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FG’s 2019 Budget: Fears Heighten As OPEC Cuts Quota
Even before the combatant National Assembly (NASS) debates and passes the budget next year, the nation’s proposed estimates of income and expenditure for next year is enmeshed in fresh fears of misalignment following a cut in Nigeria’s oil production quota by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 3.04 percent to 1.685 million barrels per day for the first half of 2019.
The development is considered as part of efforts to reduce oversupply in the global crude oil market by the Organisation.
The production cut, which is to be implemented from 2019, has cast a shadow over the 2.3mbpd crude oil production assumption on which the 2019 budget is based. Nigeria expects 52.9 percent of its N8.83 trillion proposed budget to be funded by oil revenues.
Also the retention of $60 benchmark price is considered as over ambitious and unrealistic considering further sliding of the oil price at the international market, which is currently below the budget price.
President Muhammadu Buhari presented an N8.83 trillion ($28.80 billion) budget for 2019 last Wednesday, laying out plans to drive growth to a raucous parliament that highlighted divisions two months before the election.
The spending plan for Africa’s top oil producer assumes crude production of 2.3 million barrels a day, an oil price of $60 per barrel and an exchange rate of N305 to dollar.
Another disturbing signal is the Excess Crude Account (ECA), the only buffer for the country against oil revenue volatility, which fell seventy-six percent to just above $600 million in three weeks.
The Federal Government was said to have withdrawn $1.6 billion in three months, between November 25 and December 19, 2018, thereby shrinking ECA to $631 million.
Some analysts say at the weekend that these may be signs of taste of what to expect next year, even as Nigerians are experiencing low purchasing power in the midst of rising cost of food items.
OPEC and 10 non-OPEC countries agreed earlier this month to cut oil production by 1.2 million bpd effective from January for an initial period of six months to shore up what many expect to be weakening market fundamentals ahead.
Nigeria, which was exempted from the previous cuts since January 2017,was asked to join the deal during the OPEC meeting on December 7 in Vienna.
With a reference level of 1.738 million bpd, Nigeria’s oil production is to be cut by 53,000 barrels to arrive at the new quota of 1.685 million bpd, according to a breakdown of member quotas under OPEC’s supply accord released by S&P Global Platts last week.
Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria’s junior petroleum minister, said on December 7 that it was very difficult for Nigeria to reduce its crude oil production.
Kachikwu, who spoke on ‘Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe’ ahead of the OPEC meeting in Vienna, stated that there was a need for an extension of production cuts to stabilise the global oil market.
Asked if Nigeria would be able to reduce production, he said, “It is very difficult to do that but where we are now, everybody must be seen to contribute. Obviously, the smaller it is, the more amenable we are to participate; the larger it is, the more we will struggle to participate.
“We have got exemption three times understandably. This time round, I think there is a decision that everybody should be seen to chip in.”
Friday Ameh, Lagos based energy analyst told our correspondent at the weekend that government will not be able to achieve the desired objective with the $60 per barrel benchmark.
“I consider the assumption as over ambitious and unrealistic since the sliding of the price is becoming uncontrollable,” Ameh said.
Muda Yusuf, director general of Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, LCCI had last week described the budget as too small to create any meaningful impact compared with the size of the economy.
Yusuf, who spoke on Channels at 10 on Wednesday, said the budget is about five percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, (GDP), adding that the expected revenue is too small for investment in infrastructure.
Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive of Financial Derivatives said that “At $60, the benchmark price could be ambitious.”
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Soyinka Demands Accountability Over Extra-Judicial Killings
Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka, has called on Nigerians to reject silence in the face of extrajudicial killings and other abuses of human rights.
Soyinka stressed that accountability and civic courage remain essential to rebuilding public confidence in the nation’s institutions.
He made the call during the 28th Wole Soyinka Lecture held in Port Harcourt, last Friday as part of activities marking his 92nd birthday.
The lecture, themed “Reclaiming the Nigerian State through Accountability, Justice and Civic Courage,” drew participants from different sectors of society.
The renowned playwright and human rights advocate said the country’s greatest tragedy was not only the unlawful killings carried out by state and non-state actors, but also the silence that often follows such incidents, allowing perpetrators to evade justice.
According to him, indifference by citizens to abuses of power and violations of fundamental human rights has contributed to the persistence of extrajudicial killings and other forms of injustice across the country.
Soyinka said he dedicated this year’s lecture to victims of unlawful killings, noting that the event was intended to honour individuals who had lost their lives as a result of failures within the justice system and society’s inability to protect the sanctity of human life.
He stressed that the lecture was dedicated to what he described as the basic unit of every society – the human being, and urged Nigerians to place greater value on human dignity irrespective of ethnicity, religion or social status.
The Nobel Laureate recalled several incidents of violence, including the fatal shooting and killing of a young man in Ugheli in Delta State by a police officer, and the mob killing of Deborah Yakubu in Sokoto State sometime ago, lamenting that many of those responsible are yet to face justice.
He expressed concern that some perpetrators of violent crimes had openly admitted their actions without fear of prosecution, describing such situations as evidence of serious failures within the nation’s justice system.
Soyinka maintained that when justice is delayed or denied, public confidence in state institutions continues to erode, thereby encouraging further violations of human rights.
Responding to critics who accuse him of promoting religious or ethnic divisions whenever he spoke on such issues, Soyinka dismissed the allegations and pointed out that his advocacy has always centred on the protection of human life and the rule of law.
He urged Nigerians to remain vigilant and continue demanding justice in cases of alleged extrajudicial killings, including the recent shooting of a young man by a police officer, stressing that every life deserves equal protection under the law.
The literary icon also recalled an earlier pledge by a past incoming president to make public the files relating to unresolved assassinations and extrajudicial killings, questioning the status of the promised investigations.
He challenged citizens to continue asking questions about unresolved cases, insisting that justice, accountability and respect for human dignity are indispensable to building a peaceful, democratic and inclusive Nigerian society.
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FAAN Backtracks, Says No Fire Incident At Lagos Airport’s Terminal 2
The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) has clarified that there was no fire at Terminal 2 of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos, contrary to its earlier advisory.
Earlier yesterday, FAAN had announced that a fire incident had occurred at Terminal 2 of the nation’s busiest airport, and assured that its Aerodrome Rescue and Firefighting Service had been deployed to contain the situation.
There were also reports that activities were briefly disrupted at the airport yesterday after smoke was seen inside parts of the terminal.
Videos circulating online showed passengers kept standing outside the terminal while firefighters responded to the incident.
However, in an update issued less than two hours later by the Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection, Henry Agbebire, and posted on FAAN’s official X handle, the authority said preliminary findings showed that the smoke seen at the terminal was caused by the discharge of the facility’s FM-200 fire suppression system.
“Further to our earlier advisory regarding the incident at Terminal 2 of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos, the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) wishes to provide the following update,” the statement read.
“Preliminary findings indicate that there was no fire at the terminal. The smoke observed within the affected area resulted from the discharge of the terminal’s FM-200 fire suppression system. The reason for the activation of the fire suppression system is currently being investigated,” FAAN stated.
The authority said normal operations had resumed at the terminal while investigations were ongoing to determine the cause of the incident.
“Normal operations have since resumed at the terminal, while detailed investigations are ongoing to determine the exact cause of the incident,” the statement added.
The authority thanked passengers, airlines, airport users and other stakeholders for their understanding and cooperation.
FAAN appreciated the understanding and cooperation of passengers, airlines, airport users and all stakeholders, and reiterated its commitment to the safety and security of all airport operations.
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