Business
Russian Oil Continues To Flow To India, China
It has been exactly six weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine, with no end in sight to one of humanity’s biggest existential crises in modern times. In response to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified war, the United States and the West have hit the rogue nation with a plethora of sanctions, with the latest announced just days ago mostly targeting Russia’s financial sector.
So far, Russia’s pivotal energy sector has largely been spared. With the exception of Lithuania and Poland as well as self-sanctioning by refiners and bankers, no country has yet to announce a ban on Russia’s energy products.
Also, Russian oil and gas exports to the EU remain largely unchanged since only the Baltic States have announced a 100% ban on Russian energy imports. Poland, a major thoroughfare for Russian energy supplies, has also been more proactive than most after it took steps to block Russian coal imports and announced steps to halt Russian oil imports by year-end.
Poland, home to the 1.3mb/d Druzhba pipeline that carries Russian crude to several points in Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic, directly consumes ~330kb/d of Russian crude and imports 9.4mt of Russian thermal coal in 2020, accounting for ~5% of Russian exports.
The EU currently gets about 40% of its natural gas from Russia, which powers everything from household heating to factory production, and makes up around 25% of the bloc’s total energy consumption.
But that could soon change.
The flow of “bloody money” to Russia must stop, Kyiv’s mayor has said as the West prepares new sanctions on Moscow after dead civilians were found lining the streets of a Ukrainian town seized from Russian invaders.
Since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine, turning their assault on the south and east, grim images from the town of Bucha near Kyiv, including a mass grave and bound bodies of people shot at close range, have prompted international outrage.
Experts are now saying that the atrocities against Ukrainian civilians revealed by the withdrawal of Russian forces from areas north and east of Kyiv have made it very likely that EU countries will impose sanctions on Russian oil in the coming months. In the United States, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has warned of “enormous economic repercussions” from the Ukraine war.
The million-dollar question right now is how disruptive a total ban on Russian energy commodities will be on Russia’s economy.
Unfortunately, a ban on Russian oil and gas by the U.S. and the EU might not be as damaging to Russia as the west hopes, with the presence of heavily discounted Urals proving too irresistible for some.
India’s Surging Imports From Russia
India has never been a big buyer of Russian crude despite needing to import 80% of its needs. In a typical year, India imports just 2-5% of its crude from Russia, roughly the same proportion as the United States did before it announced a 100% ban on Russian energy commodities. Indeed, India imported only 12 million barrels of Russian crude in 2021, with the majority of its oil coming from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Nigeria.
But reports have now emerged of a “significant uptick” in Russian oil deliveries bound for India.
Matt Smith, the lead oil analyst at Kpler, has told CNBC that since the beginning of March, five cargoes of Russian oil, or about 6 million barrels, have been loaded and are bound for India. In other words, India has imported half as much crude from Russia in one month as it did in an entire year.
And, it could be all about the money.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Urals crude from Russia is being offered at record discounts. Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting, has told CNBC that a couple of commodity trading firms, such as Glencore and Vitol, were offering discounts of $30 and $25 per barrel, respectively, two weeks ago for the Urals blend. Urals is the main blend exported by Russia.
The experts say simple economics is the reason White House pressure to curb purchases of crude oil from Russia have fallen on deaf ears in Delhi.
“Today, the Government of India’s motivations are economic, not political. India will always look for a deal in their oil import strategy. It’s hard not to take a 20% discount on crude when you import 80-85% of your oil, particularly on the heels of the pandemic and global growth slowdown,” Samir N. Kapadia, Head of Trade at Government Relations Consulting firm, Vogel Group, has told CNBC via email.
Still, it will not be lost on many readers that India has maintained a cozy relationship with Russia over the years, with Russia supplying the Asian nation with as much as 60% of its military and defense-related equipment. Russia has also been a key ally on crucial issues such as India’s dispute with China and Pakistan surrounding the territory of Kashmir.
China To The Rescue?
But India might not be the lone pariah helping finance Putin’s illegal war.
Given China’s experience with evading sanctions, you would expect it to be among the first countries lining up to lap up those cheap barrels of Urals. After all, it’s a badly kept secret that Beijing has been using all sorts of clandestine means aka ‘cloaking’ to import cheap Iranian oil ever since it was sanctioned in 2011. China is already Russia’s biggest oil customer, importing an average of 1.72 mb/d in 2021.
