development,” he added.
Ogbaa disclosed that eligible SMEs with proven integrity and business track records could access up to N5 million each through participating micro-lending institutions. The rollout has commenced in Lagos and will extend to Abuja, Enugu, and other regions, including the South-West, South-East, and North-East.
He said 12 micro-lending institutions have already benefited from the scheme, while 85 applications are currently being processed under the pilot phase.
“Our target is to reach at least 100,000 SMEs nationwide. We are building a platform that connects funding partners with credible micro-lending institutions, creating a reliable channel for financial inclusion,” Ogbaa said.
He added that COMCIN is also working to attract larger funding pools from development finance institutions and private investors, noting that successful implementation of the pilot phase would boost confidence and unlock more capital for SMEs.
“We have seen encouraging testimonies from early beneficiaries. As we demonstrate transparency and efficiency, more institutions will be willing to channel funds through us,” he said.
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