Business
Google Shares Performance Boosts Investors Optimism
Investors’ optimism for Google Inc is running high, setting the stage for another jump in its shares to an all-time peak after the Internet search company reports results Thursday.
Options investors appear to be betting on more gains for the stock, which hit a record high of $670.25 on January 4. The stock has since pulled back by about 6 percent, closing at $632.91 on Wednesday.
Traders have been purchasing Google calls, which grant the right to buy the stock at a fixed price up to a certain date, at a greater pace than its puts – or rights to sell the stock at a preset price – heading into earnings due after the market close on Thursday.
“The options market is positioned bullishly ahead of results. Call options have been bought over the past few weeks,” Credit Suisse equity derivatives strategist Terry Wilson said.
Investors have bought nearly two calls for every put option as a new position on three U.S. options exchanges over the past 10 sessions, according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research, an Ohio-based options research firm.
That call-to-put ratio of 1.93 is higher than 99 percent of the readings taken over the past year, suggesting bullish optimism heading into the results, said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer’s.
Google, which almost always reports earnings a day before options expiration, is known for volatile post-earnings moves in its shares. The company has beaten earnings estimates 77 percent of the time since the second quarter of 2005, said Kevin Pleines, analyst at Birinyi Associates, in a report on Wednesday, according to Reuters report.
After beating estimates, Google shares have opened higher 65 percent of the time, averaging a 4.1 percent gain the next morning, he said.
But after missing estimates, the stock opened lower 100 percent of the time for an average loss of 6.6 percent. Also on the day after results, from the open to the close, Google shares have traded lower 62 percent of the time, regardless of whether the results beat or miss, according to Pleines.
“This time traders are expecting slightly lower volatility as there appears to be greater confidence in the company’s ability to deliver solid results,” said Dan Nathan, founder of riskreversal.com, a New York-based firm specialising in options trade ideas.
Google’s fourth-quarter net revenue, which excludes fees shared with partner websites, is expected to jump 32 percent to $8.4 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
But there are voices of caution, warning that any negative surprise could put heavy selling pressure on the stock.
“Google is a stock that is surrounded by a lot of optimism from Wall Street analysts and option speculators. This sets a high bar on the earnings report, and any disappointing news could leave the stock vulnerable to the downside,” said Bell, of Schaeffer’s.
If the news is good, Bryan McCormick, an independent quantitative analyst at Deepfoo Analytics in Las Vegas, sees the first upside breakout for Google stock at $635.80, its 10-day moving average, which would put the stock back on the upside path it has been on since October.
If the news is bad, the stock is likely to break below its 50-day moving average at around $618.38, triggering a potential bearish pattern that could send the stock down to the $575 area, McCormick said.
The National Economic Council has expanded the mandate of its Ad-hoc Committee on Crude Oil Theft Prevention and Control to cover illegal mining.
This is just as the council raised the alarm that the nation’s solid minerals, including gold, are being mined and stolen.
Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, who chairs the committee, disclosed this while briefing State House correspondents after the 153rd NEC meeting chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, yesterday.
Uzodimma said the expanded mandate is part of the government’s efforts to curb resource theft and increase revenue from Nigeria’s solid minerals sector.
“The National Economic Council Ad-hoc Committee on Crude Oil Theft Prevention and Control, which I chair, presented an interim report today to the Council.
“NEC received our report with satisfaction and expanded our Terms of Reference to now also take interest in solid minerals, because our solid minerals are being mined and stolen and not adding to national revenue,” said Uzodma.
He noted that the expanded role would enable the committee to coordinate with the Ministry of Solid Minerals Development and other federal and subnational institutions to combat widespread illegal gold mining and other forms of mineral smuggling that have deprived the country of much-needed foreign exchange.
“Going forward, our committee, working with other government agencies, will look at how to ensure that the revenue of the country arising from solid minerals like gold and other forms of solid minerals are not allowed to be stolen,” the governor added.
NEC’s Ad-hoc Committee on Crude Oil Theft Prevention and Control was first established under former President Muhammadu Buhari in August 2022.
It was reconstituted under President Bola Tinubu in December 2023 with Uzodinma as chairman.
The committee was initially mandated to address the challenge of crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism.
Its creation followed rising oil theft that had crippled national production and forced international oil companies to shut down key pipelines.
At the time, oil production had crashed to around 700,000–800,000 barrels per day, far below Nigeria’s OPEC quota, costing the government billions of dollars in lost export revenue.
Uzodimma explained that through what he called a “collaborative approach” involving regulators, operators, and the security forces, the committee had helped raise daily crude oil production to over 1.7 million barrels per day in the past 22 months.
The governor stated, “Before May 29, 2023, when President Bola Tinubu was sworn in, our crude oil production was around 700,000 to 800,000 barrels a day.
“Working with stakeholders, the regulators, operators in the industry, and the Navy, we were able to involve all the governors of crude oil-producing states and raise different security organisations.
“You would agree with me that as I speak, daily production is now in excess of 1.7 million barrels a day, and cases of pipeline vandalism and vandalisation of oil assets have also been on the decline.”
The council, he said, was satisfied with the progress and decided to deploy the same model of intergovernmental coordination, private-sector partnership, and multi-agency surveillance to the mining sector, plagued by resource theft.
“We are determined to ensure that crude oil production and gas are properly preserved for the benefit of our citizens.
“Now, with this new directive, we will also protect our gold and solid mineral assets,” Uzodinma added.
Nigeria’s illegal mining economy, particularly in gold, lithium, and other high-value minerals, has grown into a multibillion-naira shadow industry.
According to data from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, the country loses an estimated $9bn annually to illegal mineral extraction and smuggling.
The Federal Government has linked several unlicensed mining operations to armed groups in the North-West and North-Central regions, where gold has become a source of illicit financing for bandits.
A 2023 NEITI audit also showed that over 80 per cent of mining activities in Nigeria were conducted informally, without licenses or environmental oversight.
In September 2024, the Ministry of Solid Minerals Development revoked over 900 dormant licences and announced plans for a national gold reserve policy. But enforcement remains difficult, with weak surveillance, limited manpower, and overlapping regulatory mandates.
According to Uzodimma, the expanded mandate aims to integrate the fight against illegal mining into the broader national resource protection framework previously used in the oil sector.
“We have done well,” he claimed, adding, “Among other things, we recommended that NNPC, working with security agencies and their consultants, should strengthen security in all the creeks and extend coverage to offshore regions. That will help in curtailing and supervising illegal entries and exits of vessels into our export terminals. This same spirit will now guide our solid minerals sector.”
The committee is expected to submit its first progress report on the expanded mandate at the next NEC meeting in November.
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