However, Reuters has reported that China’s crude imports from Russia in the first two months of the year actually declined 9.1% to 1.57 mb/d.
But this has got little to do with China suddenly acting sanctimonious or moral compunction. Rather, the notable decline has been caused by Beijing’s crackdown on smaller independent refiners aka the teapots.
In a dramatic reversal of fortunes, back in June, Beijing announced huge cutbacks in import quotas for the country’s private oil refiners. According to Reuters, China’s independent refiners were awarded a combined 35.24 million tons in crude oil import quotas in the second batch of quotas this year, a 35% reduction from 53.88 million tons for a similar tranche a year ago.
The big reduction came as part of agovernment crackdown on private Chinese refiners known as teapots, which have become increasingly dominant over the past five years. The move is intended to allow Beijing to more precisely regulate the flow of foreign oil as it doubles down on malpractices such as tax evasion, fuel smuggling, and violations of environmental and emissions rules by independent refiners.
China’s teapots have been steadily grabbing market share from entrenched state players such as China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation(NYSE:SNP), also known as Sinopec, andPetroChina Co. (NYSE:PTR) ever since Beijing partially liberalized its oil industry in 2015. Teapots currently control nearly 30% of China’s crude refining volumes, up from ~10% in 2013.
By: Alex Kimani
Business
Bayelsa To Spend N1.24trn As Diri Presents 2027 Appropriation Bill …Works, Education, Sports, Others Gulp Lion’s Share
Bayelsa State Governor, Senator Douye Diri has presented the 2027 Appropriation Bill of the State to State House of Assembly.
Christened the ‘’Budget of Assured Prosperity for Sustainable Growth and Development”, the appropriation bill was based on a projected revenue of N1,242, 688,970,520,22.
The Governor said the 2027 proposals were derived from broad stakeholder engagements involving traditional rulers, technical experts, the organised private sector and citizens across the state, noting that it was a historic budget being the first as the state was beginning its fourth decade and presented at a time sustained investments were visible in all the local government areas.
“Our fiscal priorities remain clear: roads and bridges that connect communities, better health and education services, reliable power and an environment in which businesses and families can thrive”, he said.
Presenting the estimates, governor Diri said N840.791 billion representing approximately 68 per cent was proposed for capital expenditure while recurrent expenditure was put at N401.897 billion representing approximately 32 per cent.
He observed that the proposed budget was approximately 22 per cent larger than that of the 2026 fiscal year, which was N1.016 trillion, just as he listed some strategic projects that would continue to receive priority attention in 2027, saying they were all at advanced stages of completion.
The projects according to the governor, include the Ekeremor–Agge Road Phase I, Nembe–Brass Road Phase I, Akaba–Ayakoro Road with spur to Otuegwe 1, Glory Drive Phase 3, Agbere-Elemebiri Road, the 30,000-seater stadium at Igbogene, and the nine-storey state secretariat complex.
The governor expressed the conviction that with work progressing on the three senatorial roads, all local government headquarters would be connected to the state capital and boost socio-economic activities across the state.
“With work progressing on all senatorial causeways, we are moving closer to an ambition our people have held since the creation of the state: to connect the capital to every local government headquarters and open up access to our coastal communities. This will boost fisheries, marine and blue economy enterprises, and tourism.
“These projects demonstrate that our beautiful terrain should not limit our ambition. With resolve, sound planning and prudent management, Bayelsa is building what many once thought were impossible”, he added.
Giving a breakdown of the sectoral allocations, Works and Infrastructure got the lion’s share of N422.84 billion followed by Education ¦ 126.97 billion and Sports ¦ 68.50 billion.
Also, Health was allotted ¦ 53.32 billion, Security N24 billion, Public Utilities N22.94 billion and Agriculture got N17.74 billion.
Diri charged the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning to enforce coordination, transparency and accountability and ensure effective implementation of the budget.
According to him, government would continue to improve its model schools, support accreditation of programmes in tertiary institutions, strengthen science and technical education and introduce digital learning tools in schools.
He added that the administration would pursue the upscaling of its 60 megawatts independent power plant to 100 megawatts and prioritise water provision in 2027.
He also remarked that the allocation to the sports sector would enable government accelerate work on the stadium project as the state prepares to host the National Sports Festival.
