Opinion
The Renewed US Interest
Since independence till date Nigeria has been in deep comatose with little hope of regeneration. Its political, social and economic institutions have lapsed into a state of despair. Instead of accepting its shortcoming, our nation keeps boasting of its size, the vastness of its resources and, of course, its population.
The self-styled “African Giant” has suddenly realised that it is not making progress as a nation in spite of its God-given endownments. It now resorts to blaming the West for its woes and other factors such as colonialism which the West foisted on the country.
Recently, our resolve to practise constitutional government was tested when late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua took ill and was flown to Saudi Arabia for medical attention. Section 145 of the constitution which empowers the Vice-President to act in the absence of the President was not put into effect. The failure by the late President to effect that section of the constitution led to a controversy which forced the National Assembly to declare the “doctrine of necessity” that ushered in President Goodluck Jonathan as Acting President (as he then was).
Prior to the dream of Yar’Adua, the Western nations particularly the United States of America, USA, did not show much interest in the affairs of Nigeria because they perceived the late President as a product of a flawed electoral process. It was for this same reason the US President, Senator Barak Obama, boycotted Nigeria during his visit to some African countries which included Ghana. This did not come as a surprise as the US President began to make negative utterances about the way certain African countries were governed soon after his election.
Truly, Ghana has worked very hard to earn its current reputation. Both Ghana and Nigeria share the same antecedents. Apart from the fact that both countries participate in similar history of long military dictatorship, they were colonized by the same master. I have consistently failed to see the reason Ghana does well but Nigeria does not. And because the government and people of Ghana have shown a high level of probity in governance and the management of election, they now reap the dividends in economic growth. The Ghanaian case is a typical example of how good governance and a transparent electoral system could translate into economic growth.
The decision of the US not to have dealings with countries that do not practice real democracy does not foreclose on any other country to utilise the opportunity to be on the good books of the world’s largest democracy. And so those leaders who sow conflicts or even inflict economic pain on the citizens of their respective countries will be judged by their people at the appropriate time. The Nigerian government must know now that what will bring peace, stability and development to the country is when the people exercise confidence in their leaders and when votes count. Indeed, the case of Ghana has shown that democracy delivers basic services.
That is why I want the Nigerian government to take advantage of the renewed US interest in the affairs of the country,. That interest was demonstrated when Dr. Jonathan had a four-day visit to the US for the Nuclear Security summit which held in Washington. During the visit, the US government charged Jonathan to work towards the redemption of Nigeria’s image. The US also showed concern about human rights abuses, economic development, corruption, electoral fraud, constitutional law and the incessant conflicts in the country. The US government then promised to work with Nigeria in those areas and others to ensure stability.
Nigeria has come to a central stage in US. interest because of its critical position in Africa and the rest of the world. Though there are some Nigerians who rather than applaud the US move, term it an attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of the country. Those are the people that want to perpetuate the old order.
Our country has to heed the clarion call by the US to embrace sanity and not think that the world cannot do without her. If we think that we have oil and gas and so can afford to ignore the right way of doing things and become a laughing stock to the rest of the world, then we may realise that many countries are today discovering oil and gas. If we don’t harness our resources through good governance, we might be out of relevance in the next few years. The truth is that Nigeria can be much less relevant to the West.
The opportunity and responsibility to be great are here with us. We have to decide whether it happens or not.
Arnold Alalibo
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo
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