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2015 Presidency: The Odds

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As the February 14
Presidential election draws nearer by the day, and parties put finishing touches to their strategies to either retain or gain power, permutations as to which party waxes more or gains more ground are rife. As events unfold, there is little doubt that the race will be between the ruling Peoples’ Democratic  Party (PDP) and the leading opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC).
Following the emergence of incumbent president, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and  former Head-of-State, General Mohammadu Buhar (GMB), as the candidates of the PDP and APC respectively, the battle for Nigeria’s presidency has begun in earnest.
As expected, both presidential candidates have as much chances of emerging victorious as their followers chose to portray or make keen observers believe. One certainty, however, is that at the end of the day, only one aspirant will emerge. So, what are the odds  against, or in favour of the two presidential gladiators.?
For GEJ, there is no doubt that the catch phrase, “A breath of fresh air” that was the crux of his pre-2011 campaign that saw him coast to victory in the 2011 election seem to have fizzled out. So have all the goodwills and promises of a better Nigeria.
Pundits have expressed the belief that the disillusionment trailing the GEJ presidency garnered so much momentum because it basically originated from what is largely seen as within the inner chambers of the PDP, the very heart of the party caucus.
Key areas in which GEJ has been identified to have given a lackluster attention and hence deemed to have failed could be summerised into corruption and insecurity, and a major advocate in this wise is former president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
Being a key figure in PDP, whatever the former president says cannot be dismissed as mere frivolity. Comparatively, there is the belief that no matter what can be said about former President Obasanjo, he at least made some efforts against corrupt officials when he was in charge, even if such efforts were often viewed as sectional and tokenistic.
In his recent autobiography titled “My Watch”, Obasanjo said of corruption in GEJ’s first tenure; “under Jonathan we seem to have gone from frying pan to fire. If in the past corruption was in the corridors of power, it would seem now to be in the sitting room, dinning room and bedroom of power”.
The former president further drove his point when he alleged that incremenating corruption-related documents against a former governor was ordered to be removed from a file because the culprit was close to GEJ.
As a result of his perceived inability to address issues of corruption, therefore, many Nigerians, as amplified by the opposition, do not see GEJ as ready to fight corruption, which no doubt, has over the years proven to be the bane of Nigeria’s woes, both within and outside the shores of Nigeria.
The same reason is given for GEJ’s inability to secure lives and properties in his domain, as exemplified by the increasing and more deadly activities of the terrorist sect, Boko Haram, which had sent thousands to their early grave, and has held over 200 Chibok secondary school girls hostage since April 15, 2014.
In a summarizing manner, the founder of Adoration Ministry, Enugu Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, during his end-of-year mass on the eve of 2015, said GEJ had surrounded himself with very corrupt officials. As a result, the President, he said, has turned a blind eye to their corrupt activities while millions of Nigerians wallow in abject poverty and endless insecurity.
According to Mbaka, “Jonathan has ruled for six years. We need a change. NEPA (electricity) is not working because of corruption. The privatization of public companies has not yielded any fruit because of corruption.
“Jonathan surrounded himself with very corrupt officers who advise him. Nigerians are sick and tired of wasting innocent lives without government doing enough to stop the destruction.
“Up till now, nobody knows the whereabouts of the innocent Chibok girls kidnapped by Boko Haram and we say we have a government that cannot guarantee the welfare, safety and security of the citizens.
“Nigerians are calling for change. We need change. We don’t want to move from bad luck to bad luck. Nigerians want to move from bad luck to good luck”, he said.
While acknowledging the stand by the opposition in a piece titled “Can Jonathan survive this blitzkriegs?”  in This Day, Simon Kolawole identified four categories of GEJ’s critics: Opposition figures and other political opponents; those who lost out in the political game; those northerners who are still bitter that Jonathan “hijacked” power after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010; and those who have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan as they are sincerely critical of certain aspects of his stewardship.
Kolawole had no qualms with opposition figures and other political opponents because they must do their bidding.
“There is no way APC would come out and praise Jonathan; that is political suicide. They want power. They want his job. Theirs is to say Jonathan or PDP has not done well and that if Nigerians give them a chance, they would do much better.
“This is a universal characteristic of opposition politics. You can argue that they do not always work with facts, but what is politicking? PDP would do the same if APC was in power”, he said.
For those who lost out in the political game, the writer observed that many politicians, who supported GEJ in 2010 and 2011, feel abandoned, “they feel like a deflated orange: squeezed, sucked and dumped. They feel Jonathan treated them to a one-night stand, whereas they wanted an affair.
“Some wanted appointments; others simply desired respect and recognition. But they are bitter that Jonathan jilted them after getting what he wanted. In no time, they became his sworn enemies”, he said.
The northerners who are embittered that GEJ hijacked their right after the death of President Yar’Adua feel so because they say when they conceded power to the South in 1999, they did it with the understanding that Obasanjo would do only one term. But he did the maximum two terms.
Consequently, PDP, as the ruling party, agreed to north/south power rotation every eight years. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died prematurely.
“Jonathan took over and refused to let so. To some northerners, there is nothing Jonathan can do to make them happy. Even if he turns Nigeria to Dubai, their message is clear; Thank you and just get out of here”, he said.
The last category, which have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan are merely genuinely bothered at his handling of critical issues such as corruption and Boko Haram.
“In truth, Jonathan lost a lot of sympathizers  with the Chibok School girls’ saga, which turned into the  ‘Na only you waka come’ tragicomedy in the corridors of power”, Kolawole concluded.
As a word of advise, and in seeming appreciation of the political scenario, Kolawole noted: “It is not in the best interest of President Jonathan to lump all his critics together. As a leader, he has to sit down, analyse his critics and their criticisms, and work out his actions and reactions appropriately.
“He sure has millions of critics, like any other leader. People criticize with different motives. People have different agenda even when they are saying the same thing. Unfortunately, you will miss the massage when you lump everyone together and respond to every critic and criticism with cynicism and antagonism”.
As is usual with incumbency and opposition in politics, the weakness of the ruling government is what opposition latches upon to score its points, and the APC, seem to be doing a good job of it.
Against an allegedly “weak” GEJ,  the APC,  which is the leading opposition party, has fielded a perceived “strong” candidate in GMB, based on his track record. One key factor that constitutes a plus to GMB is his brief tenure as Military Head of State from the 1st of January 2004 to August 2005.
Alongside his second in command, late Major-General Tunde Idiagbon, GMB launched the popular War Against Indiscipline (WAI), through which they attempted to set a new road-map for the country’s politics.
They introduced strict economic and political policies that have been widely described as “Buharism”. It saw him refuse to adopt the IMF conditionality to devalue the naira. While his critics blamed him then for the resultant job losses, closure of some businesses, and decline in living standards, his admirers commended him for adopting unique economic measures that enabled his government to reduce inflation, curb import of needless goods and curtail crude oil theft.
Given his history as a leader with a strong character, GMB is also described as incorruptible and hence seem as the messiah that Nigeria needs to combat the ailing corruption-infested Nigerian economy.
Ironically, GMB’s critics also consider his strong personality as a minus, saying that he would not be a listening president like GEJ. But his followers have expressed strong feelings that the former Army General’s popularity is increasing by the day, and before February 14 where the pendulum for the presidency will swing to will be too glaring not to see in favour of the APC  candidate.
Moreso, as is popularly said,There is little doubt that Nigerians want to change, one that would loosen the stranglehold of corruption in the nation’s polity. What is, however, in contention is who represents that change so yearned for. Is it a repented GEJ, or a brand new GMB?

