Connect with us

Politics

2015 Presidency: The Odds

Published

on

As the February 14
Presidential election draws nearer by the day, and parties put finishing touches to their strategies to either retain or gain power, permutations as to which party waxes more or gains more ground are rife. As events unfold, there is little doubt that the race will be between the ruling Peoples’ Democratic  Party (PDP) and the leading opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC).
Following the emergence of incumbent president, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and  former Head-of-State, General Mohammadu Buhar (GMB), as the candidates of the PDP and APC respectively, the battle for Nigeria’s presidency has begun in earnest.
As expected, both presidential candidates have as much chances of emerging victorious as their followers chose to portray or make keen observers believe. One certainty, however, is that at the end of the day, only one aspirant will emerge. So, what are the odds  against, or in favour of the two presidential gladiators.?
For GEJ, there is no doubt that the catch phrase, “A breath of fresh air” that was the crux of his pre-2011 campaign that saw him coast to victory in the 2011 election seem to have fizzled out. So have all the goodwills and promises of a better Nigeria.
Pundits have expressed the belief that the disillusionment trailing the GEJ presidency garnered so much momentum because it basically originated from what is largely seen as within the inner chambers of the PDP, the very heart of the party caucus.
Key areas in which GEJ has been identified to have given a lackluster attention and hence deemed to have failed could be summerised into corruption and insecurity, and a major advocate in this wise is former president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
Being a key figure in PDP, whatever the former president says cannot be dismissed as mere frivolity. Comparatively, there is the belief that no matter what can be said about former President Obasanjo, he at least made some efforts against corrupt officials when he was in charge, even if such efforts were often viewed as sectional and tokenistic.
In his recent autobiography titled “My Watch”, Obasanjo said of corruption in GEJ’s first tenure; “under Jonathan we seem to have gone from frying pan to fire. If in the past corruption was in the corridors of power, it would seem now to be in the sitting room, dinning room and bedroom of power”.
The former president further drove his point when he alleged that incremenating corruption-related documents against a former governor was ordered to be removed from a file because the culprit was close to GEJ.
As a result of his perceived inability to address issues of corruption, therefore, many Nigerians, as amplified by the opposition, do not see GEJ as ready to fight corruption, which no doubt, has over the years proven to be the bane of Nigeria’s woes, both within and outside the shores of Nigeria.
The same reason is given for GEJ’s inability to secure lives and properties in his domain, as exemplified by the increasing and more deadly activities of the terrorist sect, Boko Haram, which had sent thousands to their early grave, and has held over 200 Chibok secondary school girls hostage since April 15, 2014.
In a summarizing manner, the founder of Adoration Ministry, Enugu Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, during his end-of-year mass on the eve of 2015, said GEJ had surrounded himself with very corrupt officials. As a result, the President, he said, has turned a blind eye to their corrupt activities while millions of Nigerians wallow in abject poverty and endless insecurity.
According to Mbaka, “Jonathan has ruled for six years. We need a change. NEPA (electricity) is not working because of corruption. The privatization of public companies has not yielded any fruit because of corruption.
“Jonathan surrounded himself with very corrupt officers who advise him. Nigerians are sick and tired of wasting innocent lives without government doing enough to stop the destruction.
“Up till now, nobody knows the whereabouts of the innocent Chibok girls kidnapped by Boko Haram and we say we have a government that cannot guarantee the welfare, safety and security of the citizens.
“Nigerians are calling for change. We need change. We don’t want to move from bad luck to bad luck. Nigerians want to move from bad luck to good luck”, he said.
While acknowledging the stand by the opposition in a piece titled “Can Jonathan survive this blitzkriegs?”  in This Day, Simon Kolawole identified four categories of GEJ’s critics: Opposition figures and other political opponents; those who lost out in the political game; those northerners who are still bitter that Jonathan “hijacked” power after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010; and those who have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan as they are sincerely critical of certain aspects of his stewardship.
