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Nigeria’s GDP Shrinks To 2.01% In Q1, 2019
Nigeria’s brittle economy slowed to 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (Q1, 2019), according to data released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The nation’s economy, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, fell from the 2.38 per cent growth rate of the fourth quarter of 2018.
The economy’s performance fell below the three per cent growth rate projected by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
However, when compared to the Q1 2018 performance, where real GDP growth rate stood at 1.89 per cent, the Q1 2019 growth represented an increase of 0.12 percentage points, the NBS said.
The sluggish GDP growth has prompted analysts, including the Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, to call for a review of Nigeria’s economic management strategy.
According to the statistical agency, quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth declined by -0.38 percentage points.
The GDP Report Q1 2019, which was released yesterday, said aggregated GDP in nominal terms dropped -9.75 per cent to N31.79 trillion, compared to N35.23 trillion in the preceding quarter. But the nominal value is higher than in Q1 2018 estimate of N28.43 trillion, representing a year-on-year nominal growth of 11.80 per cent.
But NBS added that the nominal GDP growth in Q1 2019 was higher than the rate recorded in Q1 2018 by 2.54 percentage points.
The GDP growth was largely aided by the non-oil sectors, which contributed 90.86 percent to total GDP. The oil sector contributed 9.14 percent to the growth in Q1.
The services sector contributed 54.60 percent to real GDP in the non-oil sector while agriculture contributed 21.91 percent and industries 23.49 per cent.
Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 11.60 per cent in Q1 2019.
However, real GDP growth in the sector decreased to -2.40 per cent (year-on-year) in Q1 2019, indicating a decrease by -16.43 percentage points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.
Growth in the sector decreased by -0.79 percentage points when compared to the -1.62 per cent recorded in Q4 2018.
Meanwhile, oil production increased by 0.05 million barrels per day (mbpd) to1.96 mbpd in Q1 2019 compared to the 1.91mbpd in the preceding quarter. But the data showed that oil production was lower than the 1.98mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018 by -0.02mbpd.
The NBS said the level of oil output during the quarter was the highest recorded over the past one year and the second highest since mid-2017.
A further breakdown of the sectoral contributions to growth, however, showed that the contribution of agriculture to real growth was less than the preceding quarter when it recorded 26.15 per cent.
Nevertheless, the sector grew by 3.17 per cent in Q1 compared to 2.46 per cent in Q4 2018.
The manufacturing sector growth also slowed to 0.81 per cent compared to 2.38 per cent in the preceding quarter.
Also, the construction sector grew at 3.18 per cent, (year-on-year) in Q1 from 2.05 per cent in the preceding quarter. It contributed 4.09 per cent to real GDP, up from 3.48 per cent in Q4 2018.
Growth in the trade sector slowed to 0.85 per cent from 1.02 per cent in the preceding quarter. Its share of GDP was 16.87 per cent in Q1 2019, down from 17.07 per cent in Q4 2018.
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