News
FG’s 2019 Budget: Fears Heighten As OPEC Cuts Quota
Even before the combatant National Assembly (NASS) debates and passes the budget next year, the nation’s proposed estimates of income and expenditure for next year is enmeshed in fresh fears of misalignment following a cut in Nigeria’s oil production quota by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 3.04 percent to 1.685 million barrels per day for the first half of 2019.
The development is considered as part of efforts to reduce oversupply in the global crude oil market by the Organisation.
The production cut, which is to be implemented from 2019, has cast a shadow over the 2.3mbpd crude oil production assumption on which the 2019 budget is based. Nigeria expects 52.9 percent of its N8.83 trillion proposed budget to be funded by oil revenues.
Also the retention of $60 benchmark price is considered as over ambitious and unrealistic considering further sliding of the oil price at the international market, which is currently below the budget price.
President Muhammadu Buhari presented an N8.83 trillion ($28.80 billion) budget for 2019 last Wednesday, laying out plans to drive growth to a raucous parliament that highlighted divisions two months before the election.
The spending plan for Africa’s top oil producer assumes crude production of 2.3 million barrels a day, an oil price of $60 per barrel and an exchange rate of N305 to dollar.
Another disturbing signal is the Excess Crude Account (ECA), the only buffer for the country against oil revenue volatility, which fell seventy-six percent to just above $600 million in three weeks.
The Federal Government was said to have withdrawn $1.6 billion in three months, between November 25 and December 19, 2018, thereby shrinking ECA to $631 million.
Some analysts say at the weekend that these may be signs of taste of what to expect next year, even as Nigerians are experiencing low purchasing power in the midst of rising cost of food items.
OPEC and 10 non-OPEC countries agreed earlier this month to cut oil production by 1.2 million bpd effective from January for an initial period of six months to shore up what many expect to be weakening market fundamentals ahead.
Nigeria, which was exempted from the previous cuts since January 2017,was asked to join the deal during the OPEC meeting on December 7 in Vienna.
With a reference level of 1.738 million bpd, Nigeria’s oil production is to be cut by 53,000 barrels to arrive at the new quota of 1.685 million bpd, according to a breakdown of member quotas under OPEC’s supply accord released by S&P Global Platts last week.
Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria’s junior petroleum minister, said on December 7 that it was very difficult for Nigeria to reduce its crude oil production.
Kachikwu, who spoke on ‘Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe’ ahead of the OPEC meeting in Vienna, stated that there was a need for an extension of production cuts to stabilise the global oil market.
Asked if Nigeria would be able to reduce production, he said, “It is very difficult to do that but where we are now, everybody must be seen to contribute. Obviously, the smaller it is, the more amenable we are to participate; the larger it is, the more we will struggle to participate.
“We have got exemption three times understandably. This time round, I think there is a decision that everybody should be seen to chip in.”
Friday Ameh, Lagos based energy analyst told our correspondent at the weekend that government will not be able to achieve the desired objective with the $60 per barrel benchmark.
“I consider the assumption as over ambitious and unrealistic since the sliding of the price is becoming uncontrollable,” Ameh said.
Muda Yusuf, director general of Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, LCCI had last week described the budget as too small to create any meaningful impact compared with the size of the economy.
Yusuf, who spoke on Channels at 10 on Wednesday, said the budget is about five percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, (GDP), adding that the expected revenue is too small for investment in infrastructure.
Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive of Financial Derivatives said that “At $60, the benchmark price could be ambitious.”
The Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lt.-Gen. Waidi Shaibu, has tasked troops of Operation SAVANNAH SHIELD to dominate the battlespace and intensify offensive operations against kidnappers, bandits and other criminal elements in the North Central region.
Shaibu gave the directive yesterday during his maiden operational visit to the Headquarters, Joint Task Force North Central (JTF-NC), at Sobi Barracks, Ilorin.
This is contained in a statement by the Acting Director, Army Public Relations, Col. Appolonia Anele, in Abuja, yesterday.
Shaibu said the Nigerian Army would remain resolute in its constitutional responsibility of safeguarding lives and property, stressing that troops must sustain pressure to decisively deny criminal elements freedom of action.
He assured personnel of continued deployment of combat enablers and operational resources to enhance clearance operations and dismantle criminal hideouts across Kwara and Niger states.
The COAS reaffirmed his commitment to troop welfare, noting that improved welfare remained critical to sustaining morale, operational effectiveness and combat readiness.
He urged the troops to remain disciplined, professional and loyal to the Constitution and the democratically elected government.
Earlier, the Theatre Commander, JTF-NC Operation SAVANNAH SHIELD, Maj.-Gen. Yakubu Yahaya, commended the COAS for his strategic leadership and support.
Yahaya assured that troops would remain committed and steadfast in restoring peace and stability in the region.
The Nigerian Navy says it is expanding training and infrastructure to address emerging security threats and strengthen operational efficiency across formations and units nationwide.
The Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Adm. Idi Abbas, spoke during the inauguration of projects at the Nigerian Navy Basic Training School (NNBTS) in Onne, Rivers as part of activities marking the Nigerian Navy’s 70th anniversary.
Abbas, represented by the Flag Officer Commanding, Naval Training Command (NAVTRAC), Rear Adm. Ebiobowei Zipele, said the projects reflected significant progress made by the navy since its establishment in 1956 from the British Royal Navy.
“Training and infrastructure have improved significantly to meet contemporary security challenges and fulfil the navy’s constitutional responsibilities.”
According to him, the anniversary provides the navy an opportunity to reflect on its achievements and contributions over the past seven decades.
Projects inaugurated included a remodelled female trainees’ hostel accommodating more than 500 occupants and an expanded golf course upgraded from one to nine holes.
Others were the NNBTS fuel dump, Chief Boatswain’s Mate House, renovated pharmacy department and a new theatre block at the Naval Medical Centre, Onne.
Abbas described the new theatre as a major milestone for the navy’s medical services.
“Previously, injured personnel requiring surgeries were referred outside the facility.
“With this theatre, surgeries can now be conducted within the base.’’
He added that a 30KVA inverter had also been installed to guarantee uninterrupted electricity supply at the training school.
The naval chief assured officers, ratings and trainees that the navy leadership remained committed to their welfare and wellbeing.
“These infrastructure upgrades show the commitment of the Chief of Naval Staff to addressing operational and welfare challenges promptly,” he said.
In addition, NAVTRAC distributed educational materials to pupils of Community Primary Schools One and Two, Ogale, in Ebubu-Eleme area of Rivers.
Items distributed included exercise books, school bags and other writing materials as part of the navy’s civil-military engagement initiative.
Zipele said the outreach was designed to strengthen relations between the navy and host communities while supporting children’s education.
“Education remains critical to national growth and youth empowerment. Some of these pupils may eventually serve in the Nigerian Navy,” he said.
He noted that the initiative demonstrated the navy’s commitment to educational development, peace, security and sustainable community relations.
Zipele urged the pupils to remain disciplined, focused and committed to their studies while embracing patriotism, integrity and hard work.
He thanked the Ebubu community for its continued support for the naval training command headquarters and the navy.
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