Kolawole had no qualms with opposition figures and other political opponents because they must do their bidding.
“There is no way APC would come out and praise Jonathan; that is political suicide. They want power. They want his job. Theirs is to say Jonathan or PDP has not done well and that if Nigerians give them a chance, they would do much better.
“This is a universal characteristic of opposition politics. You can argue that they do not always work with facts, but what is politicking? PDP would do the same if APC was in power”, he said.
For those who lost out in the political game, the writer observed that many politicians, who supported GEJ in 2010 and 2011, feel abandoned, “they feel like a deflated orange: squeezed, sucked and dumped. They feel Jonathan treated them to a one-night stand, whereas they wanted an affair.
“Some wanted appointments; others simply desired respect and recognition. But they are bitter that Jonathan jilted them after getting what he wanted. In no time, they became his sworn enemies”, he said.
The northerners who are embittered that GEJ hijacked their right after the death of President Yar’Adua feel so because they say when they conceded power to the South in 1999, they did it with the understanding that Obasanjo would do only one term. But he did the maximum two terms.
Consequently, PDP, as the ruling party, agreed to north/south power rotation every eight years. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died prematurely.
“Jonathan took over and refused to let so. To some northerners, there is nothing Jonathan can do to make them happy. Even if he turns Nigeria to Dubai, their message is clear; Thank you and just get out of here”, he said.
The last category, which have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan are merely genuinely bothered at his handling of critical issues such as corruption and Boko Haram.
“In truth, Jonathan lost a lot of sympathizers  with the Chibok School girls’ saga, which turned into the  ‘Na only you waka come’ tragicomedy in the corridors of power”, Kolawole concluded.
As a word of advise, and in seeming appreciation of the political scenario, Kolawole noted: “It is not in the best interest of President Jonathan to lump all his critics together. As a leader, he has to sit down, analyse his critics and their criticisms, and work out his actions and reactions appropriately.
“He sure has millions of critics, like any other leader. People criticize with different motives. People have different agenda even when they are saying the same thing. Unfortunately, you will miss the massage when you lump everyone together and respond to every critic and criticism with cynicism and antagonism”.
As is usual with incumbency and opposition in politics, the weakness of the ruling government is what opposition latches upon to score its points, and the APC, seem to be doing a good job of it.
Against an allegedly “weak” GEJ,  the APC,  which is the leading opposition party, has fielded a perceived “strong” candidate in GMB, based on his track record. One key factor that constitutes a plus to GMB is his brief tenure as Military Head of State from the 1st of January 2004 to August 2005.
Alongside his second in command, late Major-General Tunde Idiagbon, GMB launched the popular War Against Indiscipline (WAI), through which they attempted to set a new road-map for the country’s politics.
They introduced strict economic and political policies that have been widely described as “Buharism”. It saw him refuse to adopt the IMF conditionality to devalue the naira. While his critics blamed him then for the resultant job losses, closure of some businesses, and decline in living standards, his admirers commended him for adopting unique economic measures that enabled his government to reduce inflation, curb import of needless goods and curtail crude oil theft.
Given his history as a leader with a strong character, GMB is also described as incorruptible and hence seem as the messiah that Nigeria needs to combat the ailing corruption-infested Nigerian economy.
Ironically, GMB’s critics also consider his strong personality as a minus, saying that he would not be a listening president like GEJ. But his followers have expressed strong feelings that the former Army General’s popularity is increasing by the day, and before February 14 where the pendulum for the presidency will swing to will be too glaring not to see in favour of the APC  candidate.
Moreso, as is popularly said,There is little doubt that Nigerians want to change, one that would loosen the stranglehold of corruption in the nation’s polity. What is, however, in contention is who represents that change so yearned for. Is it a repented GEJ, or a brand new GMB?