 

Soibi Max-Alalibo

Prof. Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman

Prof. Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman

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 2027: Be Politically Neutral, Fubara Tasks Traditional Rulers

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Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, has charged traditional rulers in the State to maintain neutrality, ensure fairness and uphold peace in their domains as the country prepares for the 2027 general elections.

Fubara gave the charge on Wednesday while declaring open the 126th,  127th and 128th Combined Quarterly Meeting of the Rivers State Traditional Rulers Council, in Port Harcourt.

The governor said the primary function of traditional rulers is to administer justice and ensure fairness, saying their conduct must not lead to division and unmanageable crises.

“Let me therefore, request, if that is the right word to use, that please, as we are entering into this political season actively, everyone should ensure that your conduct promoted  peace in your place. Your actions should not be what would lead to the division and multiple crisis that we cannot manage as a government.

“I  think with that, we can all live as one and we can also continue to make this progress that we are trying with all our mind, our body and our soul, to ensure that we deliver  to our dear State,” he said.

Fubara urged  the royal fathers to abide by the oath and constitution they swore to before ascending their respective stools,  in the interest of stability and progress of the State.

He also enjoined them  to set aside individual sentiments and place the interest of Rivers State above personal considerations, noting that this principle has guided his own day-to-day governance of the State.

“I want to enjoin everyone to keep aside issues of individual sentiments and ensure that the interest of our state supersedes whatever thing that we have in our mind. This is not just what I’m saying here, it is what I’ve also practiced and displayed in my day-to-day life in the governance of our dear State,” he said.

On the appeal for improved welfare  for traditional rulers, the governor clarified that the delay in actualising some of the requests they made  in the past was not from the government but from the inability of the Council to put its house in order.

Fubara explained that the issue of stipends paid to the traditional rulers by the local government councils,  was a statutory benefit provided for in the constitution and not what a state governor can change by mere verbal   pronouncements.

He assured that he remains a man of his word and will fulfill his promises  to the traditional rulers before leaving office, next year.

