The All Progressives
Congress (APC) recently released the guideline for the conduct of its primary election upon which it would pick its presidential candidate for the 2015 general polls. According to the guideline, the collection of the expression of interest forms for the presidential primary election will commence on 24th September, 2014, while sales of nomination forms will start on September 25 and end on October 2.
To prepare the minds of aspirants ready for the presidential race, the APC has also slated October 25, 2014 for its special national convention when it will choose its standard flag bearer. Similarly, the APC has adopted what it called the “modified direct primaries” to pick the party’s candidates for the 2015 with a renewed hope to wrestle political power from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which is holding the helm of affairs at the centre since 1999.
APC, an amalgamation of three opposition parties of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Political Change (CPC) , the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and a fraction of Governor Rochas Okorocha-led All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), says the formation of a mega opposition party is a better and sure strategy of dethroning the ruling PDP and installing the desired change in the polity in line with  APC’s roadmap.
Political observers believe that the character and future of APC will be defined and determined by its standard bearers. The major standard bearer is the presidential flag bearer and contenders for the presidential ticket, however, are not living anything to chance in order to secure the ticket.
The modified direct primaries approved by the APC involve participation of about 300,000 party members who will be voting to determine the party’s presidential candidate. This has since caused a stir among aspirants, and in some cases, forcing them to change their strategies of winning the soul of the party.
Though, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) provided either direct or indirect primary, APC opted for the direct; a method that will ensure the participation of the largest number of party members. “We call it modified because we are also aware of certain constraints of getting our 20 million members or thereabout to queue for election, especially in areas, where we have security challenges like Yobe, Adamawa and Borno States. We are working out a formula that will still enable the largest members of our party to participate,” APC spokesman, Lai Mohammed, told journalists at the end of the inaugural meeting of the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC)  in Abuja.
One of the strongest contenders for the APC presidential ticket is Maj-Gen Muhammadu Buhari, a former head of state, who, if  given the ticket will be taken the fourth shot at the presidency. Buhari, who many described at a serial presidential candidate, was the ANPP presidential flag bearer in 2003 and 2007 respectively, but lost to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. In 2011, Buhari became  the CPC presidential candidate, and again it was a fruitless attempt as he lost to incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.
Despite Buhari’s three unsucessful attempts at the presidency, many of his supporters maintain that the ex-head of state remains the best material for the APC presidential race.
The South East Zonal spokesman of APC, Osita Okechukwu, said “giving all the indices, the APC already has a de facto presidential candidate in person of Buhari.”
Relying on Article 20 of the APC constitution, Okechukwu argues that for nomination of candidates either for party offices or presidential ticket, the consensus option will be first explored.
While acknowledging that there are “a lot of quality people in the APC,” Okechukwu also doubted “any person who the leadership of the APC will tell Buhari to step down for.” This is why Buhari’s chance of becoming APC flag bearer is a fait accompli. According to Okechukwu, if the consensus option is explored, Buhari stands the chance of landing on automatic ticket.
Even though  the  APC spokesman was categorical that there will be no automatic ticket for Buhari and other presidential aspirants in the party, there are fears that the manoeuvres by certain forces in APC to make Buhari the party’s presidential candidate in 2015 is a bad omen, likely to tear the party apart.
A spokesman of the defunct CPC, Rotimi Fashakin, however, defended the plan to give Buhari automatic ticket. According to him, “of all the aspirants, only Buhari had the clout to defeat President Jonathan during the 2015 presidential election.”
Fashakin notes that “Buhari is the face against corruption in the country… Nigerians and the opposition know that it is only Buhari who can fight corruption in the country. He is the only one who can face President Jonathan during the election because of his antecedents.”
The claim that none of the other candidates in APC can match the popularity of Buhari either in the North or in the South is also strong. To seal the hope of those who may be rooting for another presidential candidate other than Buhari, Fashakin said it would be wrong for people to think that the supporters of Buhari would vote for any one that emerged apart from the former Head of State. He hinged his argument on the ground that “majority of the voters especially in the North, might not have faith in such a candidate.”
Another strong contender to APC presidential ticket is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Like Buhari, Atiku is an old bird to presidential race. In 2007, Atiku secured the defunct ACN presidential ticket and lost to late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Another attempt by Atiku in 2011 under the Peoples Democratic Party ended at the primaries where he lost to Jonathan.
Many may argue that Atiku has not recovered from the political loses, yet some party leaders sympathetic to Atiku’s cause believed that “the former vice president has the reach and the required contacts to mount a successful challenge to Jonathan and the PDP come 2015.”
Buhari may be reputed to have most party members on board but sources said “Atiku has what it takes to get the job done.” Apart of Atiku’s strategy is his overtures to APC governors from whom he reportedly promised to pick his running mate in return for their support.”
Furthermore, at the state party and local council levels, Atiku is known to have held consultative meetings with the party chairmen at those levels; a situation that has added value to the political fortune of the former Vice President. It is rumoured that Atiku may make a formal declaration of his presidential ambition in a matter of days to apparently position himself for the presidential contest in APC.
Atiku is using every opportuned fora to sell his potentials and what he stands for. In his goodwill message to the 2014 second plenary meeting of the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria in Warri, Delta State, Atiku called on catholic bishops to pray for the emergence of a God-fearing administration that would make Nigeria spiritually, morally and socially sanctified.
However, the rumoured  presidential ambition of the Speaker, House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, appeared to have been put on hold. Tambuwal who is reportedly set to dump PDP and join APC may have dropped his presidential ambition after consultations with some prominent politicians
According to a relaible source, “one thing is that he (Tambuwal) is a realist and knows how to cut his coat according to his cloth. The moment he sensed that it would be difficult for him to challenge political heavy weights such as Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubukar in the race for APC ticket, he changed his mind.”
Barring any last minute twists, Tambuwal, upon joining APC would seek instant waiver from the party leadership to contest the governorship election in Sokoto State. But analysts opined that Tambuwal is heading to “political wilderness,”
The political heavy weights like Buhari and Atiku in APC presidential race, notwithstanding, there are others aspiring for the race. They include Kano State governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso; Imo State governor, Rochas Okorocha; Senator Bukola Saraki and the publisher of the Leadership Newspaper, Sam Nda-Isiah. The Kwankwaso campaign group claimed that its candidate is still consulting, while many believed that the presidential aspirations of Okorocha, Saraki and Nda-Isiah only exist on pages of newspaper as they will soon bow to political exigencies.
Many see the battle for APC’s presidential ticket as a straight political contest between Buhari and Atiku with party leadership likely to settle for the former because, he (Buhari) reportedly enjoys greater popularity than the latter. Many people, however, expressed fear that the choice of either Buhari or Atiku for the APC presidential ticket portends danger for the party as supporters of the loosing aspirant may refuse to give their best in the 2015 polls. Worst still, the dust generated from the APC inaugural national convention is still unsettled. Resolving the acrimony arising from the convention is a herculean task the APC leadership will have to contend with.

Samuel Eleonu

Buhari and Atiku Abubakar