In his remarks, Deputy Speaker of the House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Michael Ogbere, commended Governor Diri for the successful implementation of the 2026 budget, and appreciated him for his visionary leadership.
Hon. Ogbere described Diri as a peace maker, bridge builder and a leader who has constructed roads and bridges across 80% of all communities in the state, expressing confidence that the projects outlined were achievable.
The Deputy Speaker assured the governor of the 7th Assembly’s support and speedy passage of the budget while the Majority Leader, Rt. Hon. Monday Bubou, moved a motion for the members to pass a vote of confidence on Governor Diri and the administration, which was unanimously endorsed by the lawmakers.
Ariwera Ibibo-Howells, Yenagoa
Business
NNPC Targets Two Million Bpd Productions In 2027
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has said that ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector have lifted national crude oil production by 600,000 barrels per day, from about 1.2 million barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day.
According to the company, the improvement has strengthened Nigeria’s position as a destination for international energy investment.
Group Chief Executive Officer ( GCEO) of NNPC Limited, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, made the remarks last week at an Energy Talk titled “Nigeria’s Reform Agenda: Competing for Energy Capital”, moderated by John Defterios, Chairman, MENA, APCO, at the 2026 Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Ojulari linked the production growth to the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, an improved investment climate, better investment decisions, and stronger collaboration between NNPC Limited and its partners.
He said the current output level is a milestone in NNPC Limited’s journey towards its 2 million barrels per day target by 2027.
The Company, he explained, is focused on maintaining infrastructure, protecting base production, increasing output from existing assets, and advancing new projects designed to lift production further.
“The figure of 1.8 million barrels per day is a stage in a journey towards our objective.
We are concentrating on the basics, which are maintaining our infrastructure, protecting base operations and executing the projects that will take production higher,” Ojulari stated.
On the domestic market, the GCEO said the removal of petrol subsidy has been accompanied by an expanded Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) programme.
He noted that over 400 CNG conversion centres have been established, while more than 1,000 trucks are transporting petroleum products
Nkpemenyie Mcdominic, Lagos
Business
SEREC Demands Independent Forensic Audit Of NIMASA CVFF Funds
The Sea Empowerment and Research Centre (SEREC) has call for an independent forensic audit of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), following conflicting claims over the management and currency status of the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).
The centre said the controversy surrounding the fund had reinforced its earlier concerns about transparency, accountability and the possible erosion of contributions through currency conversion and administrative decisions.
In a reaction titled, “Cocks Crow at Dawn — On the CVFF Audit Crisis,” forwarded by SEREC’s representative, Eugene Nweke, the organisation said the latest revelations had vindicated its earlier calls for a comprehensive examination of NIMASA’s accounts from 2004 to date.
SEREC said former NIMASA Director-General, Temisan Omatseye, had disclosed that dollar-denominated contributions were converted into naira and invested in fixed deposits during his tenure, while the incumbent Director-General, Dr Dayo Mobereola, maintained that the fund remained in dollars with the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The organisation said the conflicting accounts raised questions about the actual value, location and management of the fund, which was to provide financing support established for indigenous shipowners under the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act.
It argued that shipowners, as contributors to the fund, deserved documentary evidence showing how much had accrued, where the money was domiciled, the interest generated and the amount currently available for disbursement.
SEREC also warned that converting dollar contributions into naira exposed the fund to significant foreign exchange losses, given the depreciation of the local currency over the years.
According to the organisation, if the contributions were converted into naira and retained in that currency, the fund could have suffered a substantial erosion in its real value, undermining its original objective of strengthening indigenous shipping capacity.
It maintained that the CVFF was contributors’ money and should not be treated as government largesse, stressing that shipowners had a legitimate right to demand accountability.
The centre further criticised maritime industry stakeholders, particularly shipowners’ associations, for allegedly prioritising access to the fund over sustained demands for transparency in its management.
SEREC insisted that no disbursement should take place without a comprehensive forensic audit to establish the fund’s financial history and current position.
It said the audit should cover all contributions, currency conversions, investments, accrued interest and administrative transactions relating to the fund from 2004 to date.
The organisation said the findings would provide the necessary clarity on the financial position of the CVFF and help restore confidence among indigenous shipowners seeking access to the facility.
Nkpemenyie Mcdominic, Lagos
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