He reaffirmed his respect for the traditional institution as custodians of culture and the closest link to the people, thanking them for their prayers and support.

The governor urged the royal fathers to ensure that the combined quarterly meeting  featured fruitful deliberations that will strengthen peace and development in the State.

Earlier, the Chairman of the Rivers State Council of Traditional Rulers and Paramount Ruler of Apara Kingdom, His Royal Majesty, Eze Chike Amadi Worlu Wodo,  expressed  profound gratitude to the State Government for its efforts in  maintaining a cordial relationship with the traditional institution.

Wodo highlighted the importance of traditional rulers in conflict resolution, noting that their closeness to the people places them in a strategic position to mediate in  disputes involving chieftaincy matters, family disputes and land ownership in their respective communities.

The royal father drew the attention of the State Government to some  challenges affecting the performance of the traditional institution, particularly the lack of official utility vehicles and logistical support needed to discharge its responsibilities effectively.

He also appealed for improved monthly stipends and better welfare provisions to reflect prevailing economic realities.

 

 

 

 

 

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  FG Must Address Nigerians’ Concerns On Reforms -Shettima …Warns Against Misuse of AI, Social Media

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Vice President Kashim Shettima has urged the Federal Government to pay greater attention to Nigerians’ concerns about ongoing economic reforms, insisting that public confidence must be built through transparent communication, credible evidence of progress and responsiveness to citizens’ experiences.

Shettima made the call yesterday at The Duke’s Masterclass 2026, held at Transcorp Hilton, Abuja, where he was represented by his Special Adviser on Economic Affairs, Dr Tope Fasua.

The Vice President said the success of the administration’s economic policies would depend not only on their implementation but also on the government’s ability to demonstrate tangible results and address the challenges confronting citizens.

“Government must continue to communicate, however, its policies clearly, demonstrate progress with credible evidence, and listen attentively to the experiences of citizens,” he said.

Shettima defended the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu, including petrol subsidy removal, foreign exchange market liberalisation, fiscal restructuring and revenue mobilisation, describing them as measures intended to correct longstanding economic distortions and strengthen Nigeria’s productive capacity.

He explained that the policies were designed to attract investment, improve business confidence, enhance the deployment of public resources and establish conditions for sustainable economic growth.

However, he maintained that announcing policies was insufficient without building public understanding and confidence in their implementation.

The Vice President particularly challenged Nigeria’s elite, professionals and middle class to acknowledge the difficulties facing ordinary citizens while explaining the objectives of the reforms.

“Your role is not to defend every government action uncritically, nor to dismiss the concerns of citizens. It is to help create a more informed and constructive national conversation,” he stated.

He urged professionals engaging traders to recognise the pressures confronting businesses and advised those interacting with young graduates to acknowledge employment challenges while encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation.

According to him, constructive criticism and informed public participation are essential to effective governance and the sustainability of economic policies.

“Constructive scrutiny strengthens governance. Informed public participation strengthens democracy,” Shettima said.

He further stressed that leadership required the flexibility to adjust policy implementation in response to evidence and changing economic circumstances without abandoning established objectives.

Turning to the challenges of artificial intelligence and social media, the Vice President warned that technological advances were increasing the speed and sophistication of misinformation, posing risks to public confidence and institutional reputations.

“A photograph can be manipulated, a voice can be cloned, and a video can be fabricated just with a simple prompt on social media to make an individual appear to have said or done something that never happened,” he warned.

Shettima urged public institutions to strengthen information verification, correct false claims transparently and communicate through trusted channels, adding that speed should never take precedence over accuracy.

He also called for improved digital literacy and responsible use of artificial intelligence.

On economic opportunities, Shettima identified banking, financial technology, oil and gas, agriculture, real estate, construction, commodity exports and the creative industry as sectors capable of supporting investment and employment.

He nevertheless acknowledged the need to address unreliable electricity, inefficient transportation, insecurity, limited access to finance and weaknesses in education and public institutions.

He called for stronger domestic production, export expansion and support for small businesses, while urging that economic opportunities be extended to women, young people and rural communities.

In his opening address, the Chairman of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Bimbo Ashiru, warned that poor leadership decisions and inadequate crisis preparedness could destroy institutional credibility.

“Reputation cannot be manufactured at the point of crisis. It is built over time through our decisions, our conduct, our values and the consistency between what we say and what we do,” he said.

Ashiru noted that geopolitical tensions, technological changes and economic disruptions were making leadership increasingly difficult, requiring organisations to strengthen accountability, transparency and crisis management.

He disclosed plans to extend the masterclass to London in March 2027.

Also speaking, former Commonwealth Secretary-General, Emeka Anyaoku, recounted his involvement in international conflict resolution, particularly negotiations surrounding South Africa’s transition from apartheid and political tensions in Bangladesh.

He stressed that successful mediation required a thorough understanding of the issues dividing opposing parties, the interests of their leaders and the appropriate timing of public communication.