 

Soibi Max-Alalibo

Prof. Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman

Prof. Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman

Continue Reading

Politics

Senate Defends Passage Of State Police Bill

Published

on

The Senate has defended the passage of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (Alteration) (State Police) Bill, 2026, saying the proposed creation of state police is driven by national consensus and the country’s security needs rather than political considerations.

The Red Chamber passed the bill last Wednesday after more than two-thirds of senators voted in support.

In a statement issued yesterday by the Directorate of Media and Public Affairs, Office of the Senate Leader, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele described the bill as “a child of necessity and not of political expediency as well as a product of national consensus and not of cynicism.”

 

The senate leader said the proposal to establish state police was a matter of urgent public importance that could not be delayed because of political interests, given the country’s security challenges.

He explained that the proposal did not originate recently but emerged from memoranda submitted to the Senate Ad-hoc Committee on the Review of the 1999 Constitution.

According to him, the proposal underwent extensive consultations and rigorous scrutiny because of its sensitive nature.

Bamidele said the National Assembly consulted widely with the Executive, the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, the Conference of Speakers of State Legislatures of Nigeria, the leadership of the Nigeria Police and other stakeholders before passing the bill.

He added that during the public hearings conducted across the six geopolitical zones in July 2025, participants overwhelmingly supported the creation of state police.

“At each level of our consultation, nearly all stakeholders embraced the State Police Bill in the light of stark realities we are facing today,” he said.

The Senate leader noted that recommendations from the Nigeria Police contributed to the bill, particularly on accountability and oversight mechanisms aimed at preventing abuse of state police by political actors.

According to him, the police’s support for the proposal underscores its national significance in tackling insecurity at the state and local levels.

Bamidele also said the bill received broad bipartisan backing in both chambers of the National Assembly.

“Even though the APC is the majority, there are members of opposition parties — PDP, ADC, NDC and Labour Party — that exercised their discretion in favour of the Bill, mainly in the national interest and not on parochial basis.

“In the Senate, for instance, 84 out of 109 members voted clause by clause in support of the Bill. This accounted for 77.06 per cent approval at the Senate alone,” he said.

He argued that national security should transcend political affiliations, saying political actors in other countries often set aside partisan interests to support initiatives that strengthen security.

Bamidele called on opposition parties to contribute constructive ideas that would promote peace and stability, adding that they have a responsibility to offer alternatives that would strengthen the country.

“Even when they disagree on some grounds, they are under obligations to provide credible and useful ideas that can make our nation better and greater. Unfortunately, they have not passed this critical test of opposition democracy,” he said.

 

Continue Reading

News

Probe N6.3bn Constituency Funds Or Face Legal Action, SERAP Tells Akpabio, Abbas

Published

on

The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has called on Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, and Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, to refer allegations of the diversion or non-accounting of over ?6.3 billion in constituency project funds to anti-corruption agencies for investigation and possible prosecution.

 

The group also urged the National Assembly leadership to ensure that anyone found culpable is prosecuted where sufficient admissible evidence exists, while all diverted or unaccounted public funds are recovered and paid into the treasury.

 

In a letter dated June 27, 2026, and signed by its Deputy Director, Kolawole Oluwadare, SERAP said the allegations were contained in the Auditor-General of the Federation’s 2022 Annual Report, published on September 9, 2025.

 

The organisation disclosed this in a statement signed and released by Oluwadare, yesterday.

 

SERAP also asked Akpabio and Abbas to disclose the identities of contractors and companies, including their shareholders and beneficial owners, that allegedly received constituency project funds but failed to execute the projects.

 

It gave the National Assembly seven days to act on its recommendations, warning that it would institute legal proceedings should the legislature fail to respond.

 

“We would be grateful if the recommended measures are taken within seven days of the receipt and/or publication of this letter. If we have not heard from you by then, SERAP shall take all appropriate legal actions to compel you and the National Assembly to comply with our request in the public interest,” the letter stated.

 

It said, “The allegations involve several federal ministries, departments and agencies, including the Environmental Health Registration Council of Nigeria (EHORECON); the Federal College of Animal Health and Production Technology, Volm; the Federal Polytechnic, Udana; the National Agency for the Prohibition of Trafficking in Persons (NAPTIP); and the National Institute of Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS).

 

“The Auditor-General identified numerous cases of payments into private bank accounts, contracts awarded without due process, payments for contracts not executed or services not rendered, undocumented expenditures, inflated contracts, procurement irregularities and failures to account for public funds, recommending in each case that the funds be recovered and remitted to the treasury.

 

“According to the 2022 audited report, contained in pages 367 to 396, the Environmental Health Registration Council of Nigeria (EHORECON or Council) Abuja paid over ‘N22 million [N22,944,565.16] into the private account of some members of staff of the Council from the Constituency Projects Fund Account.

 

“There ‘was no evidence of the utilization of the funds and no explanations on the purpose for the payment of such amount into the individual accounts.”

 

SERAP added, “The Council (EHORECON) also in 2021 ‘awarded suspicious consultancy contracts of over N12 million [N12,030,818.29] for the development of Modern Abattoirs in Kebbi State and the supervision of 7 projects in Kebbi, Jigawa, and Headquarters Abuja.

“The money was to ‘produce bills of quantity, architectural design, structural design, mechanical design, and electrical designs for the contracts and supervision.’ But ‘the ‘items could not be found.’”

 

Altogether, SERAP said the Auditor-General’s 2022 report alleged EHORECON paid more than ?1.8 billion in constituency project funds through questionable transactions.

