Business
Investors’ Confidence Returns In Developed Markets
Sentiment toward stocks rose around the world, reaching a record level in the US, as reports on manufacturing showed the global economy is recovering and investors bet that profits grew for the first time since 2007.
Investors forecast gains in each of the nine countries represented in the Bloomberg Professional Confidence Survey for the first time since the data began in 2007. The sentiment measure for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 35 per cent to 54.37.
That’s only the second time the reading exceeded 50, signaling participants anticipate a rally in the next six months. The responses from 4.101 Bloomberg users were gathered January 4-8 as the MSCI World Index added 2.6 per cent.
Rising factory output in the US China and Europe helped send the S & P 500 to six straight gains to begin the year.
Analysts estimate that fourth quarter earnings reports beginning this week will show S&P 500 profit rose 62 percent, according to data complied by Bloomberg.
The results will follow the biggest annual rally since 2003 for MSCI World Index of equities in 23 developed nations. “The market is clearly in an upside trend”, said Luis Benguerd, a trader at inter-brokers Espanola in Barcelona, Spain, who participated in the survey.
“As long as we keep getting these macro figures and companies do as good as analysts expect them to do, that’s enough to keep this trend going”
The MSCI World has rebounded 74 percent from a 13-year low in March after the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate at almost zero and the US government lent, spent or guaranteed as much as $9.66 trillion to end the recession and unlock credit markets.
US factory output expanded in December at the fastest pace in more than three years, according to a report from the Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for supply Management. Chinese manufacturing surged the most since April 2004 last month, data compiled by London-based H SBC Holdings Plc and Market Economics showed. Production increased for a third month in December, Markit said.
The three reports were released January 4. The Bloomberg Sentiment Indexes for the US, Japan and Spain rose above 50 and reached all-time highs. The U.K gauge topped 50 for the first time since October, while Switzerland climbed to a record.
Spain exceeded 50 for the first time, adding 17 percent to 51.41. Confidence in Switzerland climbed 3.6 per cent to 60.89 and U.K index surged 22 per cent to 55.61. The measures for Italy, France and Germany increased 14 per cent, 3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent to 62.61, 57.77 and 53.33 respectively.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European equities may advance 9.2 per cent through the end of 2010 as the economy grows strategists at New York based Citigroup Inc wrote in a January 4 report. Signs that the global economy is rebounding from its first recession since World War II have helped push prices on the MSCI World to 34.7 times profit from the past year at its 1.656 companies. That’s the most expensive valuation since 2002, making equities vulnerable should earnings fail to materialise.
Alcoa Inc., the biggest US aluminium producer, began earnings season on January 11 by missing the average analyst profit forecast. The S&P 500 lost 0.9 per cent following the New York based company’s report.
“Alcoa’s bottom-line number was not good and investors are selling because expectations were high”, said Mark Bronzo, a money manager in Irvington, New York, at security global investors, which oversees $21 billion. “The fear gets heightened”.
The MSCI World fell 0.4 per cent on Wednesday morning in New York on a decline in oil and concern the Federal Reserve is preparing markets for higher interest rates.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) yesterday said 33 banks have met new minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, raising a combined N4.65 trillion to strengthen the financial system.
The apex bank disclosed this in a statement marking the end of the exercise, which commenced in March 2024 and drew participation from domestic and foreign investors.
The statement was jointly signed by the Director of Banking Supervision, Olubukola Akinwunmi, and the Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali.
The statement said “Over the 24-month period, Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65tn in new capital, strengthening the resilience of the financial system and enhancing its capacity to support the economy.”
The regulator said local investors accounted for 72.55 per cent of the funds, while international investors contributed 27.45 per cent, reflecting continued confidence in the sector.
Commenting on the outcome, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said in the statement, “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”
It added that while 33 banks have complied with the new thresholds, a few others are still undergoing regulatory and legal processes.
The statement noted, “The CBN confirms that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme.
“A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.
“All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.”
The apex bank stressed that the exercise was executed without disrupting banking operations, ensuring uninterrupted access to services nationwide.
It further stated that key prudential indicators have improved, particularly capital adequacy ratios, which remain above global Basel benchmarks.
The minimum ratios were set at 10 per cent for regional and national banks and 15 per cent for banks with international licences.
The bank also said the recapitalisation coincided with a gradual exit from regulatory forbearance, a move it said improved asset quality, strengthened balance sheet transparency, and enhanced overall stability.
To preserve these gains, the CBN said it has reinforced its risk-based supervision framework, mandating periodic stress tests and adequate capital buffers for banks.
It added that supervisory and prudential guidelines would be reviewed regularly to strengthen governance, risk management, and resilience across the sector.
“The successful completion of the programme establishes a stronger and more resilient banking system, better positioned to support lending, mobilise savings, and withstand domestic and global shocks,” the statement said.
The Tide learnt that foreign capital inflows into Nigeria’s banking sector rose by 93.25 per cent year-on-year to $13.53bn in 2025, up from $7.00bn recorded in 2024, amid the ongoing recapitalisation drive by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics capital importation report showed that the banking sector remained the dominant destination for foreign capital, accounting for $13.53bn of the total $23.22bn recorded in 2025, representing 58.26 per cent of total inflows, up from 56.81 per cent in 2024.
The surge reflects heightened investor interest in Nigerian banks as they raised fresh capital to meet new regulatory thresholds introduced by the apex bank, with industry-wide recapitalisation activities driving large-scale inflows across all quarters of the year.
However, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) recently raised concerns over weak credit flows to small businesses despite recent banking sector reforms.
The CPPE, led by a renowned economist, Dr Muda Yusuf, acknowledged that the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise by the CBN has strengthened the financial system, but warned that the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful support for the real economy.
The facility will be disbursed through participating Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), which will in turn extend the loans to their customers, particularly SMEs, as they directly interface with businesses at the grassroots level.
The Executive Director of COMCIN, Mr. Micheal Ogbaa who represented the Chairman, Dr. Iredele Oyedele (FCA, FCCA), said the initiative is designed to strengthen micro-lending institutions and expand access to finance for grassroots entrepreneurs, particularly women and youths in the informal sector.
Ogbaa explained that COMCIN does not lend directly to individuals but works through its network of microfinance and cooperative institutions, which in turn provide loans to end users.
“We came together to advocate for the microfinance ecosystem. Commercial banks often exclude people at the grassroots, but our members are positioned to reach them. This facility will empower them to do more,” he said.
He noted that the loan scheme offers low interest rates and flexible repayment plans, making it more accessible to small business owners.
According to him, about 90 percent of beneficiaries are expected to be women, who play a key role in sustaining families and driving economic activities at the local level.
“Our focus is on traders, service providers, and players in the informal sector. These are the real movers of the economy. By supporting them, we are strengthening families and contributing to national development,” he added.
Ogbaa disclosed that eligible SMEs with proven integrity and business track records could access up to N5 million each through participating micro-lending institutions. The rollout has commenced in Lagos and will extend to Abuja, Enugu, and other regions, including the South-West, South-East, and North-East.
He said 12 micro-lending institutions have already benefited from the scheme, while 85 applications are currently being processed under the pilot phase.
“Our target is to reach at least 100,000 SMEs nationwide. We are building a platform that connects funding partners with credible micro-lending institutions, creating a reliable channel for financial inclusion,” Ogbaa said.
He added that COMCIN is also working to attract larger funding pools from development finance institutions and private investors, noting that successful implementation of the pilot phase would boost confidence and unlock more capital for SMEs.
“We have seen encouraging testimonies from early beneficiaries. As we demonstrate transparency and efficiency, more institutions will be willing to channel funds through us,” he said.
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