“Because if you communicate the progress prematurely, you might sabotage the whole process,” Anyaoku said.

The Chairman of AXA Mansard and Group Managing Director of Sahara Power Group, Kola Adesina, criticised Nigeria’s persistent electricity challenges, arguing that public institutions and businesses should be judged by service delivery rather than explanations for poor performance.

“Rather than giving people megawatts of electricity, we are giving them excuses,” he said.

Adesina also condemned corruption, inflated public contracts and failures of accountability, warning that such practices weakened infrastructure, damaged public trust and endangered lives.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Duke of Shomolu Foundation, Joseph Edgar, explained that the masterclass was designed to equip organisations and individuals with practical strategies for anticipating crises, managing their consequences and protecting institutional reputations.

He said the initiative complemented the foundation’s use of theatre to promote social cohesion and strengthen public engagement.

 

 

 

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My Administration’ll End Political Acrimony In Rivers – Chinda

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Governorship candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC) in Rivers State in the forthcoming 2027 election, Hon. Kingsley Chinda, has vowed to run an all inclusive administration that would ensure political harmony in the state, if elected into power.
Hon. Chinda, who is also the preferred governorship candidate of the Rainbow Coalition, said this shortly after he was unveiled along side other candidates of the political arrangement at a grand rally in Port Harcourt.
He said the coalition was committed to ending political divisions and promoting unity among the various political parties in the state.
Hon. Chinda also promised to make Rivers State experience peace, progress and development during his tenure as governor of the state.
“We are no longer divided on party lines.We are no longer playing the politics of the winner takes it all’’, he said.
Hon. Chinda, who spoke on behalf of the other candidates of the Rainbow Coalition, said the coalition’s vision extends beyond electoral victory, adding that its proposed government would accommodate people, irrespective of political affiliations, gender and religious belief.
“We are going to run a government for the people, with the best interests of Rivers people first,” he said.
Hon. Chinda also commended the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Chief Nyesom Wike, for bringing political stakeholders together under the umbrella of the Rainbow Coalition, while lauding Governor Siminalayi Fubara for presenting flags to the candidates.
He expressed optimism that the alliance would promote peaceful elections, a smooth transition of power and development projects capable of improving the lives of Rivers residents.
While presenting flags to chosen candidates of the Rainbow Coalition, Governor Fubara called on members of the Coalition and his supporters to put past disagreements behind them and work together under a common leadership ahead of the 2027 general elections.
He acknowledged Chief Wike’s role in his political journey and described the Minister of the FCT as the leader of the Rainbow Coalition.
Governor Fubara said the political groups had come together as one family and should no longer maintain separate camps.
He also pledged to support the coalition’s candidates and President Tinubu’s re-election bid, expressing optimism that cooperation among political stakeholders would strengthen the alliance.
Also speaking, Chief Wike urged members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other political parties across the country to support President Tinubu’s re-election.
He called on politicians to set aside party differences and work together towards the coalition’s political objectives.
Chief Wike said the Rainbow Coalition represents a common political platform for stakeholders from different parties who had agreed to support the President and candidates seeking elective offices in Rivers State.
He also urged PDP members in Rivers, Kwara, Ogun and other states to support President Tinubu, while calling for support for the coalition’s candidates contesting the governorship, National Assembly and Rivers State House of Assembly elections.
The former Rivers State governor also addressed divisions within the PDP, rejecting attempts to portray him as merely a factional leader of the party.
He further criticised some opposition figures over their political ambitions and records in public office, particularly former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.
Meanwhile, former Senator Magnus Abe has also called on Mr Amaechi to withdraw from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) vice-presidential arrangement with Alhaji Abubakar and support President Tinubu.
Senator Abe argued that the presidency should remain in Southern Nigeria, insisting that political leaders should respect the principle of power rotation between the North and South.
He recalled the controversy surrounding former President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election bid, arguing that Mr Amaechi had previously opposed Dr Jonathan’s ambition on the grounds of power rotation.
“Today, the same man who led us to go against our son and our brother is now trying to lead us to go and support somebody from the North when it is the turn of the South.
“On behalf of all of us here gathered in Rivers State, we want to call on Amaechi to immediately respect his own position and resign as the vice-presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar, because it is the turn of the South, and Rivers State will stand by the agreement between the North and the South,” he said.
Senator Abe also reaffirmed the coalition’s support for President Tinubu, declaring: “We are not just with Tinubu, We are with Tinubu. We are for Tinubu. We are by Tinubu. We are in Tinubu. We are Tinubu here in this coalition”, Senator Abe declared.
The event featured the presentation of candidates for various elective positions under the Rainbow Coalition.

John Bibor, Ephraim Godslove, Lazarus Ada, Chidibem Juliet & Okugbere Oghenetijiri

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