 

For the Federal College of Animal Health and Production Technology, Vom, SERAP said the institution “in 2022 reportedly ‘paid over N279 million [N279,700,500.00] to 3 contractors to empower and train youths in selected vocational areas in Borgu and Kontagora, Niger State, train women and youths in entrepreneurship in Niger East Senatorial District and to train youths and women in agro production and self-reliance in Barki Ladi/Riyom Federal Constituency, Plateau State.

 

“But the money was paid to the contractors without any document.’”

 

Other irregularities involving the college include another ?279.7 million in mobilisation fees allegedly paid without documentation, and more than ?629.4 million paid to unqualified contractors for various constituency projects without evidence of due process, contract advertisements or details of the contractors.

 

SERAP further alleged that the Auditor-General’s report identified multiple financial irregularities involving the Federal Polytechnic, Ukana, Akwa Ibom State, including over ?407 million allegedly paid as mobilisation fees without supporting documents, more than ?399 million paid to unqualified contractors, contracts allegedly inflated by over ?192 million, over ?279 million paid for projects not fully executed, ?50 million allegedly paid for an unexecuted borehole project, and more than ?83 million disbursed without the required documentation or approvals.

 

It also alleged that NAPTIP reportedly irregularly awarded contracts worth over ?21.8 million, paid more than ?176.8 million for logistics and consultancy services without supporting documents, and disbursed over ?89.6 million and ?4.4 million for projects that were allegedly not executed.

 

The report also alleged that NILDS failed to submit audited financial statements for 2012 to 2022, did not remit over ?15 million in stamp duties, and spent ?1.6 million without authorisation from the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation.

 

SERAP said the report recommended the recovery of the affected funds and their remittance to the treasury.

 

It argued that corruption in constituency projects disproportionately affects poor and vulnerable Nigerians by diverting resources meant for public services and development.

 

It added that the National Assembly, in exercising its oversight responsibilities, should demonstrate leadership by ensuring accountability in the management of constituency project funds.

 

The organisation further argued that the allegations, if established, would amount to breaches of the Constitution, the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and the Public Procurement Act 2007, which require transparency, accountability and due process in the management of public resources.

Continue Reading

Politics

Parties’ Deregistration: How Justice Lifu Overruled Appeal Court Justices

Published

on

Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja on Monday brushed aside the order of the Court of Appeal in Abuja which ordered him to stay proceedings in a suit that sought deregistration of the African Democratic Party (ADC), Accord Party and three others.
The Court of Appeal in a unanimous decision of a panel of three Justices had on May 22, 2026 directed the Federal High Court Judge not to proceed with the suit until an appeal pending before them and filed by Accord Party is resolved.
In a Certified True Copy Enrol Order of the Superior Court, Justices Mohammed Danjuma, Adebukola Banjoko and Oyejoju Oyewumi asked the lower Court Judge to stay proceedings until all issues on the appeal filed by the Accord Party were resolved
Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State had, through the Accord Party, applied to justice Lifu to join him as a defendant in the deregistration legal battle instituted by a group of former legislators.
The contention of the Osun State governor was that he had a stake in the Accord Party, being the platform he was seeking re-election in the August 15 gubernatorial poll in the state.
In his ruling, Justice Lifu on April 27 ruled against the Osun State governor, rejecting his request to be joined in the suit to defend his own position and interest.
Not satisfied with the Federal High Court decision, the Osun State governor, through his lawyer, Musibau Adetunbi (SAN), moved to the Court of Appeal in Abuja where he challenged the Justice Lifu decision to refuse to allow him join the suit.
After listening to the argument canvassed, especially that he has interest to protect as Accord Party gubernatorial candidate for Osun State governorship election, the three Justices of the Court of Appeal, unanimously directed Justice Lifu to allow them look into the grievances of the governor.
In specific terms, the Court of Appeal Justices directed Justice Lifu not to proceed further with the matter and fixed October 27 to determine the interlocutory appeal of the appellant.
However, when the certified enroll order and notice of appeal were served on Justice Peter Lifu by Mr Adetunbi (SAN), the judge rejected it on the ground that it was a ploy to arrest his judgment in the matter.
Although the judge had adjourned his judgment delivery in the matter indefinitely, he finally made a dramatic turn around on Monday and proceeded to deliver the judgment that has now proscribed the five political parties.

 

Continue Reading

Trending